Environmental Change at Deep-Sea Sponge Habitats Over the Last Half Century: A Model Hindcast Study for the Age of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Deep-sea sponges inhabit multiple areas of the deep North Atlantic at depths below 250 m. Living in the deep ocean, where environmental properties below the permanent thermocline generally change slowly, they may not easily acclimatize to abrupt changes in the environment. Until now consistent monitoring timeseries of the environment at deep sea sponge habitats are missing. Therefore, long-term simulation with coupled bio-physical models can shed light on the changes in environmental conditions sponges are exposed to. To investigate the variability of North Atlantic sponge habitats for the past half century, the deep-sea conditions have been simulated with a 67-year model hindcast from 1948 to 2014. The hindcast was generated using the ocean general circulation model HYCOM, coupled to the biogeochemical model ECOSMO. The model was validated at known sponge habitats with available observations of hydrography and nutrients from the deep ocean to evaluate the biases, errors, and drift in the model. Knowing the biases and uncertainties we proceed to study the longer-term (monthly to multi-decadal) environmental variability at selected sponge habitats in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. On these timescales, these deep sponge habitats generally exhibit small variability in the water-mass properties. Three of the sponge habitats, the Flemish Cap, East Greenland Shelf and North Norwegian Shelf, had fluctuations of temperature and salinity in 4–6 year periods that indicate the dominance of different water masses during these periods. The fourth sponge habitat, the Reykjanes Ridge, showed a gradual warming of about 0.4°C over the simulation period. The flux of organic matter to the sea floor had a large interannual variability, that, compared to the 67-year mean, was larger than the variability of primary production in the surface waters. Lateral circulation is therefore likely an important control mechanism for the influx of organic material to the sponge habitats. Simulated oxygen varies interannually by less than 1.5 ml/l and none of the sponge habitats studied had oxygen concentrations below hypoxic levels. The present study establishes a baseline for the recent past deep conditions that future changes in deep sea conditions from observations and climate models can be evaluated against.publishedVersio

Key physical processes and their model representation for projecting climate impacts on subarctic Atlantic net primary production: A synthesis

Oceanic net primary production forms the foundation of marine ecosystems. Understanding the impact of climate change on primary production is therefore critical and we rely on Earth System Models to project future changes. Stemming from their use of different physical dynamics and biogeochemical processes, these models yield a large spread in long-term projections of change on both the global and regional scale. Here we review the key physical processes and biogeochemical parameterizations that influence the estimation of primary production in Earth System Models and synthesize the available projections of productivity in the subarctic regions of the North Atlantic. The key processes and modelling issues we focus on are mixed layer depth dynamics, model resolution and the complexity and parameterization of biogeochemistry. From the model mean of five CMIP6 models, we found a large increase in PP in areas where the sea ice retreats throughout the 21st century. Stronger stratification and declining MLD in the Nordic Seas, caused by sea ice loss and regional freshening, reduce the vertical flux of nutrients into the photic zone. Following the synthesis of the primary production among the CMIP6 models, we recommend a number of measures: constraining model hindcasts through the assimilation of high-quality long-term observational records to improve physical and biogeochemical parameterizations in models, developing better parameterizations for the sub-grid scale processes, enhancing the model resolution, downscaling and multi-model comparison exercises for improved regional projections of primary production.publishedVersio

Controls on carbon export in the subtropical North Atlantic

We present a lower trophic level pelagic ecosystem model that allows the investigation of the role of hydrography, bacterial remineralization and detritus consumption on the strength of carbon export and its attenuation. We apply the model to investigate the controls on the carbon export at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study site (BATS) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean, Canary Islands (ESTOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic. In previous field studies, export ratios at 200 m (the ratio between particulate carbon export below the euphoric zone and primary production) were found to be 300-400% smaller at ESTOC compared to BATS. Our model results show that the magnitude and temporal variability of primary productivity and modeled carbon export are modulated by the intensity and duration of vertical mixing events. BATS, with a more dynamic physical environment, has winter mixed-layer depths on average 80 m deeper than ESTOC and is characterized by pulses of enhanced productivity and export. Our model demonstrates the influence of hydrography on export attenuation through (i) more stable water column dynamics at ESTOC that increase particle remineralization time scales and weaken export strength at ESTOC compared to BATS; and (ii) higher water temperatures at BATS in the mesopelagic between 200 and 500 m that increase remineralization rates compared to ESTOC. This results in reduced differences in export ratios within the mesopelagic between both stations that is confirmed by observations. Strengthening remineralization through (i) adding zooplankton feeding on detritus and (ii) increasing bacterial remineralization rates decrease export at all depths at both stations, and increase the modeled difference in 200 m export ratios between BATS and ESTOC from 7% to 17%, a difference that is still much smaller than observed. While we could demonstrate the skill of our model in testing the mechanisms that could lead to differences in regional carbon export, our results indicate that hydrography-driven residence times, zooplankton feeding on detritus and enhanced bacterial remineralization rates alone are insufficient in driving export ratio differences between BATS and ESTOC. On the other hand, modeled export proved to be highly sensitive to prescribed particle sinking speeds. Thus, community and site dependent processes that lead to variations in particle sinking speed and remineralization, together with potential differences in vertical migration by zooplankton and horizontal transport, may be additional processes explaining the observed differences in export ratios at BATS and ESTOC

A model hindcast of bottom environmental conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean 1948 to 2014

This dataset contains a model simulation of the environmental conditions close to the sea-floor from January 1948-April 2015. The simulations relies on the coupled physcial-biogeochemical HYCOM-ECOSMO and has been forced by a Global High Resolution Climate Reconstruction (ECHAM6). The dataset is monthly, it consist of temperature, salinity, currents, oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and silicate all interpolated to 1 meter above the sea floor. Additionally the dataset contains gross primary and secondary production integrated over the water column

Environmental Change at Deep-Sea Sponge Habitats Over the Last Half Century: A Model Hindcast Study for the Age of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Deep-sea sponges inhabit multiple areas of the deep North Atlantic at depths below 250 m. Living in the deep ocean, where environmental properties below the permanent thermocline generally change slowly, they may not easily acclimatize to abrupt changes in the environment. Until now consistent monitoring timeseries of the environment at deep sea sponge habitats are missing. Therefore, long-term simulation with coupled bio-physical models can shed light on the changes in environmental conditions sponges are exposed to. To investigate the variability of North Atlantic sponge habitats for the past half century, the deep-sea conditions have been simulated with a 67-year model hindcast from 1948 to 2014. The hindcast was generated using the ocean general circulation model HYCOM, coupled to the biogeochemical model ECOSMO. The model was validated at known sponge habitats with available observations of hydrography and nutrients from the deep ocean to evaluate the biases, errors, and drift in the model. Knowing the biases and uncertainties we proceed to study the longer-term (monthly to multi-decadal) environmental variability at selected sponge habitats in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. On these timescales, these deep sponge habitats generally exhibit small variability in the water-mass properties. Three of the sponge habitats, the Flemish Cap, East Greenland Shelf and North Norwegian Shelf, had fluctuations of temperature and salinity in 4–6 year periods that indicate the dominance of different water masses during these periods. The fourth sponge habitat, the Reykjanes Ridge, showed a gradual warming of about 0.4°C over the simulation period. The flux of organic matter to the sea floor had a large interannual variability, that, compared to the 67-year mean, was larger than the variability of primary production in the surface waters. Lateral circulation is therefore likely an important control mechanism for the influx of organic material to the sponge habitats. Simulated oxygen varies interannually by less than 1.5 ml/l and none of the sponge habitats studied had oxygen concentrations below hypoxic levels. The present study establishes a baseline for the recent past deep conditions that future changes in deep sea conditions from observations and climate models can be evaluated against

Assessing the impact of nutrient loads on eutrophication in a semi-enclosed bay combining observations and coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem modelling

Intense human activities may strongly affect coastal environments threatening natural, societal and economic resources. In order to propose adequate measures to preserve coastal marine areas, a thorough understanding of their physical and biogeochemical features is required. This study focuses on one such coastal area, Izmir Bay located in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Izmir Bay is a highly populated area subject to many human induced stressors such as pollution and eutrophication, that has been suffering high nutrient loads for decades. Despite the construction of the Çiğli waste water treatment plant in 2000-2001 to reduce eutrophication, such pressures continue to occur. To study the current physical and biogeochemical dynamics of Izmir Bay and their spatial and temporal variability, a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model (Delft3D modelling suite’s FLOW and ECO modules) is implemented. Using the model, the effect of excessive inorganic nutrient loading on the marine ecosystem as the main cause of this eutrophication is explored in an effort to advise on mitigation efforts for the Bay focusing on eliminating eutrophication. Results of different model scenarios show that the Inner and Middle Bay are nitrogen-limited while the Outer Bay is phosphorus-limited. Inner regions are more sensitive to variations in inorganic nitrogen input due to the low (<16) N/P ratio of nutrients in seawater. An increase in inorganic nitrogen triggers eutrophication events with primary production as an immediate response. Conversely, the Outer Bay ecosystem with N/P ratios above 16 is more sensitive to phosphate inputs, of which an increase causes a considerable enhancement in algal production. This study shows the vulnerability of Izmir Bay to anthropogenic nutrient input and model simulations indicate that management plans should consider reducing DIN discharges both in the inner-middle zones of Izmir Bay as well as inputs from the Gediz River. Additionally, phosphate inputs should be reduced to avoid an overall increase of algal production in the Outer Bay, the larger part of Izmir Bay