Modelling the diffusion and operation of anaerobic digestions in Great Britain under future scenarios within the scope of water-energy-food nexus

The paper aims to understand the impacts of the spatial and temporal diffusion of Anaerobic Digestion (AD) on the Water Energy Food (WEF) nexus and to quantify the associated environmental, social and economic benefits. Contemporary tight carbon reduction targets urge the need to deploy renewable energy technologies however due to interdependencies across the WEF nexus, various technologies are beneficial for some but not all sectors. This paper quantifies the impacts of future possible AD technology diffusion choices on the environment, society and economy. This can aid decision makers to identify the potential consequences of various AD alternatives within the next three decades. The study considers an integrated WEF nexus approach and accounts for the interdependencies within the nexus. This was done by developing an Agent-Based Model (ABM) and simulating the relations between the main players within the nexus, thus examining the upscaling of AD diffusion and its consequences for water consumption, energy production, transportation, landfill use, food waste processing and digestate generation. Three future WEF nexus scenarios, that reflect potential alternatives of society and technology in Great Britain up to 2050, were utilised by the ABM implementation to test the sensitivity of AD diffusion choices. These scenarios describe possible changes to lifestyle, governance, technologies, climate, and social structures. Accounting for the uncertainty associated with such future simulations, the Monte Carlo method was employed to estimate the potential variations in scenario outputs. Results suggest that decentralisation results in the largest carbon reduction, but can incur more costs. Centralisation consumes 35% more water but produces 37% more energy (biogas). The paper has visualised the scenario outputs graphically to highlight the consequences of neglecting the inter-relationships between environmental, social and economic aspects of AD

Anaerobic digestion: a prime solution for water, energy and food nexus challenges

We solve the problem of identifying one or more optimal patterns of anaerobic digestion (AD) installation across the UK, by considering existing installations, the current feedstock potential and the project growth of the potential via population, demography and urbanization. We test several scenarios for the level of adoption of the AD operations in the community under varying amounts of feedstock supply, which may arise from change in food waste or energy crops generation via other policies and incentives. For the most resilient scales of solutions, we demonstrate for the UK the net energy production (bio-gas and electricity) from AD (and so the avoided emissions from grid energy), the mass of bio-waste processed (and avoided land-fill), and the quantum of digestate produced (as a proxy for avoided irrigation and fertilizer production). In order to simulate the AD innovation within WEF nexus we use agent based modelling (ABM) owing to its bottom-up approach and capability of modelling complex systems with relatively low level data and information

Reducing industrial energy demand in the UK: A review of energy efficiency technologies and energy saving potential in selected sectors

Currently UK industrial and manufacturing sectors are facing dual challenges of contributing to national 80% reduction targets in CO2 emissions by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels) and improving economic competitiveness in the face of low cost imports. Since energy consumption is the main source of CO2 emissions and directly related to products being manufactured, improving energy efficiency in energy intensive sectors is key to achieve CO2 targets. Energy consumption is unlikely to meet the targets unless energy efficiency opportunities and technologies are fully explored and timely changes are made to business models and policies This study explores potential energy efficiency improvements from three perspectives: system efficiency of steam networks, waste heat recovery technologies and bioenergy/waste utilisation. Two UK energy-intensive sectors, iron and steel, and food and drink, are selected for analysis and discussion. Potential business models for energy efficiency are also reviewed as there are now a variety of energy service companies who can support adoption of appropriate technologies. Furthermore, drivers and barriers to the adoption of energy efficiency technologies are considered in this paper revealing the factors affecting the diffusion of energy efficient and waste heat recovery technologies and their interactions and interdependencies to energy consumptions. Findings show that it is possible to achieve energy consumption reduction in excess of 15% from a technical point of view, however improving energy efficiency in UK industry has been hindered due to some inter-related technical, economic, regulatory and social barriers. The findings help to demonstrate the significant potential for energy efficiency improvement in two industrial sectors, as well as showing the specific types of technologies relevant for different sectoral processes. The range of business models show opportunities for implementation and for developing innovative business models, addressing barriers, and using enablers to accelerate the diffusion of energy efficiency technologies in UK industry

Anaerobic Digestion of food waste:eliciting sustainable water-energy-food nexus practices with Agent Based Modelling and visual analytics

Food waste is a problem for which solutions are recognised but not readily put into practice. What should be the primary objective, reducing or eliminating surplus food production, requires great change within social, cultural and economic structures. The secondary approach of redistributing surplus food to areas of deficit (in terms of socioeconomic groups and/or geographic regions) involves a significant logistical burden, and suffers the same issues as with the elimination of waste. The least desirable, but perhaps most practicable approach, is the use of food waste as a feedstock for Anaerobic Digestion (AD). The strategic adoption of AD can therefore be seen as an important step towards mitigating food waste, but the implementation of efficient AD systems on a large (county/region) scale involves significant complexity. The optimal number, size and location of AD plants, and whether they arecentralised versus decentralised, may be determined by considering factors such as supply and proximity to feedstock, transport links, emission hazards and social impact. Reaching balanced and objective decisions when faced with such disparate criteria is inevitably very difficult. To address this problem we prototype and evaluate a decision support tool for county-scale AD planning. Our approach is a hybridised Agent Based Model (ABM) with a Multi Objective Optimisation. We capture the spatio-temporal dependencies that exist in the water, energy and food systems associated with energy derived from food waste using Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The use of Visual Analytics in the form of Interactive Multi Criteria analysis offers a means to communicate the co-benefits and trade-offs that may emerge, as well as prioritise the AD strategies. Specifically, the method supports exploration of the social, environmental and economic impact of different AD strategies and decisions, linked to current issues, namely AD scale and adoption. The interactive MCA allows users to explore and understand the WEF impact of different implementations and management policies, based on the weighting of criteria. The results highlight a trade-off between transport costs and social acceptability for the AD centralised versus decentralised strategies. When low carbon options are more important, then slow, steady and aggressive decentralised strategies are the closest to the ideal, with centralised aggressive being the furthest from the ideal - i.e. worst option. Conversely, when Energy production is considered with a greater weighting, then aggressive scaling up in a centralised approach is best with slow and steady approaches being further from the ideal. The framework has demonstrated that it permits a space for dialogue and transparent prioritization of AD strategies based on WEF nexus impacts

Engaging stakeholders in research to address water-energy-food (WEF) nexus challenges

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet, stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs—in this case orientated around a number of cases studies—are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling-up innovations in the nexus space, to contribute insights to policy and decision making

Anaerobic digestion: a prime solution for water, energy and food nexus challenges

We solve the problem of identifying one or more optimal patterns of anaerobic digestion (AD) installation across the UK, by considering existing installations, the current feedstock potential and the project growth of the potential via population, demography and urbanization. We test several scenarios for the level of adoption of the AD operations in the community under varying amounts of feedstock supply, which may arise from change in food waste or energy crops generation via other policies and incentives. For the most resilient scales of solutions, we demonstrate for the UK the net energy production (bio-gas and electricity) from AD (and so the avoided emissions from grid energy), the mass of bio-waste processed (and avoided land-fill), and the quantum of digestate produced (as a proxy for avoided irrigation and fertilizer production). In order to simulate the AD innovation within WEF nexus we use agent based modelling (ABM) owing to its bottom-up approach and capability of modelling complex systems with relatively low level data and information

Anaerobic digestion: A prime solution for water, energy and food nexus challenges

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record1st International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Resource Use in Food Chains, ICSEF 2017, 19-20 April 2017, Berkshire, UKWe solve the problem of identifying one or more optimal patterns of anaerobic digestion (AD) installation across the UK, by considering existing installations, the current feedstock potential and the project growth of the potential via population, demography and urbanization. We test several scenarios for the level of adoption of the AD operations in the community under varying amounts of feedstock supply, which may arise from change in food waste or energy crops generation via other policies and incentives. For the most resilient scales of solutions, we demonstrate for the UK the net energy production (bio-gas and electricity) from AD (and so the avoided emissions from grid energy), the mass of bio-waste processed (and avoided land-fill), and the quantum of digestate produced (as a proxy for avoided irrigation and fertilizer production). In order to simulate the AD innovation within WEF nexus we use agent based modelling (ABM) owing to its bottom-up approach and capability of modelling complex systems with relatively low level data and information

Reducing industrial energy demand in the UK: A review of energy saving technologies and maximum potential in the selected sectors

Currently UK industrial and manufacturing sectors are facing dual challenges of contributing to national 80% reduction targets in CO2 emissions by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels) and improving economic competitiveness in the face of low cost imports. Since energy consumption is the main source of CO2 emissions and directly related to products being manufactured, improving energy efficiency in energy intensive sectors is key to achieve CO2 targets. Energy consumption is unlikely to meet the targets unless energy efficiency opportunities and technologies are fully explored and timely changes are made to business models and policies This study explores potential energy efficiency improvements from three perspectives: system efficiency of steam networks, waste heat recovery technologies and bioenergy/waste utilisation. Two UK energy-intensive sectors, iron and steel, and food and drink, are selected for analysis and discussion. Potential business models for energy efficiency are also reviewed as there are now a variety of energy service companies who can support adoption of appropriate technologies. Furthermore, drivers and barriers to the adoption of energy efficiency technologies are considered in this paper revealing the factors affecting the diffusion of energy efficient and waste heat recovery technologies and their interactions and interdependencies to energy consumptions. Findings show that it is possible to achieve energy consumption reduction in excess of 15% from a technical point of view, however improving energy efficiency in UK industry has been hindered due to some inter-related technical, economic, regulatory and social barriers. The findings help to demonstrate the significant potential for energy efficiency improvement in two industrial sectors, as well as showing the specific types of technologies relevant for different sectoral processes. The range of business models show opportunities for implementation and for developing innovative business models, addressing barriers, and using enablers to accelerate the diffusion of energy efficiency technologies in UK industry

Predictive value of pathological and immunohistochemical parameters for axillary lymph node metastasis in breast carcinoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background/Objective</p> <p>While several prognostic factors have been identified in breast carcinoma, the clinical outcome remains hard to predict for individual patients. Better predictive markers are needed to help guide difficult treatment decisions. Axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) is one of the most important prognostic determinants in breast carcinoma; however, the reasons why tumors vary in their capability to result in axillary metastasis remain unclear. Identifying breast carcinoma patients at risk for ALNM would improve treatment planning. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with ALNM in breast carcinoma, with particular emphasis on basal-like phenotype.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Breast carcinoma patients (n = 210) who underwent breast conserving surgery and axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) (level I and II) or modified radical mastectomy were included in this study. Pathological and immunohistochemical data including individual receptor/gene status was collected for analysis. The basal phenotype status was ascertained using the basal cytokeratin markers CK5, CK14, CK17 and EGFR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ALNM was found in 55% (n = 116) of the patients. On univariate analysis, multicentric disease, large tumor size (>2 cm), vascular and lymphatic invasion, epithelial hyperplasia, necrosis, in situ carcinoma and perineural invasion were associated with higher risk for ALNM, whereas CK5, CK14, EGFR positivity and basal-like tumor type were associated with lower risk. On multivariate analysis, CK5 positivity (OR 0.003, 95%CI 0.000-0.23, p = 0.009) and lymphatic/vascular invasion (OR 17.94, 95%CI 4.78-67.30, p < 0.001) were found to be independent predictors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although the value of complete ALND has been questioned in invasive breast cancer patients, treatment decisions for breast carcinoma have been influenced by many parameters, including lymph node status. Since histopathologic characteristics and expression of biological markers varies among the same histologic subtypes of breast carcinoma, specific clinical and histopathologic features of the primary tumor and ALN status like sentinel node might be used to tailor the loco-regional and systemic treatment in different clinical settings.</p

An Assessment of Contaminants in UK Road-Verge Biomass and the Implications for Use as Anaerobic Digestion Feedstock

Biomass from harvested road-verge herbage has potential value as a feedstock for anaerobic digestion (AD) energy plants. However, the proximity to road traffic related pollution sources introduces the possibility of contamination by potentially toxic elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Potential sources of pollution from road traffic emissions are identified and the consequent likelihood of certain contaminants being present at elevated levels is assessed. Samples of road verge biomass harvested from selected locations in Lincolnshire UK for use in AD plants were analysed to produce a set of measurements for the presence of the contaminants of interest. The measured levels of these contaminants are compared to reported background levels in UK herbage and soils to assess if there is significant increased concentration in road-verge biomass. Samples of digestate from an AD plant using the road-verge biomass as feedstock were also analysed to determine if there is notable risk of transfer and concentration of contaminants into agricultural land where the digestate may be used for fertilisation. While elevated levels of contaminants were detected, they were not found in concentrations on road verge biomass at high enough levels to cause adverse effects or concerns for its safe use as an AD feedstock