Designating Spatial Priorities for Marine Biodiversity Conservation in the Coral Triangle

To date, most marine protected areas (MPAs) have been designated on an ad hoc basis. However, a comprehensive regional and global network should be designed to be representative of all aspects of biodiversity, including populations, species, and biogenic habitats. A good exemplar would be the Coral Triangle (CT) because it is the most species rich area in the ocean but only 2% of its area is in any kind of MPA. Our analysis consisted of five different groups of layers of biodiversity features: biogenic habitat, species richness, species of special conservation concern, restricted range species, and areas of importance for sea turtles. We utilized the systematic conservation planning software Zonation as a decision-support tool to ensure representation of biodiversity features while balancing selection of protected areas based on the likelihood of threats. Our results indicated that the average representation of biodiversity features within the existing MPA system is currently about 5%. By systematically increasing MPA coverage to 10% of the total area of the CT, the average representation of biodiversity features within the MPA system would increase to over 37%. Marine areas in the Halmahera Sea, the outer island arc of the Banda Sea, the Sulu Archipelago, the Bismarck Archipelago, and the Malaita Islands were identified as priority areas for the designation of new MPAs. Moreover, we recommended that several existing MPAs be expanded to cover additional biodiversity features within their adjacent areas, including MPAs in Indonesia (e.g., in the Birds Head of Papua), the Philippines (e.g., in the northwestern part of the Sibuyan Sea), Malaysia (e.g., in the northern part of Sabah), Papua New Guinea (e.g., in the Milne Bay Province), and the Solomon Islands (e.g., around Santa Isabel Island). An MPA system that covered 30% of the CT would include 65% of the biodiversity features. That just two-thirds of biodiversity was represented by one-third of the study area supports calls for at least 30% of the ocean to be in no-fishing MPA. This assessment provides a blueprint for efficient gains in marine conservation through the extension of the current MPA system in the CT region. Moreover, similar data could be compiled for other regions, and globally, to design ecologically representative MPAs

Evaluating annual severe coral bleaching risk for marine protected areas across Indonesia

Coral reefs face an uncertain future under global climate change, with thermal-induced bleaching increasing in frequency such that corals will soon experience annual severe bleaching (ASB). Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are therefore becoming increasingly important as a conservation tool. Here we evaluate (i) Indonesia’s coral reefs’ spatial variation in ASB, (ii) whether reefs projected to have a later onset of ASB (i.e. possible climate refugia) are protected within MPAs, and (iii) the ASB risk profiles for reefs related to MPAs receiving priority investments. Our results highlight considerable variability across Indonesia’s reefs being at risk of ASB. The ASB risk before 2028 is greater for coral reefs protected by MPAs versus those outside MPA boundaries. The ASB risk before 2025 is greater for coral reefs protected by priority MPAs versus those protected by non-priority MPAs. Overall, our results show that only ∼45% of the coral reef areas that are currently located within MPAs will likely act as thermal refugia (ASB > 2044). This is unsurprising given that the MPA network in Indonesia has been established over many decades, with most MPAs designated before suitable bleaching risk projections were available to inform MPA placement. Our results highlight the scope to further incorporate potential climate refugia for reefs into new MPA designations. This study also provides strategic information, which can support the development of Indonesia’s long-term MPA and coral reef conservation strategy to effectively manage, mitigate, and adapt to the impacts of climate change on coral reefs

Evaluating annual severe coral bleaching risk for marine protected areas across Indonesia

Coral reefs face an uncertain future under global climate change, with thermal-induced bleaching increasing in frequency such that corals will soon experience annual severe bleaching (ASB). Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are therefore becoming increasingly important as a conservation tool. Here we evaluate (i) Indonesia’s coral reefs’ spatial variation in ASB, (ii) whether reefs projected to have a later onset of ASB (i.e. possible climate refugia) are protected within MPAs, and (iii) the ASB risk profiles for reefs related to MPAs receiving priority investments. Our results highlight considerable variability across Indonesia’s reefs being at risk of ASB. The ASB risk before 2028 is greater for coral reefs protected by MPAs versus those outside MPA boundaries. The ASB risk before 2025 is greater for coral reefs protected by priority MPAs versus those protected by non-priority MPAs. Overall, our results show that only ∼45% of the coral reef areas that are currently located within MPAs will likely act as thermal refugia (ASB > 2044). This is unsurprising given that the MPA network in Indonesia has been established over many decades, with most MPAs designated before suitable bleaching risk projections were available to inform MPA placement. Our results highlight the scope to further incorporate potential climate refugia for reefs into new MPA designations. This study also provides strategic information, which can support the development of Indonesia’s long-term MPA and coral reef conservation strategy to effectively manage, mitigate, and adapt to the impacts of climate change on coral reefs

Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions

Coral bleaching and climate change; an investigation on thermal stress on coral reefs.

This dissertation addresses important issues in predicting coral bleaching. The goal of this study is to produce forecasts of bleaching that have a good and quantifiable quality. Thermal coral bleaching is a major, global threat to coral reefs. Coral bleaching is the potentially lethal condition where heterotrophic corals become white due to a heat stress induced decrease in concentration of their zooxanthellae – photosynthetic dinoflagellate symbionts (Symbiodinium spp.). Techniques have been developed utilizing observational estimates of sea surface temperature to make quantitative predictions of coral reef bleaching induced by thermal stress. This basic approach is widely used and forms the foundation of predictions for the global demise of coral reef ecosystems within the next 20–40 years, as a byproduct of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, predictions of thermally induced coral bleaching such as predictions based on Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) are cited as an important tool in managing reefs. Through interactions with other coral reef scientists and a literature study it became apparent that there are five problems which, if solved, would lead to improvements in forecasts about coral reef health. One problem is that (1) forecasts are not verified in a quantitative matter. Other issues in existing predictive techniques are (2) the use of one global threshold for all locations with reefs, (3) coarse temporal resolution of future sea surface temperature data used, (4) uncorrected errors in high frequency variability in sea surface temperature data from general circulation models used, and (5) the small number of general circulation models used in studies predicting future bleaching. In this dissertation I address all of these issues. I apply a forecast verification technique commonly used in meteorology to predictions of coral bleaching to verify and quantify the quality of the forecasts. With this verification technique it is possible to (a) measure improvements in the predictive technique, (b) quantitatively compare techniques, and (c) identify locality specific thresholds. I show that predictive techniques can be improved by tuning thresholds of the predictor per reef location instead of using one global threshold. This has the added advantage that for each reef the optimal thermal stress threshold becomes known allowing us to identify reefs at risk and more resilient reefs. This approach adds value to existing predictive techniques and enables comparison with other techniques. In this work I use weekly data of thermal stress experienced by corals where previous studies have used monthly data, this increases the quality of the forecasts. I also improve the quality of the forecasts by implementing a bias correction to the sea surface temperatures from general circulation models. This correction reduces difference in short term variability between observations and modeled sea surface temperatures. Projections of future thermal stress are also improved by using a large ensemble of models compared to two to four models used in previous studies. The ensemble approach is known to produce better predictions in other climate parameters

Coral bleaching at Little Cayman, Cayman Islands 2009

The global rise in sea temperature through anthropogenic climate change is affecting coral reef ecosystems through a phenomenon known as coral bleaching; that is, the whitening of corals due to the loss of the symbiotic zooxanthellae which impart corals with their characteristic vivid coloration. We describe aspects of the most prevalent episode of coral bleaching ever recorded at Little Cayman, Cayman Islands, during the fall of 2009. The most susceptible corals were found to be, in order, Siderastrea siderea, Montastraea annularis, and Montastraea faveolata, while Diplora strigosa and Agaricia spp. were less so, yet still showed considerable bleaching prevalence and severity. Those found to be least susceptible were Porites porites, Porites astreoides, and Montastraea cavernosa. These observations and other reported observations of coral bleaching, together with 29 years (1982–2010) of satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, were used to optimize bleaching predictions at this location. To do this a Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) and Peirce Skill Score (PSS) analysis was employed to calculate a local bleaching threshold above which bleaching was expected to occur. A threshold of 4.2 DHW had the highest skill, with a PSS of 0.70. The method outlined here could be applied to other regions to find the optimal bleaching threshold and improve bleaching predictions

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

Coral reefs are facing unprecedented mass bleaching and mortality events due to marine heatwaves and climate change. To avoid extirpation, corals must adapt. Individual variation in heat tolerance and its heritability underpin the potential for coral adaptation. However, the magnitude of heat tolerance variability within coral populations is largely unresolved. We address this knowledge gap by exposing corals from a single reef to an experimental marine heatwave. We found that double the heat stress dosage was required to induce bleaching in the most-tolerant 10%, compared to the least-tolerant 10% of the population. By the end of the heat stress exposure, all of the least-tolerant corals were dead, whereas the most-tolerant remained alive. To contextualize the scale of this result over the coming century, we show that under an ambitious future emissions scenario, such differences in coral heat tolerance thresholds equate to up to 17 years delay until the onset of annual bleaching and mortality conditions. However, this delay is limited to only 10 years under a high emissions scenario. Our results show substantial variability in coral heat tolerance which suggests scope for natural or assisted evolution to limit the impacts of climate change in the short-term. For coral reefs to persist through the coming century, coral adaptation must keep pace with ocean warming, and ambitious emissions reductions must be realized

Shapefile with the average year of onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) events in all the marine protected areas (MPAs) of Indonesia designated in January 2020

This shapefile/vector shows you the projected year beyond which a coral reef is expected to experience severe bleaching conditions annually based on the reef being exposed to at least 8 Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) (UNEP 2020). This vector allows you to identify which Indonesian MPAs might act as thermal refugia for coral reefs. More information can be found in De Clippele et al. (2022) Evaluating annual severe coral bleaching risk for marine protected areas across Indonesia, Marine Policy