Unsicherheiten in der MMR-Impfstoffversorgung Schweiz : Prognose der Impfstoffnachfrage als entscheidungspolitisches Instrument

In jüngster Vergangenheit wurden in der Schweiz häufiger Versorgungsengpässe bei Impfstoffen festgestellt. Ursachen der Lieferengpässe sind in der Produktion und der Nachfrage von Impfstoffen zu finden. Akkurate Schätzungen zum zukünftigen Impfstoffbedarf können Unsicherheiten in der Impfstoffversorgung mindern. Der MMR-Impfstoff zur Immunisierung gegen Masern, Mumps und Röteln ist aufgrund der vergleichsweise tiefen Impfquote und hoher Inzidenzrate aktuell von besonderem Interesse. Diese Arbeit setzt sich zum Ziel, die zukünftige Entwicklung der MMR-Impfquote, der Impfnachfrage, sowie den Impfstoffbedarf abzuschätzen. Die Quantifizierung der nachfrageseitigen Unsicherheiten in der MMR-Impfstoffversorgung, ermöglicht Empfehlungen zur Höhe des erforderlichen Reservebestands abzugeben. Die qualitative Aufarbeitung des Forschungsstandes zu Einflussfaktoren, welche die MMR-Impfentscheidung determinieren, wurde mittels einer geeigneten Literaturstrategie vorgenommen. Daten des Swiss National Vaccination Coverage Survey bildeten die Grundlage zur quantitativen Analyse der Impfquote. Die Prognose der MMR-Impfquote bei 2-, 8- und 16-Jährigen wurde jeweils anhand eines Linear-Log-Modells und einer logistischen Regression durchgeführt, wobei sich die logistische Regression als Hauptmodell bewährte. Neben der MMR-Impfquotenprognose wurde die Impfstoffnachfrage basierend auf Bevölkerungsszenarien des Bundesamtes für Statistik berechnet. Die Höhe des Reservebestands wurde über die Prognosefehler der MMRImpfstoffnachfrage bestimmt um den Bedarf an Impfstoffen zu quantifizieren

Antizipieren von steuerlichen Einkommensentwicklungen oder blinde Achterbahnfahrt? : Überblick über die steuerlichen Einnahmeschätzungsmethoden und deren empirischen Anwendungsmöglichkeiten im Kanton Zürich

Die Prognose von Steuereinkommen hat für Verwaltungen im Rahmen des Budgetierungsprozesses eine grosse wirtschaftliche Relevanz. Die Schuldenbremse, welche 2003 eingeführt wurde, bindet seither den Ausgabespielraum der Verwaltungen auch gesetzlich an die Steuereinnahmen. Trotz einer generellen Verbesserung der Steuerprognosen fallen die Prognosefehler im Kanton Zürich in Jahren mit vielen strukturellen Veränderungen sehr hoch aus. Prognosemodelle versuchen durch den Einbezug von Indikatoren diese Veränderungen zu berücksichtigen, mit dem Ziel die Prognosefehler auf ein Minimum zu reduzieren. Diese Bachelorarbeit stellt quantitative und qualitative Methoden in der Theorie vor und prüft deren Anwendbarkeit auf den Kanton Zürich. Die Anwendung der quantitativen, auf mathematischer Grundlage basierenden Methoden bezieht sich auf den elastizitäts-, steuersatz- und modellbasierten Ansatz. Die Expertenprognose, Consensus- und Delphi-Methode sind die behandelten qualitativen Prognosemethoden. Die Anwendbarkeit der Modelle wurde für die Prognose der Einkommens-, Vermögens-, Gewinn- und Kapitalsteuererträge geprüft und analysiert. Die statistischen Auswertungen der quantitativen Methoden ermöglichen die Analyse und Vergleichbarkeit der Methoden. Die Vergleichbarkeit der Prognosequalität erfolgte durch eine Prognose auf das Jahr 2015. Die Beurteilung der qualitativen Methoden resultiert durch den empirischen Beizug der Theorie und Studien. Mittels theorie- und studienbasierter Grundlage kann dem Kanton Zürich eine Handlungsempfehlung in der Anwendung eines qualitativen Prognoseprozesses gemacht werden. Die Anwendung der quantitativen Methoden zeigt, dass der elastizitäts- und steuersatzbasierte Ansatz eine hohe Prognosequalität erreichen konnte. Dies ist auf eine hohe Korrelation der meisten Steuerertragsarten zur verwendeten Steuerbasis zurück zuführen. Der modellbasierte Ansatz, welcher die Steuererträge mit dem geschätzten kantonalen Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP) prognostizierte, zeigte für die Vermögens- und Kapitalerträge eine hohe Korrelation. Einen Effekt auf die Steuerertragsprognose hat neben der Korrelation auch die Prognosequalität der Steuerbasis. Das kantonale BIP als Steuerbasis hat den Nachteil, dass eine Vielzahl an Einflüssen die Prognosequalität mindert. Die Prognosefehler fallen dadurch höher aus, wodurch die Steuererträge schlechter geschätzt werden können. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass mit dem steuerbaren Einkommen, Vermögen, Kapital und Ertrag geringere Prognosefehler resultieren, weshalb diese Steuerbasen zu bevorzugen sind. Eine Einbindung quantitativer Methoden in einen qualitativen Prognoseprozess findet schon heute beim Kanton Zürich statt. Der qualitative Aspekt des Prozesses, also die Einbeziehung von Expertenmeinungen, hat ebenfalls eine Auswirkung auf die Prognosequalität. Um eine hohe Prognosequalität sicherzustellen, muss dabei die Beeinflussung der Experten untereinander vermieden, die Konsensgenerierung aber gefördert werden

Efficiency Optimization of a Hydrostatic System Using an Intermediate Pressure Line

The paper introduces a new hydraulic system based on a constant pressure system with the aim to increase the efficiency of actuation of hydraulic cylinders in mobile machines. Using a third pressure level located between high pressure and tank pressure called intermediate pressure the system enables additional pressure potentials from high pressure to intermediate pressure and from intermediate pressure to tank pressure. This reduces throttle losses at hydraulic cylinders when driven at low or medium loads. An accumulator connected to the intermediate pressure line is being charged or discharged in function of which pressure potential is currently used. Using the example of a typical duty cycle of a wheel loader the paper describes how the accumulator can be applied in order to reach best efficiency results for the new system. A simulation shows that the demand of hydraulic energy of the new system is 13% lower than of a conventional Load Sensing system

Resonance f0(1500)f_0(1500): Is it a scalar glueball ?

The ratios of partial widths for the decay of a glueball into two pseudoscalar mesons are calculated under the assumption that the production of light quark pairs ($u\bar u,d\bar d,s\bar s$) in soft gluon-\-induced reactions goes on within universal symmetry breaking. Parameter of the violation of flavour symmetry is fixed by the central hadron production data in high energy hadron collisions and/or by the ratios of radiative decay amplitudes $J/\Psi \to \gamma\eta/\gamma\eta'$ and $J/\Psi \to \gamma \phi \phi/\gamma \omega \omega$. The ratios of coupling constants $glueball\to\pi\pi,K\bar K, \eta\eta,\eta\eta'$ which are calculated with this parameter coincide reasonably with those of $f_0(1500)$, supporting an idea about glueball nature of $f_0(1500)$.Comment: LaTex, 8 pages, 2 .eps figures in one uuencoded file, uses epsfi

Instanton Effects in the Decay of Scalar Mesons

We show that instanton effects may play a crucial role in the decay of scalar mesons into two pseudoscalars. Particularly the branching ratios of two meson decays of the $f_0(1500)$, which is considered as a glue-ball candidate, are then compatible with an ordinary $q \bar{q}$-structure of this resonance and a small positive SU(3) mixing angle, close to a result recently calculated with the same instanton-induced force.Comment: 9 pages, uuencoded latex including two figure

Deterministic Control Strategy for a Hybrid Hydraulic System with Intermediate Pressure Line

The paper introduces a new hydraulic system for mobile machines based on a constant pressure system with the aim to increase the efficiency of actuation of hydraulic cylinders. Using a third pressure level located between high pressure and tank pressure called intermediate pressure the system enables additional pressure potentials from high pressure to intermediate pressure and from intermediate pressure to tank pressure. This reduces throttle losses at hydraulic cylinders when driven at low or medium loads. An accumulator connected to the intermediate pressure line is being charged or discharged in function of which pressure potential is currently used. Due to the discrete pressure potentials of the system a control strategy is required which reduces throttle losses at the proportional valves and allows maximum recuperation of potential energy. Best results can be obtained if the future loads on the cylinders are predictable. For this reason a Model Predictive Control (MPC) was developed for a wheel loader which was used as a reference system. By using its specific geometric properties the MPC allows a precise load prediction as a function of the piston’s position. Using the criteria of Bellman, an analytic online calculation of the optimum sequence of pressure potentials and their durations for one complete cylinder stroke can be effectuated using Dynamic Programming. This leads to a deterministic algorithm which is easy to handle and which can be implemented into an online control loop of the wheel loader. The paper furthermore shows how an optimal switching sequence and the optimal accumulator parameters can be found offline using multi objective optimization and closes with simulation results showing an increase of efficiency of 13% compared to a LS system at the example of a typical duty cycle of a wheel loader

Characterizing Online Vandalism: A Rational Choice Perspective

What factors influence the decision to vandalize? Although the harm is clear, the benefit to the vandal is less clear. In many cases, the thing being damaged may itself be something the vandal uses or enjoys. Vandalism holds communicative value: perhaps to the vandal themselves, to some audience at whom the vandalism is aimed, and to the general public. Viewing vandals as rational community participants despite their antinormative behavior offers the possibility of engaging with or countering their choices in novel ways. Rational choice theory (RCT) as applied in value expectancy theory (VET) offers a strategy for characterizing behaviors in a framework of rational choices, and begins with the supposition that subject to some weighting of personal preferences and constraints, individuals maximize their own utility by committing acts of vandalism. This study applies the framework of RCT and VET to gain insight into vandals' preferences and constraints. Using a mixed-methods analysis of Wikipedia, I combine social computing and criminological perspectives on vandalism to propose an ontology of vandalism for online content communities. I use this ontology to categorize 141 instances of vandalism and find that the character of vandalistic acts varies by vandals' relative identifiability, policy history with Wikipedia, and the effort required to vandalize

Side effects by oral application of atmospheric pressure plasma on the mucosa in mice

Cold atmospheric pressure plasma (CAP) has been investigated with promising results for peri-implant diseases treatment. However, prior to in-vivo applications of CAP sources in humans, short-term harmful mucosal damage or other unwanted side effects have to be reviewed. 180 male mice (B6C3F1) were divided into twelve treatment groups (n = 15). The right buccal cheek mucosa was treated with CAP. The first and second group each received continuous 10 sec irradiation with 2 different plasma sources (kINPen09, PS-MWM). The third group was treated with the kINPen09 for one minute. Control groups were treated with a corresponding dose of ultraviolet light for 8 seconds or 48 seconds and the other one was left untreated. The animals were weighed before and after treatment. The animals were sacrificed one day or one week after exposure. Stained tissue samples were histologically examined for tissue damage independently by two experienced pathologists. One day after CAP treatment histological analysis showed focal mucosal erosion with superficial ulceration and necrosis accompanied by a mild inflammatory reaction. One week after CAP treatment, the mucosal defects were completely re-epithelialized, associated with remnants of granulation tissue in the stroma irrespective of treatment duration. Furthermore, no cytological atypia was found and no severe weight loss occurred. The control groups did not show any alterations at all. CAP treatment led to a superficial mucosal damage that healed within few days. Nonetheless, further long-term experiments are necessary to exclude undesirable side effects after longer observation time. Particularly, potential carcinogenic effects must be ruled out prior to the application of CAP treatment in daily dental practice

Stellar Rotation in Young Clusters. II. Evolution of Stellar Rotation and Surface Helium Abundance

We derive the effective temperatures and gravities of 461 OB stars in 19 young clusters by fitting the H-gamma profile in their spectra. We use synthetic model profiles for rotating stars to develop a method to estimate the polar gravity for these stars, which we argue is a useful indicator of their evolutionary status. We combine these results with projected rotational velocity measurements obtained in a previous paper on these same open clusters. We find that the more massive B-stars experience a spin down as predicted by the theories for the evolution of rotating stars. Furthermore, we find that the members of binary stars also experience a marked spin down with advanced evolutionary state due to tidal interactions. We also derive non-LTE-corrected helium abundances for most of the sample by fitting the He I 4026, 4387, 4471 lines. A large number of helium peculiar stars are found among cooler stars with Teff < 23000 K. The analysis of the high mass stars (8.5 solar masses < M < 16 solar masses) shows that the helium enrichment process progresses through the main sequence (MS) phase and is greater among the faster rotators. This discovery supports the theoretical claim that rotationally induced internal mixing is the main cause of surface chemical anomalies that appear during the MS phase. The lower mass stars appear to have slower rotation rates among the low gravity objects, and they have a large proportion of helium peculiar stars. We suggest that both properties are due to their youth. The low gravity stars are probably pre-main sequence objects that will spin up as they contract. These young objects very likely host a remnant magnetic field from their natal cloud, and these strong fields sculpt out surface regions with unusual chemical abundances.Comment: 50 pages 18 figures, accepted by Ap

The importance of biofilm formation for cultivation of a Micrarchaeon and its interactions with its Thermoplasmatales host

Micrarchaeota is a distinctive lineage assigned to the DPANN archaea, which includes poorly characterised microorganisms with reduced genomes that likely depend on interactions with hosts for growth and survival. Here, we report the enrichment of a stable co-culture of a member of the Micrarchaeota (Ca. Micrarchaeum harzensis) together with its Thermoplasmatales host (Ca. Scheffleriplasma hospitalis), as well as the isolation of the latter. We show that symbiont-host interactions depend on biofilm formation as evidenced by growth experiments, comparative transcriptomic analyses and electron microscopy. In addition, genomic, metabolomic, extracellular polymeric substances and lipid content analyses indicate that the Micrarchaeon symbiont relies on the acquisition of metabolites from its host. Our study of the cell biology and physiology of a Micrarchaeon and its host adds to our limited knowledge of archaeal symbioses