3D climate modeling of close-in land planets: Circulation patterns, climate moist bistability and habitability

The inner edge of the classical habitable zone is often defined by the critical flux needed to trigger the runaway greenhouse instability. This 1D notion of a critical flux, however, may not be so relevant for inhomogeneously irradiated planets, or when the water content is limited (land planets). Here, based on results from our 3D global climate model, we find that the circulation pattern can shift from super-rotation to stellar/anti stellar circulation when the equatorial Rossby deformation radius significantly exceeds the planetary radius. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we also demonstrate the presence of systematic biases between mean surface temperatures or temperature profiles predicted from either 1D or 3D simulations. Including a complete modeling of the water cycle, we further demonstrate that for land planets closer than the inner edge of the classical habitable zone, two stable climate regimes can exist. One is the classical runaway state, and the other is a collapsed state where water is captured in permanent cold traps. We identify this "moist" bistability as the result of a competition between the greenhouse effect of water vapor and its condensation. We also present synthetic spectra showing the observable signature of these two states. Taking the example of two prototype planets in this regime, namely Gl581c and HD85512b, we argue that they could accumulate a significant amount of water ice at their surface. If such a thick ice cap is present, gravity driven ice flows and geothermal flux should come into play to produce long-lived liquid water at the edge and/or bottom of the ice cap. Consequently, the habitability of planets at smaller orbital distance than the inner edge of the classical habitable zone cannot be ruled out. Transiting planets in this regime represent promising targets for upcoming observatories like EChO and JWST.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics, complete abstract in the pdf, 18 pages, 18 figure

Indication of insensitivity of planetary weathering behavior and habitable zone to surface land fraction

It is likely that unambiguous habitable zone terrestrial planets of unknown water content will soon be discovered. Water content helps determine surface land fraction, which influences planetary weathering behavior. This is important because the silicate weathering feedback determines the width of the habitable zone in space and time. Here a low-order model of weathering and climate, useful for gaining qualitative understanding, is developed to examine climate evolution for planets of various land-ocean fractions. It is pointed out that, if seafloor weathering does not depend directly on surface temperature, there can be no weathering-climate feedback on a waterworld. This would dramatically narrow the habitable zone of a waterworld. Results from our model indicate that weathering behavior does not depend strongly on land fraction for partially ocean-covered planets. This is powerful because it suggests that previous habitable zone theory is robust to changes in land fraction, as long as there is some land. Finally, a mechanism is proposed for a waterworld to prevent complete water loss during a moist greenhouse through rapid weathering of exposed continents. This process is named a "waterworld self-arrest," and it implies that waterworlds can go through a moist greenhouse stage and end up as planets like Earth with partial ocean coverage. This work stresses the importance of surface and geologic effects, in addition to the usual incident stellar flux, for habitability.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, accepted at Ap

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets

Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m$^2$, significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.Comment: Published in Nature. Online publication date: December 12, 2013. Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio

What Are the Real Procedural Costs of Bariatric Surgery? A Systematic Literature Review of Published Cost Analyses

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this recordThis review aims to evaluate the current literature on the procedural costs of bariatric surgery for the treatment of severe obesity. Using a published framework for the conduct of micro-costing studies for surgical interventions, existing cost estimates from the literature are assessed for their accuracy, reliability and comprehensiveness based on their consideration of seven ‘important’ cost components. MEDLINE, PubMed, key journals and reference lists of included studies were searched up to January 2017. Eligible studies had to report per-case, total procedural costs for any type of bariatric surgery broken down into two or more individual cost components. A total of 998 citations were screened, of which 13 studies were included for analysis. Included studies were mainly conducted from a US hospital perspective, assessed either gastric bypass or adjustable gastric banding procedures and considered a range of different cost components. The mean total procedural costs for all included studies was US$14,389 (range, US$7423 to US$33,541). No study considered all of the recommended ‘important’ cost components and estimation methods were poorly reported. The accuracy, reliability and comprehensiveness of the existing cost estimates are, therefore, questionable. There is a need for a comparative cost analysis of the different approaches to bariatric surgery, with the most appropriate costing approach identified to be micro-costing methods. Such an analysis will not only be useful in estimating the relative cost-effectiveness of different surgeries but will also ensure appropriate reimbursement and budgeting by healthcare payers to ensure barriers to access this effective treatment by severely obese patients are minimised.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

The Influence of Nanoconfinement on Electrocatalysis

The use of nanoparticles and nanostructured electrodes are abundant in electrocatalysis. These nanometric systems contain elements of nanoconfinement in different degrees, depending on the geometry, which can have a much greater effect on the activity and selectivity than often considered. In this Review, we firstly identify the systems containing different degrees of nanoconfinement and how they can affect the activity and selectivity of electrocatalytic reactions. Then we follow with a fundamental understanding of how electrochemistry and electrocatalysis are affected by nanoconfinement, which is beginning to be uncovered, thanks to the development of new, atomically precise manufacturing and fabrication techniques as well as advances in theoretical modeling. The aim of this Review is to help us look beyond using nanostructuring as just a way to increase surface area, but also as a way to break the scaling relations imposed on electrocatalysis by thermodynamics

Cost of fertility treatment and live birth outcome in women of different ages and BMI

Acknowledgements We thank the Aberdeen Fertility Centre Database Committee and the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank Committee for giving us approval to use their databases. We thank the Data Management Team for extracting the required information from these databases. The views expressed in this paper represent the views of the authors and not necessarily the views of the funding bodies. Funding This study was partly funded by an NHS endowment grant (Grant Number 12/48) and DM by a Chief Scientist Office Postdoctoral Fellowship (Ref PDF/12/06).Peer reviewedPostprin

Eliciting risk preferences that predict risky health behaviour: A comparison of two approaches

Information on attitudes to risk could increase understanding of and explain risky health behaviors. We investigate two approaches to eliciting risk preferences in the health domain, a novel “indirect” lottery elicitation approach with health states as outcomes and a “direct” approach where respondents are asked directly about their willingness to take risks. We compare the ability of the two approaches to predict health-related risky behaviors in a general adult population. We also investigate a potential framing effect in the indirect lottery elicitation approach. We find that risk preferences elicited using the direct approach can better predict health-related risky behavior than those elicited using the indirect approach. Moreover, a seemingly innocuous change to the framing of the lottery question results in significantly different risk preference estimates, and conflicting conclusions about the ability of the indicators to predict risky health behaviors

An Artificial Enzyme: How Nanoconfinement Allows the Selective Electrochemical Detection of Glucose Directly in Whole Blood

Nanoparticles that catalyze biochemically relevant reactions are promoted as alternative enzymes. The application of such artificial enzymes is severely restricted by poor selectivity in biological fluids; mainly because the reactions occur at active sites on the exterior surface of the nanoparticle. Enzymes in contrast typically have their active sites down a nanoconfined substrate channel where the reaction occurs in different solution conditions to bulk solution which aids in achieving selectivity for the substrate. Herein the same 3D structure of enzymes is mimicked in nanoparticles to allow selective reactions in biological fluids. This is achieved using a gold nanoparticle coated in a conducting mesoporous carbon shell where isolated nanochannels lead to the gold surface. It can detect glucose in whole blood with no interference from other species. This is achieved by electrochemically pulsing the artificial enzymes to generate the locally required alkalinity for an effective electrocatalytic reaction in the nanochannels, as well as expelling fouling agents that will otherwise passivate the electrocatalytic reaction. The artificial enzymes are shown to be capable of detecting glucose in biological fluids, without loss of signal, for several months. This study shows how nanoconfinement in nanoparticles can be exploited to potentially allow a broad range of species to be selectively detected in biological fluids with stability that can exceed that of enzymes

The importance of nanoscale confinement to electrocatalytic performance

Electrocatalytic nanoparticles that mimic the three-dimensional geometric architecture of enzymes where the reaction occurs down a substrate channel isolated from bulk solution, referred to herein as nanozymes, were used to explore the impact of nano-confinement on electrocatalytic reactions. Surfactant covered Pt-Ni nanozyme nanoparticles, with Ni etched from the nanoparticles, possess a nanoscale channel in which the active sites for electrocatalysis of oxygen reduction are located. Different particle compositions and etching parameters allowed synthesis of nanoparticles with different average substrate channel diameters that have varying amounts of nano-confinement. The results showed that in the kinetically limited regime at low overpotentials, the smaller the substrate channels the higher the specific activity of the electrocatalyst. This is attributed to higher concentrations of protons, relative to bulk solution, required to balance the potential inside the nano-confined channel. However, at higher overpotentials where limitation by mass transport of oxygen becomes important, the nanozymes with larger substrate channels showed higher electrocatalytic activity. A reaction-diffusion model revealed that the higher electrocatalytic activity at low overpotentials with smaller substrate channels can be explained by the higher concentration of protons. The model suggests that the dominant mode of mass transport to achieve these high concentrations is by migration, exemplifying how nano-confinement can be used to enhance reaction rates. Experimental and theoretical data show that under mass transport limiting potentials, the nano-confinement has no effect and the reaction only occurs at the entrance of the substrate channel at the nanoparticle surface