10 research outputs found

    c-FLIP comme une cible anticancéreuse : Restauration de la voie apoptotique des cellules cancéreuses par des nouveaux composés identifiés par criblage virtuel

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    FLIP (FLICE inhibitory protein) est une protĂ©ine anti-apoptotique qui a des identitĂ©s de sĂ©quence partagĂ©es avec la protĂ©ine pro-apoptotique caspase-8. FLIP se trouve en compĂ©tence avec caspase-8 pour se fixer sur la protĂ©ine adaptatrice FADD, ce qui empĂȘche l’activation de caspase-8 bloquant ainsi l'apoptose. Lors du dĂ©veloppement des molĂ©cules interfĂ©rant avec des protĂ©ines anti-apoptotiques, la recherche d'inhibiteurs de la protĂ©ine FLIP qui est surexprimĂ©e dans un trĂšs grand nombre de cancers, a Ă©chouĂ©. Cela s'explique en partie par le fait que peu d'information structurelle de FLIP est actuellement disponible TRAIL est une cytokine de la famille TNFα. Elle est dĂ©crite pour activer des voies de signalisation conduisant Ă  la mort cellulaire par apoptose. TRAIL a montrĂ© un grand intĂ©rĂȘt dans la thĂ©rapie anticancĂ©reuse, grĂące Ă  sa capacitĂ© d’induire la mort des cellules tumorales sans aucun effet sur les cellules normales. Cependant, l’efficacitĂ© de TRAIL est limitĂ©e par plusieurs mĂ©canismes molĂ©culaires. Un de ces mĂ©canismes est la surexpression de FLIP qui fait compromettre l’utilisation thĂ©rapeutique de TRAIL. Le but principal de ce projet est de dĂ©velopper des nouvelles molĂ©cules capables d’inhiber la protĂ©ine FLIP dans les cellules tumorales, sans aucun effet sur la protĂ©ine homologue caspase-8. AprĂšs modĂ©lisation des protĂ©ines FLIP et caspase-8 sur la base de la structure cristallographique de FLIP viral et FADD respectivement, des premiĂšres expĂ©riences d’ancrage ou “docking” utilisant une banque de composĂ©s chimiques du «National Cancer Institute NCI » ont Ă©tĂ© rĂ©alisĂ©es. Les 9 molĂ©cules les plus intĂ©ressantes, Ă©tant comme sĂ©lectives pour FLIP et non caspase 8, ont Ă©tĂ© sĂ©lectionnĂ©es et testĂ©es sur des lignĂ©es de cancer de poumons surexprimant la protĂ©ine FLIP. Une co-administration de chacune des molĂ©cules inhibitrices de FLIP avec TRAIL a Ă©tĂ© faite pour vĂ©rifier la restauration de la voie apoptotique dans les cellules cancĂ©reuses. Un test molĂ©culaire de « Pull down assay » a Ă©tĂ© fait afin de confirmer l’inhibition de l’interaction de FLIP avec FADD. Finalement, l’évaluation de l’activitĂ© enzymatique des caspases a Ă©tĂ© Ă©tudiĂ©e pour vĂ©rifier la rĂ©activation de la voie apoptotique aprĂšs la combinaison de TRAIL avec les inhibiteurs de c-FLIP. En conclusion, la combinaison de TRAIL avec les inhibiteurs de FLIP aboutit Ă  la restauration de la voie apoptotique dans des cellules cancĂ©reuses. Ces composĂ©s nouvellement identifiĂ©s, peuvent servir ultĂ©rieurement comme des potentiels Ă©lĂ©ments des stratĂ©gies utilisĂ©es dans le domaine du traitement du cancer.FLIP (FLICE Inhibitory Protein) is an anti-apoptotic protein which shares sequencesimilarity with the pro-apoptotic protein caspase-8. FLIP competes with caspase-8 for binding to the adaptor protein FADD (Fas-associated death domain), thus it inhibits caspase-8 activation, thereby blocking apoptosis. During the development of molecules interfering with anti-apoptotic proteins, searching for inhibitors of FLIP protein which is overexpressed in a very large number of cancers, has failed. This is partly due to the fact that little FLIP structural information is available at present. TRAIL is a member of TNFα superfamily. It has been described to activate the apoptotic signaling pathways. TRAIL showed great interest in anti-cancer therapy, due to its ability to induce tumor cell death without any effect on normal cells. However, the efficacy of TRAIL is limited by several molecular mechanisms. One of these mechanisms is the overexpression of FLIP which is able to compromise the therapeutic use of TRAIL. The main goal of this project is to develop novel inhibitory molecules able to interfere with FLIP in tumor cells without any effect on the homologous protein caspase 8. After the construction of FLIP and caspase-8 proteins on the basis of the crystallographic structure of the viral FLIP and FADD respectively, the first docking experiments using a chemical library of the National Cancer Institute NCI have been carried out. The most interesting molecules, being selective for FLIP versus caspase 8, were selected and tested on lung cancer cell lines that overexpress FLIP protein. Co-administration of FLIP inhibitors with TRAIL was performed to verify the restoration of the apoptotic pathway in cancer cells. A molecular test of "Pull down assay" was done in order to confirm the inhibition of the FLIP/FADD interaction. Finally, the evaluation of caspases activity was carried out to confirm the reactivation of the apoptotic machinery after TRAIL/FLIP-inhibitors combination. In conclusion, the combination of TRAIL with FLIP inhibitors resulted in apoptosis restoration in resistant tumor cells. These newly identified compounds may serve later as potential elements in cancer treatment field

    Role of the tumor microenvironment in regulating apoptosis and cancer progression

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    International audienceApoptosis is a gene-directed program that is engaged to efficiently eliminate dysfunctional cells. Evasion of apoptosis may be an important gate to tumor initiation and therapy resistance. Like any other developmental program, apoptosis can be disrupted, by several genetic aberrations driving malignant cells into an uncontrolled progression and survival. For its sustained growth, cancer develops in a complex environment, which provides survival signals and rescues malignant cells from apoptosis. Recent studies have clearly shown a wide interaction between tumor cells and their microenvironment, confirming the influence of the surrounding cells on tumor expansion and invasion. These non-malignant cells not only intensify tumor cells growth but also upgrade the process of metastasis. The strong crosstalk between malignant cells and a reactive microenvironment is mediated by soluble chemokines and cytokines, which act on tumor cells through surface receptors. Disturbing the microenvironment signaling might be an encouraging approach for patient's treatment. Therefore, the ultimate knowledge of "tumormicroenvironment" interactions facilitates the identification of novel therapeutic procedures that mobilize cancer cells from their supportive cells. This review focuses on cancer progression mediated by the dysfunction of apoptosis and by the fundamental relationship between tumor and reactive cells. New insights and valuable targets for cancer prevention and therapy are also presented

    The Identification of New c-FLIP Inhibitors for Restoring Apoptosis in TRAIL-Resistant Cancer Cells

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    International audienceThe catalytically inactive caspase-8-homologous protein, c-FLIP, is a potent antiapoptotic protein highly expressed in various types of cancers. c-FLIP competes with caspase-8 for binding to the adaptor protein FADD (Fas-Associated Death Domain) following death receptors' (DRs) activation via the ligands of the TNF-R family. As a consequence, the extrinsic apoptotic signaling pathway involving DRs is inhibited. The inhibition of c-FLIP activity in tumor cells might enhance DR-mediated apoptosis and overcome immune and anticancer drug resistance. Based on an in silico approach, the aim of this work was to identify new small inhibitory molecules able to bind selectively to c-FLIP and block its anti-apoptotic activity. Using a homology 3D model of c-FLIP, an in silico screening of 1880 compounds from the NCI database (National Cancer Institute) was performed. Nine molecules were selected for in vitro assays, based on their binding affinity to c-FLIP and their high selectivity compared to caspase-8. These molecules selectively bind to the Death Effector Domain 2 (DED2) of c-FLIP. We have tested in vitro the inhibitory effect of these nine molecules using the human lung cancer cell line H1703, overexpressing c-FLIP. Our results showed that six of these newly identified compounds efficiently prevent FADD/c-FLIP interactions in a molecular pull-down assay, as well as in a DISC immunoprecipitation assay. The overexpression of c-FLIP in H1703 prevents TRAIL-mediated apoptosis; however, a combination of TRAIL with these selected molecules significantly restored TRAIL-induced cell death by rescuing caspase cleavage and activation. Altogether, our findings indicate that new inhibitory chemical molecules efficiently prevent c-FLIP recruitment into the DISC complex, thus restoring the caspase-8-dependent apoptotic cascade. These results pave the way to design new c-FLIP inhibitory molecules that may serve as anticancer agents in tumors overexpressing c-FLIP

    Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022

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    Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

    Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    No full text
    BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.</p
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