Uncertainty and the management of multi-state ecosystems : an apparently rational route to collapse

environmental policy;ecology;management;decision making

Resilience: Accounting for the Noncomputable

Plans to solve complex environmental problems should always consider the role of surprise. Nevertheless, there is a tendency to emphasize known computable aspects of a problem while neglecting aspects that are unknown and failing to ask questions about them. The tendency to ignore the noncomputable can be countered by considering a wide range of perspectives, encouraging transparency with regard to conflicting viewpoints, stimulating a diversity of models, and managing for the emergence of new syntheses that reorganize fragmentary knowledg

What is the influence on water quality in temperate eutrophic lakes of a reduction of planktivorous and benthivorous fish? A systematic review protocol

Background: In lakes that have become eutrophic due to sewage discharges or nutrient runoff from land, problems such as algal blooms and oxygen deficiency often persist even when nutrient supplies have been reduced. One reason is that phosphorus stored in the sediments can exchange with the water. There are indications that the high abundance of phytoplankton, turbid water and lack of submerged vegetation seen in many eutrophic lakes may represent a semi-stable state. For that reason, a shift back to more natural clear-water conditions could be difficult to achieve. In some cases, though, temporary mitigation of eutrophication-related problems has been accomplished through biomanipulation: stocks of zooplanktivorous fish have been reduced by intensive fishing, leading to increased populations of phytoplankton-feeding zooplankton. Moreover, reduction of benthivorous fish may result in lower phosphorus fluxes from the sediments. An alternative to reducing the dominance of planktivores and benthivores by fishing is to stock lakes with piscivorous fish. These two approaches have often been used in combination. The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive has recently led to more stringent demands for measures against eutrophication, and a systematic review could clarify whether biomanipulation is efficient as a measure of that kind. Methods: The review will examine primary field studies of how large-scale biomanipulation has affected water quality and community structure in eutrophic lakes or reservoirs in temperate regions. Such studies can be based on comparison between conditions before and after manipulation, on comparison between treated and non-treated water bodies, or both. Relevant outcomes include Secchi depth, concentrations of oxygen, nutrients, suspended solids and chlorophyll, abundance and composition of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish, and coverage of submerged macrophytes.A Systematic review to this article was published on 22 May 2015: ernes, C., Carpenter, S.R., Gårdmark, A. et al. What is the influence of a reduction of planktivorous and benthivorous fish on water quality in temperate eutrophic lakes? A systematic review. Environ Evid 4, 7 (2015). DOI: 10.1186/s13750-015-0032-9Mistr

Pulgas-de-Água (Daphnia spp.)

Daphnia spp. (pulgas-de-água) - Os organismos do género Daphnia são micro-crustáceos planctónicos de água doce pertencentes à ordem Cladocera (classe Branchiopoda), que ocorrem em ecossistemas lênticos. Devem o nome de “pulga-de-água” aos movimentos natatórios irregulares, análogos aos saltos das pulgas “verdadeiras”.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Atmospheric Heating and Wind Acceleration: Results for Cool Evolved Stars based on Proposed Processes

A chromosphere is a universal attribute of stars of spectral type later than ~F5. Evolved (K and M) giants and supergiants (including the zeta Aurigae binaries) show extended and highly turbulent chromospheres, which develop into slow massive winds. The associated continuous mass loss has a significant impact on stellar evolution, and thence on the chemical evolution of galaxies. Yet despite the fundamental importance of those winds in astrophysics, the question of their origin(s) remains unsolved. What sources heat a chromosphere? What is the role of the chromosphere in the formation of stellar winds? This chapter provides a review of the observational requirements and theoretical approaches for modeling chromospheric heating and the acceleration of winds in single cool, evolved stars and in eclipsing binary stars, including physical models that have recently been proposed. It describes the successes that have been achieved so far by invoking acoustic and MHD waves to provide a physical description of plasma heating and wind acceleration, and discusses the challenges that still remain.Comment: 46 pages, 9 figures, 1 table; modified and unedited manuscript; accepted version to appear in: Giants of Eclipse, eds. E. Griffin and T. Ake (Berlin: Springer

Supramolecular interactions in clusters of polar and polarizable molecules

We present a model for molecular materials made up of polar and polarizable molecular units. A simple two state model is adopted for each molecular site and only classical intermolecular interactions are accounted for, neglecting any intermolecular overlap. The complex and interesting physics driven by interactions among polar and polarizable molecules becomes fairly transparent in the adopted model. Collective effects are recognized in the large variation of the molecular polarity with supramolecular interactions, and cooperative behavior shows up with the appearance, in attractive lattices, of discontinuous charge crossovers. The mean-field approximation proves fairly accurate in the description of the gs properties of MM, including static linear and non-linear optical susceptibilities, apart from the region in the close proximity of the discontinuous charge crossover. Sizeable deviations from the excitonic description are recognized both in the excitation spectrum and in linear and non-linear optical responses. New and interesting phenomena are recognized near the discontinuous charge crossover for non-centrosymmetric clusters, where the primary photoexcitation event corresponds to a multielectron transfer.Comment: 14 pages, including 11 figure

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio