A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred

Species composition, plant cover and diversity of recently reforested wild lands near Dabao Highway in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region of Yunnan Province, China

Deforestation, over-cultivation and rural growth have severely damaged native vegetation of woodlands along roadsides in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region of Yunnan Province. This study wasconducted to evaluate the effect of different reforestation practices, which consisted of natural restoration or planting with tree seedlings that varied in species composition, coverage and diversity,on damaged roadside woodlands. Three randomly selected 10 m x 10 m plots in each reforestation practice were investigated. The results showed that the species composition, plant cover and speciesdiversity of the planted communities varied with reforestation strategies and time since planting. A higher number of species, proportion of native species and woody plants, canopy cover and speciesdiversity were found in naturally restored plots and in 3 - 4 year old plots that were planted with native plants. In the early stages of reforestation, herbs dominated the plant community in most plots, andwoody plants became more important with time after reforestation. Preliminary results suggest that plant height can be used an auxiliary indicator of plant cover to assess ecosystem function status ofthe restoration project. Also, evenness may be easier to restore than species richness. Natural restoration or reforestation with native dominant plants is a good management strategy for vegetationrestoration or improvement

Complex network analysis of wind tunnel experiments on the passive scalar dispersion in a turbulent boundary layer

In this work, data of passive scalar plumes in a turbulent boundary layer are investigated. The experiments are performed in a&nbsp;wind tunnel where a passive scalar is injected through an L-shaped tube. Two source configurations&nbsp;are analysed for two different tube diameters. The passive scalar concentration is then measured at different distances from the source and wall-normal locations. By exploiting the recent advances of complex networks theory, the concentration time-series are mapped into networks, through the visibility algorithm. The resulting networks inherit the temporal features of the mapped time-series, revealing non-trivial information about the underlying transport process. This work represents an example of the great potentialities of the complex network approach for the analysis of turbulent transport and mixing.</p

Fractal analyses reveal independent complexity and predictability of gait

Locomotion is a natural task that has been assessed for decades and used as a proxy to highlight impairments of various origins. So far, most studies adopted classical linear analyses of spatio-temporal gait parameters. Here, we use more advanced, yet not less practical, non-linear techniques to analyse gait time series of healthy subjects. We aimed at finding more sensitive indexes related to spatio-temporal gait parameters than those previously used, with the hope to better identify abnormal locomotion. We analysed large-scale stride interval time series and mean step width in 34 participants while altering walking direction (forward vs. backward walking) and with or without galvanic vestibular stimulation. The Hurst exponent α and the Minkowski fractal dimension D were computed and interpreted as indexes expressing predictability and complexity of stride interval time series, respectively. These holistic indexes can easily be interpreted in the framework of optimal movement complexity. We show that α and D accurately capture stride interval changes in function of the experimental condition. Walking forward exhibited maximal complexity (D) and hence, adaptability. In contrast, walking backward and/or stimulation of the vestibular system decreased D. Furthermore, walking backward increased predictability (α) through a more stereotyped pattern of the stride interval and galvanic vestibular stimulation reduced predictability. The present study demonstrates the complementary power of the Hurst exponent and the fractal dimension to improve walking classification. Our developments may have immediate applications in rehabilitation, diagnosis, and classification procedures

Dissecting Genetic Networks Underlying Complex Phenotypes: The Theoretical Framework

Great progress has been made in genetic dissection of quantitative trait variation during the past two decades, but many studies still reveal only a small fraction of quantitative trait loci (QTLs), and epistasis remains elusive. We integrate contemporary knowledge of signal transduction pathways with principles of quantitative and population genetics to characterize genetic networks underlying complex traits, using a model founded upon one-way functional dependency of downstream genes on upstream regulators (the principle of hierarchy) and mutual functional dependency among related genes (functional genetic units, FGU). Both simulated and real data suggest that complementary epistasis contributes greatly to quantitative trait variation, and obscures the phenotypic effects of many ‘downstream’ loci in pathways. The mathematical relationships between the main effects and epistatic effects of genes acting at different levels of signaling pathways were established using the quantitative and population genetic parameters. Both loss of function and “co-adapted” gene complexes formed by multiple alleles with differentiated functions (effects) are predicted to be frequent types of allelic diversity at loci that contribute to the genetic variation of complex traits in populations. Downstream FGUs appear to be more vulnerable to loss of function than their upstream regulators, but this vulnerability is apparently compensated by different FGUs of similar functions. Other predictions from the model may account for puzzling results regarding responses to selection, genotype by environment interaction, and the genetic basis of heterosis

The Effects of Puerarin on Rat Ventricular Myocytes and the Potential Mechanism

Puerarin, a known isoflavone, is commonly found as a Chinese herb medicine. It is widely used in China to treat cardiac diseases such as angina, cardiac infarction and arrhythmia. However, its cardioprotective mechanism remains unclear. In this study, puerarin significantly prolonged ventricular action potential duration (APD) with a dosage dependent manner in the micromolar range on isolated rat ventricular myocytes. However, submicromolar puerarin had no effect on resting membrane potential (RMP), action potential amplitude (APA) and maximal velocity of depolarization (Vmax) of action potential. Only above the concentration of 10 mM, puerarin exhibited more aggressive effect on action potential, and shifted RMP to the positive direction. Millimolar concentrations of puerarin significantly inhibited inward rectified K+ channels in a dosage dependent manner, and exhibited bigger effects upon Kir2.1 vs Kir2.3 in transfected HEK293 cells. As low as micromolar range concentrations of puerarin significantly inhibited Kv7.1 and IKs. These inhibitory effects may due to the direct inhibition of puerarin upon channels not via the PKA-dependent pathway. These results provided direct preclinical evidence that puerarin prolonged APD via its inhibitory effect upon Kv7.1 and IKs, contributing to a better understanding the mechanism of puerarin cardioprotection in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases

Disparities and risks of sexually transmissible infections among men who have sex with men in China: a meta-analysis and data synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Hepatitis B and C virus, are emerging public health risks in China, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to assess the magnitude and risks of STIs among Chinese MSM. METHODS: Chinese and English peer-reviewed articles were searched in five electronic databases from January 2000 to February 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates for each STI infection were calculated using meta-analysis. Infection risks of STIs in MSM, HIV-positive MSM and male sex workers (MSW) were obtained. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO. RESULTS: Eighty-eight articles (11 in English and 77 in Chinese) investigating 35,203 MSM in 28 provinces were included in this review. The prevalence levels of STIs among MSM were 6.3% (95% CI: 3.5-11.0%) for chlamydia, 1.5% (0.7-2.9%) for genital wart, 1.9% (1.3-2.7%) for gonorrhoea, 8.9% (7.8-10.2%) for hepatitis B (HBV), 1.2% (1.0-1.6%) for hepatitis C (HCV), 66.3% (57.4-74.1%) for human papillomavirus (HPV), 10.6% (6.2-17.6%) for herpes simplex virus (HSV-2) and 4.3% (3.2-5.8%) for Ureaplasma urealyticum. HIV-positive MSM have consistently higher odds of all these infections than the broader MSM population. As a subgroup of MSM, MSW were 2.5 (1.4-4.7), 5.7 (2.7-12.3), and 2.2 (1.4-3.7) times more likely to be infected with chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HCV than the broader MSM population, respectively. CONCLUSION: Prevalence levels of STIs among MSW were significantly higher than the broader MSM population. Co-infection of HIV and STIs were prevalent among Chinese MSM. Integration of HIV and STIs healthcare and surveillance systems is essential in providing effective HIV/STIs preventive measures and treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO NO: CRD42013003721

Structure and Photoluminescent Properties of ZnO Encapsulated in Mesoporous Silica SBA-15 Fabricated by Two-Solvent Strategy

The two-solvent method was employed to prepare ZnO encapsulated in mesoporous silica (ZnO/SBA-15). The prepared ZnO/SBA-15 samples have been studied by X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscope, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, nitrogen adsorption–desorption isotherm, and photoluminescence spectroscopy. The ZnO/SBA-15 nanocomposite has the ordered hexagonal mesostructure of SBA-15. ZnO clusters of a high loading are distributed in the channels of SBA-15. Photoluminescence spectra show the UV emission band around 368 nm, the violet emission around 420 nm, and the blue emission around 457 nm. The UV emission is attributed to band-edge emission of ZnO. The violet emission results from the oxygen vacancies on the ZnO–SiO2interface traps. The blue emission is from the oxygen vacancies or interstitial zinc ions of ZnO. The UV emission and blue emission show a blue-shift phenomenon due to quantum-confinement-induced energy gap enhancement of ZnO clusters. The ZnO clusters encapsulated in SBA-15 can be used as light-emitting diodes and ultraviolet nanolasers

Multiplex RT-PCR Amplification of HIV Genes to Create a Completely Autologous DC-Based Immunotherapy for the Treatment of HIV Infection

BACKGROUND: Effective therapy for HIV-infected individuals remains an unmet medical need. Promising clinical trials with dendritic cell (DC)-based immunotherapy consisting of autologous DC loaded with autologous virus have been reported, however, these approaches depend on large numbers of HIV virions to generate sufficient doses for even limited treatment regimens. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The present study describes a novel approach for RT-PCR amplification of HIV antigens. Previously, RT-PCR amplification of autologous viral sequences has been confounded by the high mutation rate of the virus which results in unreliable primer-template binding. To resolve this problem we developed a multiplex RT-PCR strategy that allows reliable strain-independent amplification of highly polymorphic target antigens from any patient and requires neither viral sequence data nor custom-designed PCR primers for each individual. We demonstrate the application of our RT-PCR process to amplify translationally-competent RNA encoding regions of Gag, Vpr, Rev and Nef. The products amplified using this method represent a complex mixture of autologous antigens encoded by viral quasispecies. We further demonstrate that DCs electroporated with in vitro-transcribed HIV RNAs are capable of stimulating poly-antigen-specific CD8+ T cell responses in vitro. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study describes a strategy to overcome patient to patient viral diversity enabling strain-independent RT-PCR amplification of RNAs encoding sequence divergent quasispecies of Gag, Vpr, Rev and Nef from small volumes of infectious plasma. The approach allows creation of a completely autologous therapy that does not require advance knowledge of the HIV genomic sequences, does not have yield limitations and has no intact virus in the final product. The simultaneous use of autologous viral antigens and DCs may provoke broad patient-specific immune responses that could potentially induce effective control of viral loads in the absence of conventional antiretroviral drug therapy