Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system

Abatement options for the hard-to-electrify parts of the transport sector are needed to achieve ambitious emissions targets. Biofuels based on biomass, electrofuels based on renewable hydrogen and a carbon source, as well as fossil fuels compensated by carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are the main options. Currently, biofuels are the only renewable fuels available at scale and are stimulated by blending mandates. Here, we estimate the system cost of enforcing such mandates in addition to an overall emissions cap for all energy sectors. We model overnight scenarios for 2040 and 2060 with the sector-coupled European energy system model PyPSA-Eur-Sec, with a high temporal resolution. The following cost drivers are identified: (i) high biomass costs due to scarcity, (ii) opportunity costs for competing usages of biomass for industry heat and combined heat and power (CHP) with carbon capture, and (iii) lower scalability and generally higher cost for biofuels compared to electrofuels and fossil fuels combined with CDR. With a -80% emissions reduction target in 2040, variable renewables, partial electrification of heat, industry and transport, and biomass use for CHP and industrial heat are important for achieving the target at minimal cost, while an abatement of remaining liquid fossil fuel use increases system cost. In this case, a 50% biofuel mandate increases total energy system costs by 123–191 billion €, corresponding to 35%–62% of the liquid fuel cost without a mandate. With a negative -105% emissions target in 2060, fuel abatement options are necessary, and electrofuels or the use of CDR to offset fossil fuel emissions are both more competitive than biofuels. In this case, a 50% biofuel mandate increases total costs by 21–33 billion €, or 11%–15% of the liquid fuel cost without a mandate. Biomass is preferred in CHP and industry heat, combined with carbon capture to serve negative emissions or electrofuel production, thereby utilising biogenic carbon several times. Sensitivity analyses reveal significant uncertainties but consistently support that higher biofuel mandates lead to higher costs

Are Patient Self-Reported Outcome Measures Sensitive Enough to Be Used as End Points in Clinical Trials?: Evidence from the United Kingdom Glaucoma Treatment Study

Purpose The United Kingdom Glaucoma Treatment Study (UKGTS) demonstrated the effectiveness of an intraocular pressure-lowering drug in patients with glaucoma using visual field progression as a primary outcome. The present study tested the hypothesis that responses on patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs; secondary outcome measure) differ between patients receiving a topical prostaglandin analog (latanoprost) or placebo eye drops in UKGTS. Design Multicenter, randomized, triple-masked, placebo-controlled trial. Participants Newly diagnosed glaucoma patients in the UKGTS with baseline and exit PROMs (n = 182 and n = 168 patients from the treatment and placebo groups, respectively). Methods In the UKGTS (trial registration number, ISRCTN96423140), patients with open-angle glaucoma were allocated to receive latanoprost (treatment) or placebo; the observation period was 24 months. Patients completed general health PROMs (European Quality of Life in 5 Dimensions [EQ-5D] and 36-item Short Form [SF-36]) and PROMs specific to glaucoma (15-item Glaucoma Quality of Life [GQL-15] and 9-item Glaucoma Activity Limitation [GAL-9]) at baseline and exit from the trial. Percentage changes between measurement on PROMs were calculated for each patient and compared between treatment arms. In addition, differences between stable patients (n = 272) and those with glaucomatous progression (n = 78), as determined by visual field change (primary outcome), were assessed. Main Outcome Measure PROMs on health-related and vision-related quality of life. Results Average percentage change on PROMs was similar for patients in both arms of the trial, with no statistically significant differences between treatment and placebo groups (EQ-5D, P = 0.98; EQ-5D visual analog scale, P = 0.88; SF-36, P = 0.94, GQL-15, P = 0.66; GAL-9, P = 0.87). There were statistically significant differences between stable and progressing patients on glaucoma-specific PROMs (GQL-15, P = 0.02; GAL-9, P = 0.02), but not on general health PROMs (EQ-5D, P = 0.62; EQ-5D visual analog scale, P = 0.23; SF-36, P = 0.65). Conclusions Average change in PROMs on health-related and vision-related quality of life was similar for the treatment and placebo groups in the UKGTS. The PROMs used may not be sensitive enough to function as primary end points in clinical trials when participants have newly diagnosed early-stage glaucoma

Franchising as a Strategy for Combining Small and Large Group Advantages (Logics) in Social Entrepreneurship:A Hayekian Perspective

This article develops a Hayekian perspective on social franchising that distinguishes between the end-connected logic of the small group and the rule-connected logic of the big group. Our key claim is that mission-driven social entrepreneurs often draw on the small-group logic when starting their social ventures and then face difficulties when the process of scaling shifts their operations toward a big-group logic. In this situation, social franchising offers a strategy to replicate the small group despite systemwide scaling, to mobilize decentrally accessible social capital, and to reduce agency costs through mechanisms of self-selection and self-monitoring. By employing a Hayekian perspective, we are thus able to offer an explanation as to why social franchising is a suitable scaling strategy for some social entrepreneurship organizations and not for others. We illustrate our work using the Ashoka Fellow Wellcome

Latanoprost for open-angle glaucoma (UKGTS): a randomised, multicentre, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Treatments for open-angle glaucoma aim to prevent vision loss through lowering of intraocular pressure, but to our knowledge no placebo-controlled trials have assessed visual function preservation, and the observation periods of previous (unmasked) trials have typically been at least 5 years. We assessed vision preservation in patients given latanoprost compared with those given placebo. Methods: In this randomised, triple-masked, placebo-controlled trial, we enrolled patients with newly diagnosed open-angle glaucoma at ten UK centres (tertiary referral centres, teaching hospitals, and district general hospitals). Eligible patients were randomly allocated (1:1) with a website-generated randomisation schedule, stratified by centre and with a permuted block design, to receive either latanoprost 0·005% (intervention group) or placebo (control group) eye drops. Drops were administered from identical bottles, once a day, to both eyes. The primary outcome was time to visual field deterioration within 24 months. Analyses were done in all individuals with follow-up data. The Data and Safety Monitoring Committee (DSMC) recommended stopping the trial on Jan 6, 2011 (last patient visit July, 2011), after an interim analysis, and suggested a change in primary outcome from the difference in proportions of patients with incident progression between groups to time to visual field deterioration within 24 months. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN96423140. Findings: We enrolled 516 individuals between Dec 1, 2006, and March 16, 2010. Baseline mean intraocular pressure was 19·6 mm Hg (SD 4·6) in 258 patients in the latanoprost group and 20·1 mm Hg (4·8) in 258 controls. At 24 months, mean reduction in intraocular pressure was 3·8 mm Hg (4·0) in 231 patients assessed in the latanoprost group and 0·9 mm Hg (3·8) in 230 patients assessed in the placebo group. Visual field preservation was significantly longer in the latanoprost group than in the placebo group: adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0·44 (95% CI 0·28–0·69; p=0·0003). We noted 18 serious adverse events, none attributable to the study drug. Interpretation: This is the first randomised placebo-controlled trial to show preservation of the visual field with an intraocular-pressure-lowering drug in patients with open-angle glaucoma. The study design enabled significant differences in vision to be assessed in a relatively short observation period

Patterns, predictors and prognostic relevance of high-grade hematotoxicity after temozolomide or temozolomide-lomustine in the CeTeG/NOA-09 trial

PURPOSE: In the randomized phase III trial CeTeG/NOA-09, temozolomide (TMZ)/lomustine (CCNU) combination therapy was superior to TMZ in newly diagnosed MGMT methylated glioblastoma, albeit reporting more frequent hematotoxicity. Here, we analyze high grade hematotoxicity and its prognostic relevance in the trial population. METHODS: Descriptive and comparative analysis of hematotoxicity adverse events ≥ grade 3 (HAE) according to the Common Terminology of Clinical Adverse Events, version 4.0 was performed. The association of HAE with survival was assessed in a landmark analysis. Logistic regression analysis was performed to predict HAE during the concomitant phase of chemotherapy. RESULTS: HAE occurred in 36.4% and 28.6% of patients under CCNU/TMZ and TMZ treatment, respectively. The median onset of the first HAE was during concomitant chemotherapy (i.e. first CCNU/TMZ course or daily TMZ therapy), and 42.9% of patients with HAE receiving further courses experienced repeat HAE. Median HAE duration was similar between treatment arms (CCNU/TMZ 11.5; TMZ 13 days). Chemotherapy was more often discontinued due to HAE in CCNU/TMZ than in TMZ (19.7 vs. 6.3%, p = 0.036). The occurrence of HAE was not associated with survival differences (p = 0.76). Regression analysis confirmed older age (OR 1.08) and female sex (OR 2.47), but not treatment arm, as predictors of HAE. CONCLUSION: Older age and female sex are associated with higher incidence of HAE. Although occurrence of HAE was not associated with shorter survival, reliable prediction of patients at risk might be beneficial to allow optimal management of therapy and allocation of supportive measures. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01149109

Harnessing Wicked Problems in Multi-stakeholder Partnerships

Despite the burgeoning literature on the governance and impact of cross-sector partnerships in the past two decades, the debate on how and when these collaborative arrangements address globally relevant problems and contribute to systemic change remains open. Building upon the notion of wicked problems and the literature on governing such wicked problems, this paper defines harnessing problems in multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs) as the approach of taking into account the nature of the problem and of organizing governance processes accordingly. The paper develops an innovative analytical framework that conceptualizes MSPs in terms of three governance processes (deliberation, decision-making and enforce-ment) harnessing three key dimensions of wicked problems (knowledge uncertainty, value conflict and dynamic complexity). The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil provides an illustrative case study on how this analytical framework describes and explains organizational change in partnerships from a problem-based perspective. The framework can be used to better understand and predict the complex relationships between MSP governance processes, systemic change and societal problems, but also as a guiding tool in (re-)organizing governance processes to continuously re-assess the problems over time and address them accordingly

Seismic time reversal experiment in the Low Noise Underground Laboratory, LSBB (France)

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