Macro Events and Micro Responses: Experiences from Bolivia and Guatemala

For Bolivia and Guatemala, the2007–08 food price crisis contributed to a slowdown in the economy and increased unemployment. For the poorer population the crisis meant an overstretching of the household finances and increased difficulties for ensuring household food security. Since 2010, food price increases have continued in both countries. Bolivian and Guatemalan households have coped and adapted to their current economic stress through a diverse set of mechanisms affecting not only family structures, dynamics and productivity, but also their future economic prospects. At an aggregate level, the outcomes are substantial. The reported and measured changes in dietary quality and intake have certainly had an impact on the population's nutritional status and general health. Longer?term effects at the national level will likely follow in the coming years. In both countries, the national governments need to strengthen their efforts for facilitating the access to quality employment, social protection, and to affordable and nutritious foods

How to sustain entrepreneurial performance during the current financial crisis

In a debt-ridden society that badly needs to grow economically, policies controlling the flows of economic accounts (revenues and expenditures) should be consistent with an efficient “asset and liability management”. The extra money obtained from immediate sales of idle or low-productive government properties can boost economic growth if lent to innovative entrepreneurial firms

Getting real about food prices

The 2008 price spike in world grain prices had serious impacts on food security and poverty but analysts have consistently described these real food prices as low in historical terms. The inconsistency between the severity of the food crisis and low real prices results from the use of advanced and global economy price indices to calculate real prices. This ignores the high share of food in poor people’s expenditures and indirect effects of income growth on expenditure patterns of rich and poor consumers. Poor consumers have not experienced the same falls in real food prices as those with growing incomes and are more vulnerable to price shocks. As high and fluctuating international grain prices appear to be a feature of the current world economy, food price and policy analysis must recognise this, and develop and use different price indices that take account of differences between consumer groups

Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate Change and Sovereign Risk in Southeast Asia

This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country-specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country-specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much-needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries

Developing Local Currency Bond Markets for Long-term Development Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa

This article discusses the role that local currency bond markets (LCBMs) can play in the long-term financing of sustainable development of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies and presents an empirical analysis of the factors which may hinder or promote the development of such markets in SSA. Using a new dataset for 27 SSA countries, our findings support earlier research on SSA and other regions, showing that LCBM development is related to country size, larger banking systems, greater trade openness and better regulatory frameworks and the rule of law. Foreign investor participation broadens the investor base and can give a boost to LCBM development, yet it may also increase volatility of international capital flows. Hence, with view to the experience of emerging economies in other regions, capital market liberalisation should be pursued only very cautiously and in pace with solid financial and institutional development

Taking the MDGs Beyond 2015: Hasten Slowly

The authors advise to hasten slowly in defining the successor framework to the MDGs. The review of progress in 2010 should not be intermingled with the intergovernmental discussions about the post?2015 framework. The latter should not start until a UN panel of Eminent Persons has prepared a set of thoughtful options and suggestions. The worst decision would be to keep the same MDGs and add new Goals and more Targets. The panel will have to address the following topics: (a) new structure; (b) new Targets; (c) collective nature of global Targets; (d) type of benchmarks; (e) new time horizon; and (f) disaggregated monitoring. The world will miss the MDGs largely because disparities within the majority of countries have grown to the point of slowing down national progress. In order to overcome the ‘tyranny of averages’, this article proposes a method of incorporating equity in national statistics

Anomaly or Augury? Global Food Prices Since 2007

This article reviews the dynamics of global food prices since the food crisis of2007–08, the extent to which international prices have influenced national prices and poverty and wellbeing outcomes, and considers whether this exceptional period represents an anomaly or likely signals future episodes of food price volatility. It finds that although some factors that contributed to recent events have eased considerably, some significant drivers remain structural threats to future food security. There is little reason to be confident that recent reductions in food prices and volatilities augur well for the food security or wellbeing of those living on low and precarious incomes in the future