Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics

We introduce a conceptual bridge between the previously unlinked fields of phylogenetics and mathematical spatial ecology, which enables the spatial parameters of an emerging epidemic to be directly estimated from sampled pathogen genome sequences. By using phylogenetic history to correct for spatial autocorrelation, we illustrate how a fundamental spatial variable, the diffusion coefficient, can be estimated using robust nonparametric statistics, and how heterogeneity in dispersal can be readily quantified. We apply this framework to the spread of the West Nile virus across North America, an important recent instance of spatial invasion by an emerging infectious disease. We demonstrate that the dispersal of West Nile virus is greater and far more variable than previously measured, such that its dissemination was critically determined by rare, long-range movements that are unlikely to be discerned during field observations. Our results indicate that, by ignoring this heterogeneity, previous models of the epidemic have substantially overestimated its basic reproductive number. More generally, our approach demonstrates that easily obtainable genetic data can be used to measure the spatial dynamics of natural populations that are otherwise difficult or costly to quantify

Challenges to the surveillance of non-communicable diseases – a review of selected approaches

Background: The rising global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) necessitates the institutionalization of surveillance systems to track trends and evaluate interventions. However, NCD surveillance capacities vary across high- and low- and middle-income countries. The objective of the review was to analyse existing literature with respect to structures of health facility-based NCD surveillance systems and the lessons low- and middle-income countries can learn in setting up and running these systems. Methods: A literature review was conducted using Pub Med, Web of Knowledge and WHOLIS databases to identify citations published in English language between 1993 and 2013. In total, 20 manuscripts met inclusion criteria: 12 studies were analysed in respect to the surveillance approach, eight supporting documents in respect to general and regional challenges in NCD surveillance. Results: Eleven of the 12 studies identified were conducted in high-income countries. Five studies had a single disease focus, three a multiple NCD focus and three covered communicable as well as non-communicable diseases. Nine studies were passive assisted sentinel surveillance systems, of which six focused on the primary care level and three had additional active surveillance components, i.e., population-based surveys. The supporting documents reveal that NCD surveillance is rather limited in most low- and middle-income countries despite the increasing disease burden and its socioeconomic impact. Major barriers include institutional surveillance capacities and hence data availability. Conclusions: The review suggests that given the complex system requirements, multiple surveillance approaches are necessary to collect comprehensive information for effective NCD surveillance. Sentinel augmented facility-based surveillance, preferably supported by population-based surveys, can provide improved evidence and help budget scarce resources. Electronic supplementary material: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2570-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

An overview of geospatial methods used in unintentional injury epidemiology

BACKGROUND: Injuries are a leading cause of death and disability around the world. Injury incidence is often associated with socio-economic and physical environmental factors. The application of geospatial methods has been recognised as important to gain greater understanding of the complex nature of injury and the associated diverse range of geographically-diverse risk factors. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to provide an overview of geospatial methods applied in unintentional injury epidemiological studies. METHODS: Nine electronic databases were searched for papers published in 2000-2015, inclusive. Included were papers reporting unintentional injuries using geospatial methods for one or more categories of spatial epidemiological methods (mapping; clustering/cluster detection; and ecological analysis). Results describe the included injury cause categories, types of data and details relating to the applied geospatial methods. RESULTS: From over 6,000 articles, 67 studies met all inclusion criteria. The major categories of injury data reported with geospatial methods were road traffic (n = 36), falls (n = 11), burns (n = 9), drowning (n = 4), and others (n = 7). Grouped by categories, mapping was the most frequently used method, with 62 (93%) studies applying this approach independently or in conjunction with other geospatial methods. Clustering/cluster detection methods were less common, applied in 27 (40%) studies. Three studies (4%) applied spatial regression methods (one study using a conditional autoregressive model and two studies using geographically weighted regression) to examine the relationship between injury incidence (drowning, road deaths) with aggregated data in relation to explanatory factors (socio-economic and environmental). CONCLUSION: The number of studies using geospatial methods to investigate unintentional injuries has increased over recent years. While the majority of studies have focused on road traffic injuries, other injury cause categories, particularly falls and burns, have also demonstrated the application of these methods. Geospatial investigations of injury have largely been limited to mapping of data to visualise spatial structures. Use of more sophisticated approaches will help to understand a broader range of spatial risk factors, which remain under-explored when using traditional epidemiological approaches

A Serious Game for Changing Mindsets About Loans for Home Retrofitting

Adding energy-saving products to your house can benefit the economy, the environment and your living comfort. However, these products are very costly, and many people cannot afford them using their own savings. There exist several options for funding these projects, but people do not take advantage of such due to lack of information and the common negative view on using external funding. Psychological objections on taking loans include future time perspective, perception of short time rewards and connotation of loans itself. This paper presents a serious game aimed at changing people’s mindset on taking loans to retrofit energy into their homes; Supreme Green Time Machine is a tycoon game in which you can acquire energy-saving products for your home. A main mechanic in the game is the opportunity to take loans to fund the purchase of these upgrades. Combined with other underlying mechanics, such as the time progress and social feedback, the game targets the different psychological objections to long term loans for home retrofitting. From a preliminary evaluation, we conclude that Supreme Green Time Machine effectively succeeds in making players more positive towards using loans to retrofit their homes.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Comp Graphics & Visualisatio