Estimating above-ground biomass of trees: comparing Bayesian calibration with regression technique

The commitment to report greenhouse gas emissions requires an estimation of biomass stocks and their changes in forests. When this was first done, representative biomass functions for most common tree species were very often not available. In Germany, an estimation method based on solid volume was developed (expansion procedure). It is easy to apply because the required information is available for nearly all relevant tree species. However, the distributions of neither parameters nor prediction intervals are available. In this study, two different methods to estimate above-ground biomass for Norway spruce (Picea abies), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) are compared. First, an approach based on information from the literature was used to predict above-ground biomass. It is basically the same method used in greenhouse gas reporting in Germany and was applied with prior and posterior parameters. Second, equations for direct estimation of biomass with standard regression techniques were developed. A sample of above-ground biomass of trees was measured in campaigns conducted previously to the third National Forest Inventory in Germany (2012). The data permitted the application of Bayesian calibration (BC) to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters for the expansion procedure. Moreover, BC enables the calculation of prediction intervals which are necessary for error estimations required for reporting. The two methods are compared with regard to predictive accuracy via cross-validation, under varying sample sizes. Our findings show that BC of the expansion procedure performs better, especially when sample size is small. We therefore encourage the use of existing knowledge together with small samples of observed biomass (e.g., for rare tree species) to gain predictive accuracy in biomass estimation

Sensitivity of ecosystem goods and services projections of a forest landscape model to initialization data

Projections of indicators of forest ecosystem goods and services (EGS) based on process-based landscape models are critical for adapting forest management to climate change. However, the scarcity of fine-grained, spatially explicit forest data means that initializing these models is both a challenge and a source of uncertainty. To test how different initialization approaches influence the simulation of forest dynamics and EGS indicators we initialized the forest landscape model LandClim with fine resolution empirical data, coarse empirical data, and simulation-derived data, and evaluated the results at three spatial scales (stand, management area and landscape). Simulations were performed for a spruce (Picea abies) dominated landscape in the Black Forest, Germany, under current climate and a climate change scenario. We found that long-term (>150years) projections are robust to initialization uncertainty. In contrast, shorter-term projections are sensitive to initialization uncertainty, with sensitivity increasing when EGS are assessed at smaller spatial scales, and when the EGS indicators depend on the spatial distribution of individual species. EGS dynamics are strongly influenced by interactions between the density, species composition, and age structure of initialized forests and simulated forest management. If EGS dynamics are strongly influenced by climate change, such as when climate change induces mortality in drought-sensitive species, some of the initialization uncertainty can be masked. We advocate for initializing landscape models with fine-grained data in applications that focus on spatial management problems in heterogeneous landscapes, and stress that the scale of analysis must be in accordance with the accuracy that is warranted by the initialization dat

Plot size matters: Toward comparable species richness estimates across plot-based inventories

To understand the state and trends in biodiversity beyond the scope of monitoring programs, biodiversity indicators must be comparable across inventories. Species richness (SR) is one of the most widely used biodiversity indicators. However, as SR increases with the size of the area sampled, inventories using different plot sizes are hardly comparable. This study aims at producing a methodological framework that enables SR comparisons across plot-based inventories with differing plot sizes. We used National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from Norway, Slovakia, Spain, and Switzerland to build sample-based rarefaction curves by randomly incrementally aggregating plots, representing the relationship between SR and sampled area. As aggregated plots can be far apart and subject to different environmental conditions, we estimated the amount of environmental heterogeneity (EH) introduced in the aggregation process. By correcting for this EH, we produced adjusted rarefaction curves mimicking the sampling of environmentally homogeneous forest stands, thus reducing the effect of plot size and enabling reliable SR comparisons between inventories. Models were built using the Conway–Maxell–Poisson distribution to account for the underdispersed SR data. Our method successfully corrected for the EH introduced during the aggregation process in all countries, with better performances in Norway and Switzerland. We further found that SR comparisons across countries based on the country-specific NFI plot sizes are misleading, and that our approach offers an opportunity to harmonize pan-European SR monitoring. Our method provides reliable and comparable SR estimates for inventories that use different plot sizes. Our approach can be applied to any plot-based inventory and count data other than SR, thus allowing a more comprehensive assessment of biodiversity across various scales and ecosystems.publishedVersio

A manual and an automatic TERS based virus discrimination

Rapid techniques for virus identification are more relevant today than ever. Conventional virus detection and identification strategies generally rest upon various microbiological methods and genomic approaches, which are not suited for the analysis of single virus particles. In contrast, the highly sensitive spectroscopic technique tip-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (TERS) allows the characterisation of biological nano-structures like virions on a single-particle level. In this study, the feasibility of TERS in combination with chemometrics to discriminate two pathogenic viruses, Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) and Porcine teschovirus (PTV), was investigated. In a first step, chemometric methods transformed the spectral data in such a way that a rapid visual discrimination of the two examined viruses was enabled. In a further step, these methods were utilised to perform an automatic quality rating of the measured spectra. Spectra that passed this test were eventually used to calculate a classification model, through which a successful discrimination of the two viral species based on TERS spectra of single virus particles was also realised with a classification accuracy of 91%

Laser spectroscopic technique for direct identification of a single virus I: FASTER CARS

From the famous 1918 H1N1 influenza to the present COVID-19 pandemic, the need for improved viral detection techniques is all too apparent. The aim of the present paper is to show that identification of individual virus particles in clinical sample materials quickly and reliably is near at hand. First of all, our team has developed techniques for identification of virions based on a modular atomic force microscopy (AFM). Furthermore, femtosecond adaptive spectroscopic techniques with enhanced resolution via coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (FASTER CARS) using tip-enhanced techniques markedly improves the sensitivity [M. O. Scully, et al, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, 10994-11001 (2002)]

Laser Spectroscopic Technique for Direct Identification of a Single Virus I: FASTER CARS

From the famous 1918 H1N1 influenza to the present COVID-19 pandemic, the need for improved virial detection techniques is all too apparent. The aim of the present paper is to show that identification of individual virus particles in clinical sample materials quickly and reliably is near at hand. First of all, our team has developed techniques for identification of virions based on a modular atomic force microscopy (AFM). Furthermore, Femtosecond Adaptive Spectroscopic Techniques with Enhanced Resolution via Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Scattering (FASTER CARS) [1] using tip-enhanced techniques markedly improves the sensitivity.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

TOWARD GLOBAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING CAPABILITY: Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

The need for a global drought early warning framework. Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%–13% over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict

Preliminary results of lifetime measurements in neutron-rich 53Ti

To study the nuclear structure of neutron-rich titanium isotopes, a lifetime measurement was performed at the Grand Accélérateur National d'Ions Lourds (GANIL) facility in Caen, France. The nucleiwere produced in a multinucleon-transfer reaction by using a 6.76 MeV/u 238U beam. The Advanced Gamma Tracking Array (AGATA) was employed for the γ-ray detection and target-like recoils were identified event-by-event by the large-acceptance variable mode spectrometer (VAMOS++). Preliminary level lifetimes of the (5/2−) to 13/2− states of the yrast band in the neutron-rich nucleus 53Ti were measured for the first time employing the recoil distance Doppler-shift (RDDS) method and the compact plunger for deep inelastic reactions. The differential decay curve method (DDCM) was used to obtain the lifetimes from the RDDS data