Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

La formulation optimisée en omega-3 EPA/DHA 6/1 prévient l'hypertension et la dysfonction endothéliale induites par l'angiotensine-II chez le rat

La présente étude évalue la capacité de EPA:DHA 6:1, une formulation d’omega-3 capable d’induire la formation continue de monoxyde d’azote par la NO synthase endothéliale, à prévenir l’hypertension et la dysfonction endothéliale induites par l’angiotensine II (Ang II) chez le rat. L’hypertension induite par l’Ang II est associée à une dysfonction endothéliale caractérisée par une altération des composantes de la relaxation et une augmentation des réponses contractiles dépendantes de l’endothélium. L’Ang II augmente le stress oxydant vasculaire et l’expression de NADPH oxydase, COXs, eNOS, et AT1R, alors que SKCa et connexin 37 sont sous-exprimés. EPA:DHA 6:1 prévient l’hypertension, la dysfonction endothéliale et la surexpression des protéines cibles. En conclusion, la consommation chronique de EPA:DHA 6:1 prévient l’hypertension et la dysfonction endothéliale induites par l’Ang II chez le rat, probablement en prévenant le stress oxydant dû à la NADPH oxydase et aux cyclooxygénases.EPA:DHA 6:1 has been shown to be a superior omega-3 formulation inducing a sustained endothelial NO synthase-derived formation of nitric oxide. This study examined whether chronic intake of EPA:DHA 6:1 prevents hypertension and endothelial dysfunction induced by angiotensin II (Ang II) in rats. Ang II-induced hypertension was associated with endothelial dysfunction characterized by blunted components of relaxation and increased endothelium-dependent contractile responses. Ang II increased the vascular oxidative stress, and the expression of NADPH oxidase subunits, COXs, eNOS, and AT1R whereas SKCa and connexin 37 were down-regulated. Intake of EPA:DHA 6:1 prevented the Ang II-induced hypertension and endothelial dysfunction, and improved expression of target proteins. In conclusion, chronic intake of EPA:DHA 6:1 prevented the Ang II induced hypertension and endothelial dysfunction in rats, most likely by preventing NADPH oxidase and cyclooxygenase-derived oxidative stress

Polymeric Microparticles: Synthesis, Characterization and In Vitro Evaluation for Pulmonary Delivery of Rifampicin

Rifampicin, a potent broad-spectrum antibiotic, remains the backbone of anti-tubercular therapy. However, it can cause severe hepatotoxicity when given orally. To overcome the limitations of the current oral therapy, this study designed inhalable spray-dried, rifampicin-loaded microparticles using aloe vera powder as an immune modulator, with varying concentrations of alginate and L-leucine. The microparticles were assessed for their physicochemical properties, in vitro drug release and aerodynamic behavior. The spray-dried powders were 2 to 4 µm in size with a percentage yield of 45 to 65%. The particles were nearly spherical with the tendency of agglomeration as depicted from Carr’s index (37 to 65) and Hausner’s ratios (>1.50). The drug content ranged from 0.24 to 0.39 mg/mg, with an association efficiency of 39.28 to 96.15%. The dissolution data depicts that the in vitro release of rifampicin from microparticles was significantly retarded with a higher L-leucine concentration in comparison to those formulations containing a higher sodium alginate concentration due to its hydrophobic nature. The aerodynamic data depicts that 60 to 70% of the aerosol mass was emitted from an inhaler with MMAD values of 1.44 to 1.60 µm and FPF of 43.22 to 55.70%. The higher FPF values with retarded in vitro release could allow sufficient time for the phagocytosis of synthesized microparticles by alveolar macrophages, thereby leading to the eradication of M. tuberculosis from these cells

Computational analysis and in vitro investigation on citrus flavonoids for inflammatory, diabetic and AGEs targets

Flavonoids are a diverse class of polyphenolic substances largely found in plants including citrus peels and are reported to posess a variety of biological activities. We investigated important flavonoids apigenin, hesperidin, narigin, quercetin and tangeritine against diabetes and associated conditions. In current project drug likeness, ADMET analysis, molecular docking and in vitro assays were performed. The apigenin, quercetin and tanagretin exhibited compliance with Lipinski’s rule of five. The molecular docking analysis showed best fit in transcriptional regulator 3TOP and 1IK3 in all tested compounds. During antioxidant assays, all flavonoids presented excellent activities. In the α-glucosidase assay, quercetin showed highest inhibition (76% at final concentration of 52 µg/ml) followed by tangeritin (73% at final concentration of 52 µg/ml). In case of 15-Lox assay, highest inhibition was seen in case of quercetin (75%) followed by apigenin (53%). In the AGEs assay, the quercetin showed 47% inhbition of protein cross link formation preceeded by the tenegretin exhited 37% inhibition. It was therefore concluded that tested flavonoids have significant activities in both in silico and in vitro models that is mainly due to differences in structural features and polar surface area

Tacrolimus-Loaded Solid Lipid Nanoparticle Gel: Formulation Development and In Vitro Assessment for Topical Applications

The currently available topical formulations of tacrolimus have minimal and variable absorption, elevated mean disposition half-life, and skin irritation effects resulting in patient noncompliance. In our study, we fabricated tacrolimus-loaded solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) that were converted into a gel for improved topical applications. The SLNs were prepared using a solvent evaporation method and characterized for their physicochemical properties. The particle size of the SLNs was in the range of 439 nm to 669 nm with a PDI of ≤0.4, indicating a monodispersed system. The Zeta potential of uncoated SLNs (F1–F5) ranged from −25.80 to −15.40 mV. Those values reverted to positive values for chitosan-decorated formulation (F6). The drug content and entrapment efficiency ranged between 0.86 ± 0.03 and 0.91 ± 0.03 mg/mL and 68.95 ± 0.03 and 83.68 ± 0.04%, respectively. The pH values of 5.45 to 5.53 depict their compatibility for skin application. The surface tension of the SLNs decreased with increasing surfactant concentration that could increase the adherence of the SLNs to the skin. The release of drug from gel formulations was significantly retarded in comparison to their corresponding SLN counterparts (p ≤ 0.05). Both SLNs and their corresponding gel achieved the same level of drug permeation, but the retention of the drug was significantly improved with the conversion of SLNs into their corresponding gel formulation (p ≤ 0.05) due to its higher bioadhesive properties

Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary Background Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development

Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary Background The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities