Improving scenario methods in infrastructure planning: a case study of long distance travel and mobility in the uk under extreme weather uncertainty and a changing climate

This paper develops a mixed method approach to infrastructure planning through a United Kingdom (UK) case study examining the impact of a changing climate on long distance travel and mobility between London and Glasgow. A novel combination of a qualitative method - Systematic Qualitative Foresight (SQF) - and quantitative simulation using discrete choice stated preference methods is applied. The main dataset is a travel behaviour survey of over 2,000 residents of London and Glasgow. Three illustrative SQF-based scenarios are developed incorporating society, technology and climate dimensions. For each scenario, the choice of long-distance travel mode by two groups of respondents generated by cluster analysis is simulated using stated preference survey data to describe the choices likely to be made by actors within each scenario. We demonstrate the importance of considering a wide range of variables when creating instruments for infrastructure planning decisions. Our results show that weather-related disruption has consequences for travel behaviour, with a considerable number of travellers deciding not to travel despite the importance of their trip. However, the vast majority of travellers would still travel. This should be considered by policy makers, and those responsible for transport infrastructure, in order to increase its resilience to extreme weather and demand, and better devise contingencies plans to contain, and minimise, the effect of the disruptions on the users. The method described has wider implications for infrastructure planning, particularly in its ability to engage a broader range of stakeholders and to avoid linear models of prediction. By emphasising the creation of a plausible decision space, it offers the possibility of increased robustness and resilience in infrastructure planning

Time-resolved studies define the nature of toxic IAPP intermediates, providing insight for anti-amyloidosis therapeutics

Islet amyloidosis by IAPP contributes to pancreatic β-cell death in diabetes, but the nature of toxic IAPP species remains elusive. Using concurrent time-resolved biophysical and biological measurements, we define the toxic species produced during IAPP amyloid formation and link their properties to induction of rat INS-1 β-cell and murine islet toxicity. These globally flexible, low order oligomers upregulate pro-inflammatory markers and induce reactive oxygen species. They do not bind 1-anilnonaphthalene-8-sulphonic acid and lack extensive β-sheet structure. Aromatic interactions modulate, but are not required for toxicity. Not all IAPP oligomers are toxic; toxicity depends on their partially structured conformational states. Some anti-amyloid agents paradoxically prolong cytotoxicity by prolonging the lifetime of the toxic species. The data highlight the distinguishing properties of toxic IAPP oligomers and the common features that they share with toxic species reported for other amyloidogenic polypeptides, providing information for rational drug design to treat IAPP induced β-cell death

Loss-of-function mutations in the X-linked biglycan gene cause a severe syndromic form of thoracic aortic aneurysms and dissections.

Thoracic aortic aneurysm and dissection (TAAD) is typically inherited in an autosomal dominant manner, but rare X-linked families have been described. So far, the only known X-linked gene is FLNA, which is associated with the periventricular nodular heterotopia type of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. However, mutations in this gene explain only a small number of X-linked TAAD families. We performed targeted resequencing of 368 candidate genes in a cohort of 11 molecularly unexplained Marfan probands. Subsequently, Sanger sequencing of BGN in 360 male and 155 female molecularly unexplained TAAD probands was performed. We found five individuals with loss-of-function mutations in BGN encoding the small leucine-rich proteoglycan biglycan. The clinical phenotype is characterized by early-onset aortic aneurysm and dissection. Other recurrent findings include hypertelorism, pectus deformity, joint hypermobility, contractures, and mild skeletal dysplasia. Fluorescent staining revealed an increase in TGF-β signaling, evidenced by an increase in nuclear pSMAD2 in the aortic wall. Our results are in line with those of prior reports demonstrating that Bgn-deficient male BALB/cA mice die from aortic rupture. In conclusion, BGN gene defects in humans cause an X-linked syndromic form of severe TAAD that is associated with preservation of elastic fibers and increased TGF-β signaling.Genet Med 19 4, 386-395

Intraperitoneal drain placement and outcomes after elective colorectal surgery: international matched, prospective, cohort study

Despite current guidelines, intraperitoneal drain placement after elective colorectal surgery remains widespread. Drains were not associated with earlier detection of intraperitoneal collections, but were associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased risk of surgical-site infections.Background Many surgeons routinely place intraperitoneal drains after elective colorectal surgery. However, enhanced recovery after surgery guidelines recommend against their routine use owing to a lack of clear clinical benefit. This study aimed to describe international variation in intraperitoneal drain placement and the safety of this practice. Methods COMPASS (COMPlicAted intra-abdominal collectionS after colorectal Surgery) was a prospective, international, cohort study which enrolled consecutive adults undergoing elective colorectal surgery (February to March 2020). The primary outcome was the rate of intraperitoneal drain placement. Secondary outcomes included: rate and time to diagnosis of postoperative intraperitoneal collections; rate of surgical site infections (SSIs); time to discharge; and 30-day major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade at least III). After propensity score matching, multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to estimate the independent association of the secondary outcomes with drain placement. Results Overall, 1805 patients from 22 countries were included (798 women, 44.2 per cent; median age 67.0 years). The drain insertion rate was 51.9 per cent (937 patients). After matching, drains were not associated with reduced rates (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, 95 per cent c.i. 0.79 to 2.23; P = 0.287) or earlier detection (hazard ratio (HR) 0.87, 0.33 to 2.31; P = 0.780) of collections. Although not associated with worse major postoperative complications (OR 1.09, 0.68 to 1.75; P = 0.709), drains were associated with delayed hospital discharge (HR 0.58, 0.52 to 0.66; P < 0.001) and an increased risk of SSIs (OR 2.47, 1.50 to 4.05; P < 0.001). Conclusion Intraperitoneal drain placement after elective colorectal surgery is not associated with earlier detection of postoperative collections, but prolongs hospital stay and increases SSI risk

Emissions of CO2 from road freight transport in London: Trends and policies for long run reductions

Freight transport has been receiving increasing attention in both literature and practice following the growing recognition of its importance in urban transport planning. This paper analyses historical and projected road freight CO2 emissions in the city of London and explores the potential mitigation effect of a set of freight transport policies and logistics solutions. Findings indicate a range of policies with potential to reduce emissions in the period up to 2050. However, this reduction would appear to only be capable of partly counterbalancing the projected increase in freight traffic. More profound behavioural measures therefore appear to be necessary for London's CO2 emissions reduction targets to be met. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

An economic perspective: The cost-effectiveness of carbon reduction measures in transport

Purpose To examine the cost-effectiveness of UK government policy with respect to the mitigation of carbon emissions from the transport sector. Methodology/approach Existing policy as set out by the Department for Transport in Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future is examined. This document elaborates a Low Carbon Transport Strategy intended to achieve annual emissions savings of 17.7 MtCO2 by 2020. A wide range of policy areas where further action could be taken to reduce carbon emissions are examined and their cost-effectiveness considered. Findings Measures that influence behaviour including smarter choices, eco-driving across modes, freight best practice and modest price increases are highly cost-effective. More cost-effective routes to saving 17.7 MtCO2 are identified, as are further cost-effective savings. Originality/value It appears that government targets could be delivered and indeed exceeded at lower cost than the Low Carbon Transport Strategy. However, policy development is influenced by a wide range of factors which help to explain why cost-effective measures are not always fully exploited.</p

The potential behavioural effect of personal carbon trading: results from an experimental survey

This paper contributes to the debate on the effectiveness of carbon trading schemes when contrasted with carbon taxes in reducing environmental externalities. An experimental survey explored individual's behavioural response to a personal carbon trading (PCT) scheme or a carbon tax (CT), both affecting personal transport and domestic energy choices. Responses were two-staged: first, whether to change behaviour or not, and second, how much to change. Results from the first stage indicate that those on high incomes and car users were less likely to change their behaviour, while those who had already changed their behaviour due to concern about climate change, lived in larger households or faced the CT were more likely to change. The second stage revealed fewer significant effects, the impact of already changing behaviour persisted and, in this case, those who faced PCT were likely to make greater changes. Both schemes appear to be capable of reducing individual carbon consumption; however, the evidence on the effectiveness of a PCT relative to a simpler CT is mixed and insufficient to make a strong case for such a complex scheme over a more straightforward tax

A study of relationships between quality of life and road traffic noise value in Kunming city, China

This paper reports findings from a study that explored the relationships between the quality of life and road traffic noise in Kunming city, Yunnan Province of China. There were three main objectives: to explore residents' views of quality of life in Kunming city; to identify the perceived impacts of road traffic noise on local residents; and to identify the monetary cost of noise. The results indicate that of seventeen quality of life indicators explored road traffic noise is the greatest source of dissatisfaction. Findings from stated preference experiments suggest that respondents are willing to pay to reduce noise levels and that a quiet environment may be valued more highly than cleaner air, reduced accident rates or improved orderliness