Paleomagnetic measurement of nonbrittle coseismic deformation across the San Andreas Fault at Pallett Creek

Paleomagnetic data have been obtained to address a problem at the Pallett Creek paleoseismological site: the 9 mm/yr slip rate determined from three-dimensional mapping of late Holocene offsets across discrete faults is only a quarter of the expected value. We suspected that nonbrittle deformation adjacent to the faults might account for the 26 mm/yr discrepancy. In our search for the missing slip we collected and analyzed 264 paleomagnetic samples from a 53-m-wide transect across the fault zone. Half the samples came from a unit deposited immediately after a large earthquake of about A.D. 1480; these samples were affected by two large earthquakes that involved rupture at the site in 1812 and 1857. We collected the other half of the samples from a slightly older bed, one that was deposited before the earthquake of about A.D. 1480. Relative to “control” groups composed of 10 samples and collected 50 m from the fault, samples closer to the fault display clockwise rotations of 30° or less. If interpreted as block rotations, the data from the older unit imply that it has sustained a total of 14.0 ± 2.9 m of dextral warp during the past three major earthquakes and that the younger unit has experienced a total of 8.5 ± 1.0 m of warp during the most recent two. Combining these values with the amounts of dextral slip across the mapped fault planes yields dextral offsets of 5.5, 6.25, and 6.25 m for the events of A.D. 1480, 1812, and 1857 and a slip rate of 35.6 ± 6.7 mm/yr. This slip rate, averaged over the past three complete seismic cycles, is consistent with published rates from other sites. Offsets associated with the past three events are remarkably similar. These amounts, however, appear independent of the length of interseismic cycles. These observations suggest (1) that this part of the San Andreas fault has a characteristic strength and (2) that conventional concepts of strain accumulation and relief (for example, time- and slip-predictable models of earthquake occurrence) are unrealistic

Strengthening Biblical Historicity vis-a`-vis Minimalism, 1992–2008 and Beyond. Part 2.3: Some Commonalities in Approaches to Writing Ancient Israel’s History

This series of articles covers scholarly works in English which can, at least potentially, be associated with a generally positive view of biblical historicity regarding periods preceding the Israelites’ return from exile. Part 2 covers works that treat the methodological issues at the center of the maximalist–minimalist debate. Parts 2.1 and 2.2 selectively survey the works of 24 non-minimalist scholars during two decades. In the absence of consensus, this article analyzes the works in Parts 2.1 and 2.2, tracing elements of approach that are held in common, at least among pluralities of non-minimalists (possible majorities are not noted). The first commonality of approach is that history is provisional, not final. The second is that history should become fully multidisciplinary. The third commonality is that historians should receive all historical evidence on an equal footing before examination and cross-examination. The fourth and last is that historians should become increasingly sensitive to cultural aspects and coding in ancient Near Eastern materials