IIASA Arctic Futures Initiative And Finland, Country Of/On Extremes?

The current situation in the Arctic reflects the complex interplay between environmental and social sustainability, as well as economic development in the midst of human influences such as growing population pressures and the impacts of climate change. Decision makers, of all types and at all scales, need to reconcile continued economic development within the Arctic while safeguarding environmental and socio-cultural values and livelihoods. The goal of IIASA Arctic Futures Initiative (AFI) is a holistic integrated assessment, including a decision-support process and science diplomacy that contribute to informed decision-making about sustainable development in the Arctic. Holistic is herein defined as international, interdisciplinary, and inclusive. Within the decision-support process we integrate stakeholder perspectives, geospatial data (socio-economic and biophysical), and governance analyses. This systems analysis approach further involves plausible futures that are designed to balance economic prosperity, environmental protection and societal wellbeing over time frames that address realistic risks. The AFI will prioritize an integrated Arctic science agenda by engaging relevant local, science, policy, and business communities in a collaborative and inclusive environment. Deliverables from the integrated assessments, the decision-support process, and the science diplomacy enable to create future options, without advocacy. The outcomes support policy makers by helping them better understand a range of options and alternatives and the potential consequences of implementation based on those options. This presentation gives an introduction of the AFI. The seed for the Arctic Futures Initiative was planted in a seminar on policy support for research, organized by the Finnish Prime Minister’s Office, the Academy of Finland, and IIASA

Carbonyl compounds in boreal coniferous forest air in Hyytiälä, Southern Finland

International audienceA variety of C1-C12 carbonyl compounds were measured in the air of a boreal coniferous forest located in Hyytiälä, Southern Finland. 24-h samples were collected during March and April in 2003 using DNPH (2,4-dinitrophenyl hydrazine) coated C18-cartridges and analyzed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Altogether 22 carbonyl compounds were quantified. The most abundant carbonyls were acetone (24-h average 1340 ng/m3), formaldehyde (480 ng/m3) and acetaldehyde (360 ng/m3). In contrast, scaling of concentrations against reactivity with the hydroxyl (OH) radical significantly increased the contribution of larger aldehydes and ketones (e.g. decanal, octanal and 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one). Concentrations of monoterpene reaction products nopinone (9 ng/m3) and limona ketone (5 ng/m3) were low compared to the most abundant low molecular weight carbonyls. The total concentration of carbonyl compounds in Hyytiälä in April/March 2003 was much higher than the concentration of aromatic hydrocarbons and monoterpenes in April 2002. Lifetimes of the measured carbonyls with respect to reactions with OH radicals, ozone (O3), and nitrate (NO3) radicals as well as photolysis were estimated. The main sinks for most of the carbonyl compounds in Hyytiälä in springtime are expected to be reactions with the OH radical and photolysis. For 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one and limona ketone also reactions with ozone are important. The sources of carbonyl compounds are presently highly uncertain. Due to the relatively short lifetimes of aldehydes and ketones, secondary biogenic and anthropogenic sources, that is oxidation of volatile organic compounds, and primary biogenic sources are expected to dominate in Hyytiälä

A new feedback mechanism linking forests, aerosols, and climate

International audienceThe possible connections between the carbon balance of ecosystems and aerosol-cloud-climate interactions play a significant role in climate change studies. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, whereas the net effect of atmospheric aerosols is to cool the climate. Here, we investigated the connection between forest-atmosphere carbon exchange and aerosol dynamics in the continental boundary layer by means of multiannual data sets of particle formation and growth rates, of CO2 fluxes, and of monoterpene concentrations in a Scots pine forest in southern Finland. We suggest a new, interesting link and a potentially important feedback among forest ecosystem functioning, aerosols, and climate: Considering that globally increasing temperatures and CO2 fertilization are likely to lead to increased photosynthesis and forest growth, an increase in forest biomass would increase emissions of non-methane biogenic volatile organic compounds and thereby enhance organic aerosol production. This feedback mechanism couples the climate effect of CO2 with that of aerosols in a novel way

Arctic Policies and Strategies – Analysis, Synthesis, and Trends

The scientific report Arctic Policies and Strategies – Analysis, Synthesis and Trends delivers a holistic analysis of the policies, strategies, and declarations of the relevant Arctic stakeholders. It also includes new and/or emerging trends of Arctic governance and geopolitics in the early 21st century. The analysis, using quantitative and qualitative methods, is based on a coding of the text of 56 policy documents (in 1996-2019), namely: i) the strategies and policies of the Arctic States and the Arctic Council Observer States; ii) the policies and declarations of the Arctic Indigenous peoples’ organizations (Permanent Participants); and iii) the main Arctic Council chairmanship programs and ministerial declarations. It considers how different Arctic actors define and address issues around the following: the human dimension, governance, international cooperation, environmental protection, pollution, climate change, security, safety, economy, tourism, infrastructure, and science & education. Each document was read and analyzed thoroughly; quotes were selected and coded and then used to compare and contrast (percentage- wise) how the different documents address the above issues. For each category of stakeholder, the findings are compared within the category and then discussed with each other category-wise. Our study shows that the most-coded quotes of the Arctic States’ policy documents relate to the Governance, Economy, International Cooperation, and Human Dimension indicators, as well as to a new Environmental Protection indicator (composed of Environmental Protection coupled with Pollution and Climate Change). The policy documents of the four Indigenous peoples’ organizations explicitly address issues surrounding Indigenous rights, although in different contexts, and also those related to the Governance indicator, both broadly and in detail. Unsurprisingly, all these documents emphasize the importance of ‘Traditional knowledge.’ The most-quoted indicator in the Arctic policies/strategies of the nine Arctic Council Observer states is the Science and Education indicator, followed by the International Cooperation and Economy indicators. The fourth most-quoted is the new Environmental Protection indicator (composed of Environmental Protection coupled with Pollution and Climate Change)

Arctic Policies and Strategies-Analysis, Synthesis, and Trends

The scientific report Arctic Policies and Strategies – Analysis, Synthesis and Trends delivers a holistic analysis of the policies, strategies, and declarations of the relevant Arctic stakeholders. It also includes new and/or emerging trends of Arctic governance and geopolitics in the early 21st century. The analysis, using quantitative and qualitative methods, is based on a coding of the text of 56 policy documents (in 1996-2019), namely: i) the strategies and policies of the Arctic States and the Arctic Council Observer States; ii) the policies and declarations of the Arctic Indigenous peoples’ organizations (Permanent Participants); and iii) the main Arctic Council chairmanship programs and ministerial declarations. It considers how different Arctic actors define and address issues around the following: the human dimension, governance, international cooperation, environmental protection, pollution, climate change, security, safety, economy, tourism, infrastructure, and science & education. Each document was read and analyzed thoroughly; quotes were selected and coded and then used to compare and contrast (percentage- wise) how the different documents address the above issues. For each category of stakeholder, the findings are compared within the category and then discussed with each other category-wise. Our study shows that the most-coded quotes of the Arctic States’ policy documents relate to the Governance, Economy, International Cooperation, and Human Dimension indicators, as well as to a new Environmental Protection indicator (composed of Environmental Protection coupled with Pollution and Climate Change). The policy documents of the four Indigenous peoples’ organizations explicitly address issues surrounding Indigenous rights, although in different contexts, and also those related to the Governance indicator, both broadly and in detail. Unsurprisingly, all these documents emphasize the importance of ‘Traditional knowledge.’ The most-quoted indicator in the Arctic policies/strategies of the nine Arctic Council Observer states is the Science and Education indicator, followed by the International Cooperation and Economy indicators. The fourth most-quoted is the new Environmental Protection indicator (composed of Environmental Protection coupled with Pollution and Climate Change)

Integrated land ecosystem–atmosphere processes study (iLEAPS) assessment of global observational networks

Long-term, continuous observations are needed for Earth system investigations and evaluation of simulations. The atmospheric and ecological communities have independently established field sites that have been running for many decades and are integrated into global networks. In the past decade, the importance of long-term observational networks focused on land ecosystem-atmosphere exchange, and the processes controlling land-atmosphere coupling, had been increasingly recognized and has led to the building of a global network of water, carbon and energy flux sites. This is an important step but further enhancements are necessary in order to quantify all of the land-atmosphere processes that need to be included in Earth system models. This paper describes the current land ecosystem-atmosphere measurement capabilities and presents the status and needs for global observational networks

Explaining regional variation in elective hip and knee arthroplasties in Finland 2010-2017-a register-based cohort study

Background A persistent research finding in industrialised countries has been regional variation in medical practices including elective primary hip and knee arthroplasty. The aim of the study was to examine regional variations in elective total hip and knee arthroplasties over time, and the proportions of these variations which can be explained by individual level or area-level differences in need. Methods We obtained secondary data from the Care Register for Health Care to study elective primary hip and knee arthroplasties in total Finnish population aged 25 + years between 2010 and 2017. Two-level Poisson regression models - individuals and hospital regions - were used to study regional differences in the incidence of elective hip and knee arthroplasties in two time periods: 2010 - 2013 and 2014 - 2017. The impact of several individual level explanatory factors (age, socioeconomic position, comorbidities) and area-level factors (need and supply of operations) was measured with the proportional change in variance. Predictions of incidence were measured with incidence rate ratios. The relative differences in risk of the procedures in regions were described with median rate ratios. Results We found small and over time relatively stable regional variation in hip arthroplasties in Finland, while the variation was larger in knee arthroplasties and decreased during the study period. In 2010 - 2013 individual socioeconomic variables explained 10% of variation in hip and 4% in knee arthroplasties, an effect that did not emerge in 2014 - 2017. The area-level musculoskeletal disorder index reflecting the need for care explained a further 44% of the variation in hip arthroplasties in 2010 - 2013, but only 5% in 2014 - 2017 and respectively 22% and 25% in knee arthroplasties. However, our final models explained the regional differences only partially. Conclusions Our results suggest that eligibility criteria in total hip and knee arthroplasty are increasingly consistent between Finnish hospital districts. Factors related to individual level and regional level need both had an important role in explaining regional variations. Further study is needed on the effect of health policy on equity in access to care in these operations.Peer reviewe