Future Projections of Water Scarcity in the Danube River Basin Due to Land Use, Water Demand and Climate Change

This paper presents a state-of-the-art integrated model assessment to estimate the impacts of the 2°C global mean temperature increase and the 2061-2090 warming period on water scarcity in the Danube River Basin under the RCP8.5 scenario. The Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) is used to calculate changes in both spatial extent and people exposed to water scarcity due to land use, water demand, population and climate change. Despite model and data uncertainties, the combined effects of projected land use, water demand and climate change show a decrease in the number of people exposed to water scarcity during the 2°C warming period and an increase in the 2061-2090 period in the Danube River Basin. However, the projected population change results in a decrease of exposed people in both warming periods. Regions with population growth, in the northwestern part of the Danube River Basin experience low water scarcity or a decrease in water scarcity. The largest number of people vulnerable to water scarcity within the Danube River Basin are living in the Great Morava, Bulgarian Danube and Romanian Danube. There, the combined effects of land use, water demand and climate change exacerbate already existing water scarce areas during the 2°C warming period and towards the end of the century new water scarce areas are created. Although less critical during the 2°C warming period, adjacent regions such as the Tisza, Middle Danube and Siret-Prut are susceptible to experience similar exposure to water scarcity within the 2061-2090 period. Climate change is the most important driver for the increase in water scarcity in these regions, but the strengthening effect of water demand (energy sector) and dampening effect of land use change (urbanization) does play a role as well. Therefore, while preparing for times of increased pressures on the water supply it would be advisable for several economic sectors to explore and implement water efficiency measures

MSWEP : 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979-2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979-2015 with a 3hourly temporal and 0.25 degrees ffi spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of timescale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13 762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite-and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0% of the stations and a median R of 0.67 vs. 0.44-0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments (< 50 000 km(2)) across the globe. Specifically, we calibrated the simple conceptual hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning) against daily Q observations with P from each of the different datasets. For the 1058 sparsely gauged catchments, representative of 83.9% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), MSWEP obtained a median calibration NSE of 0.52 vs. 0.29-0.39 for the other P datasets. MSWEP is available via http://www.gloh2o.org

Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters

Current state-of-the-art models typically applied at continental to global scales (hereafter called macroscale) tend to use a priori parameters, resulting in suboptimal streamflow (Q) simulation. For the first time, a scheme for regionalization of model parameters at the global scale was developed. We used data from a diverse set of 1787 small-to-medium sized catchments ( 10-10,000 km(2)) and the simple conceptual HBV model to set up and test the scheme. Each catchment was calibrated against observed daily Q, after which 674 catchments with high calibration and validation scores, and thus presumably good-quality observed Q and forcing data, were selected to serve as donor catchments. The calibrated parameter sets for the donors were subsequently transferred to 0.5 degrees grid cells with similar climatic and physiographic characteristics, resulting in parameter maps for HBV with global coverage. For each grid cell, we used the 10 most similar donor catchments, rather than the single most similar donor, and averaged the resulting simulated Q, which enhanced model performance. The 1113 catchments not used as donors were used to independently evaluate the scheme. The regionalized parameters outperformed spatially uniform (i.e., averaged calibrated) parameters for 79% of the evaluation catchments. Substantial improvements were evident for all major Koppen-Geiger climate types and even for evaluation catchments>5000 km distant from the donors. The median improvement was about half of the performance increase achieved through calibration. HBV with regionalized parameters outperformed nine state-of-the-art macroscale models, suggesting these might also benefit from the new regionalization scheme. The produced HBV parameter maps including ancillary data are available via

The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods

MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979-2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of timescale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13 762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite- and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0 % of the stations and a median R of 0.67 vs. 0.44–0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments (< 50 000 km2) across the globe. Specifically, we calibrated the simple conceptual hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) against daily Q observations with P from each of the different datasets. For the 1058 sparsely gauged catchments, representative of 83.9 % of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), MSWEP obtained a median calibration NSE of 0.52 vs. 0.29–0.39 for the other P datasets. MSWEP is available via http://www.gloh2o.org

The Simulation of Two Polders for Flood Protection in the German Part of the Oder Catchment

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra