Incorporating global dynamics to improve the accuracy of disease models: Example of a COVID-19 SIR model

Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics can be significantly improved by incorporating both local and global dynamics of the infection in disease models. To demonstrate improved accuracies, we extended a standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model by incorporating global dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. The extended SIR model assumes three possibilities for the susceptible individuals traveling outside of their community: They can return to the community without any exposure to the infection, they can be exposed and develop symptoms after returning to the community, or they can be tested positive during the trip and remain quarantined until fully recovered. To examine the predictive accuracies of the extended SIR model, we studied the prevalence of the COVID-19 infection in Kansas City, Missouri influenced by the COVID-19 global pandemic. Using a two-step model-fitting algorithm, the extended SIR model was parameterized using the Kansas City, Missouri COVID-19 data during March to October 2020. The extended SIR model significantly outperformed the standard SIR model and revealed oscillatory behaviors with an increasing trend of infected individuals. In conclusion, the analytics and predictive accuracies of disease models can be significantly improved by incorporating the global dynamics of the infection in the models.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figure

Using R to develop a corpus of full-text journal articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/01655515231171362This is the original proof of the accepted version of article. This has been accepted for print publication, and the date of OnlineFirst availability was July 14, 2023.No derivatives allowed.Over the past two decades, databases and the tools to access them in a simple manner have become increasingly available, allowing historical and modern-day topics to be merged and studied. Throughout the recent COVID-19 pandemic, for example, many researchers have reflected on whether any lessons learned from the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 could have been helpful in the present pandemic. This study developed a methodology needed to create a full-text corpus to answer this question. Most studies using text-mining applications rarely use full-text journal articles. This article presents a methodology used to develop a full-text journal article corpus using the R fulltext package. Using the proposed methodology, 2743 full-text journal articles were obtained. The aim of this article is to provide a methodology and supplementary codes for researchers to use the R fulltext package to curate a full-text journal corpus

Two novel human NUMB isoforms provide a potential link between development and cancer

We previously identified four functionally distinct human NUMB isoforms. Here, we report the identification of two additional isoforms and propose a link between the expression of these isoforms and cancer. These novel isoforms, NUMB5 and NUMB6, lack exon 10 and are expressed in cells known for polarity and migratory behavior, such as human amniotic fluid cells, glioblastoma and metastatic tumor cells. RT-PCR and luciferase assays demonstrate that NUMB5 and NUMB6 are less antagonistic to NOTCH signaling than other NUMB isoforms. Immunocytochemistry analyses show that NUMB5 and NUMB6 interact and complex with CDC42, vimentin and the CDC42 regulator IQGAP1 (IQ (motif) GTPase activating protein 1). Furthermore, the ectopic expression of NUMB5 and NUMB6 induces the formation of lamellipodia (NUMB5) and filopodia (NUMB6) in a CDC42- and RAC1-dependent manner. These results are complemented by in vitro and in vivo studies, demonstrating that NUMB5 and NUMB6 alter the migratory behavior of cells. Together, these novel isoforms may play a role in further understanding the NUMB function in development and cancer

A five-year hedonic price breakdown for desktop personal computer attributes in Brazil

The purpose of this article is to identify the attributes that discriminate the prices of personal desktop computers. We employ the hedonic price method in evaluating such characteristics. This approach allows market prices to be expressed as a function, a set of attributes present in the products and services offered. Prices and characteristics of up to 3,779 desktop personal computers offered in the IT pages of one of the main Brazilian newspapers were collected from January 2003 to December 2007. Several specifications for the hedonic (multivariate) linear regression were tested. In this particular study, the main attributes were found to be hard drive capacity, screen technology, main board brand, random memory size, microprocessor brand, video board memory, digital video and compact disk recording devices, screen size and microprocessor speed. These results highlight the novel contribution of this study: the manner and means in which hedonic price indexes may be estimated in Brazil

Tamoxifen and raloxifene modulate gap junction coupling during early phases of retinoic acid-dependent neuronal differentiation of NTera2/D1 cells

Gap junctions (GJ) represent a cellular communication system known to influence neuronal differentiation and survival. To assess a putative role of this system for neural effects of tamoxifen (TAM) and raloxifene (RAL), we used the human teratocarcinoma cell line NTera2/D1, retinoic acid (RA)-dependent neuronal differentiation of which is regulated by gap junctions formed of connexin43 (Cx43). As demonstrated by Western blot analysis, concentrations above 1 µmol/l for TAM, and 0.1 µmol/l for RAL lead to a temporary time- and concentration-dependent increase in Cx43 immunoreactivity, which reached a peak for TAM after 1 day and for RAL after 2 days. Immunocytochemical stainings revealed the increase in Cx43 immunoreactivity to result from an accumulation in intracellular compartments such as the Golgi apparatus or lysosomes. In addition, TAM and RAL were able to prevent the RA-dependent decrease of Cx43 immunoreactivity in NTera2/D1 cells, normally observed during neuronal differentiation. This suggested a suppression of neuronal differentiation to result from these substances. According to this, treatment of NTera2/D1 cells with 10 µmol/l TAM or RAL during weeks 1 and 2 of a 6 weeks RA-driven differentiation schedule impaired, whereas treatment during weeks 5 and 6 did not impair, neuronal differentiation of these cells. Modulation of GJ coupling between NTera2/D1 cells by TAM and RAL seems therefore to perturb early neuronal differentiation, whereas differentiated neurons in the mature brain seem to be not affected. These effects could be of importance for actions of TAM and RAL on early embryonic steps of nervous system formation

Exposure to the ROCK inhibitor fasudil promotes gliogenesis of neural stem cells in vitro

Fasudil is a clinically approved Rho-associated protein kinase (ROCK) inhibitor that has been used widely to treat cerebral consequences of subarachnoid hemorrhage. It is known to have a positive effect on animal models of neurological disorders including Parkinson's disease and stroke. However, its cellular effect on progenitor populations and differentiation is not clearly understood. While recent studies suggest that fasudil promotes the mobilization of neural stem cells (NSCs) from the subventricular zone in vivo and promotes the differentiation of the C17.2 cerebellar neuroprogenitor line in vitro, it is unclear whether fasudil is involved in the differentiation of primary NSCs. Here, we tested the effect of fasudil on mouse NSCs in vitro, and observed increased gliogenesis in NSCs derived from lateral ventricles. Upon treatment, fasudil promoted characteristics of neurogenesis including phenotypic changes in neural outgrowth and interkinetic nuclear-like movements as an immediate response, while Sox2 expression was maintained and GFAP expression increased. Moreover, the gliogenic response to fasudil medium was observed in both early postnatal and adult NSC cultures. Taken together, our results show that fasudil promotes the differentiation of NSCs into astroglial lineage, suggesting that it could be used to develop novel vitro gliogenesis models and regulate differentiation for neural repair