Spaceborne monitoring of high temperature volcanic thermal features: studies using the ERS Along Track Scanning Radiometer

Satellite-based instruments have long been suggested as suitable for monitoring thermal phenomena occurring at the surface of active volcanoes. Past studies using data from high spatial resolution instruments indicated the effectiveness of this technique, but such data are expensive, time-consuming to obtain, and offer a poor temporal resolution. This thesis uses data from the European Remote Sensing satellites’ Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) to analyse infrared thermal emittance from a variety of volcanic thermal features at low spatial resolution (1 km2) but high temporal resolution (~ 3 days), with data from vegetation fires also being investigated. I calibrate the (previously uncalibrated) 1.6 μm channel of ATSR-1, and go onto show how nighttime data in this waveband can be used to characterise emittance from high temperature surfaces, even if these are significantly smaller than the ATSR pixel size. Procedures are developed to detect hotspots in ATSR data, filter out cloud contaminated observations, and quantitatively analyse the measurements of infrared thermal flux. ATSR time-series datasets are then used to study thermal emittance from active lava domes at Lascar Volcano (Chile) and Unzen Volcano (Japan), with volcanological interpretations being made from the observed variations in radiance. At both volcanoes the dominant source of nighttime shortwave infrared thermal flux is found to be high temperature surfaces heated by fumarolic degassing. During the monitoring period, decreases in shortwave infrared flux indicate an increased hazard at Lascar, such a change indicating blockage of the degassing system and an increased likelihood of a major pressure-driven explosive event. The reverse is found to be true at Unzen, where increases in shortwave infrared flux are found to be generally related to increases in magma supply (both being positively correlated with the flux rate of magmatic gas) and so to an increased frequency of hazardous pyroclastic flow from the growing dome. ATSR time-series studies of active lava flows at Fernandina Volcano (Galápagos Islands) and Mount Etna (Sicily) indicate that such data can also be used to document the thermal evolution of a developing lava flow field. Though necessitating assumptions regarding the flow-field thermal structure, ATSR-based estimates of the area of emplaced lava compare favourably with those obtained using higher spatial resolution imagery. For the 1991 - 1993 Etna flow, the estimates of flow surface temperature and area are used to investigate the importance of the various heat loss mechanisms. Results indicate that radiative losses dominate, but that basal conduction is also highly significant. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) of NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) will soon provide a new source of multi-waveband, high temporal resolution data, available to the general volcanological and remote sensing community via the EOSDIS data network. I recommend that consideration be given to nighttime operation of the MODIS shortwave infrared channels, since studies using ATSR suggest that these data have considerable potential for the thermal monitoring of active volcanoes

An Overview of the Use of the SimSphere Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) Model for the Study of Land-Atmosphere Interactions

Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models consist of deterministic mathematical representations of the physical processes involved between the land surface and the atmosphere and of their interactions, at time-steps acceptable for the study of land surface processes. The present article provides a comprehensive and systematic review of one such SVAT model suitable for use in mesoscale or boundary layer studies, originally developed by [1]. This model, which has evolved significantly both architecturally and functionally since its foundation, has been widely applied in over thirty interdisciplinary science investigations, and it is currently used as a learning resource for students in a number of educational institutes globally. The present review is also regarded as very timely, since a variation of a method using this specific SVAT model along with satellite observations is currently being considered in a scheme being developed for the operational retrieval of soil surface moisture by the US National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), in a series of satellites that are due to be launched from 2016 onwards

A review of approaches to estimate wildfire plume injection height within large-scale atmospheric chemical transport models

Landscape fires produce smoke containing a very wide variety of chemical species, both gases and aerosols. For larger, more intense fires that produce the greatest amounts of emissions per unit time, the smoke tends initially to be transported vertically or semi-vertically close by the source region, driven by the intense heat and convective energy released by the burning vegetation. The column of hot smoke rapidly entrains cooler ambient air, forming a rising plume within which the fire emissions are transported. The characteristics of this plume, and in particular the height to which it rises before releasing the majority of the smoke burden into the wider atmosphere, are important in terms of how the fire emissions are ultimately transported, since for example winds at different altitudes may be quite different. This difference in atmospheric transport then may also affect the longevity, chemical conversion, and fate of the plumes chemical constituents, with for example very high plume injection heights being associated with extreme long-range atmospheric transport. Here we review how such landscape-scale fire smoke plume injection heights are represented in larger-scale atmospheric transport models aiming to represent the impacts of wildfire emissions on component of the Earth system. In particular we detail (i) satellite Earth observation data sets capable of being used to remotely assess wildfire plume height distributions and (ii) the driving characteristics of the causal fires. We also discuss both the physical mechanisms and dynamics taking place in fire plumes and investigate the efficiency and limitations of currently available injection height parameterizations. Finally, we conclude by suggesting some future parameterization developments and ideas on Earth observation data selection that may be relevant to the instigation of enhanced methodologies aimed at injection height representation

The Robertson v. Princeton Case: Too Important to Be Left to the Lawyers

Offers comments from eleven contributors on the Robertson family's donor rights suit against the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs for violation of donor intent. Explores its effects on and implications for the nonprofit sector

Space-based Observational Constraints for 1-D Plume Rise Models

We use a space-based plume height climatology derived from observations made by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard the NASA Terra satellite to evaluate the ability of a plume-rise model currently embedded in several atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs) to produce accurate smoke injection heights. We initialize the plume-rise model with assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System and estimated fuel moisture content at the location and time of the MISR measurements. Fire properties that drive the plume-rise model are difficult to estimate and we test the model with four estimates for active fire area and four for total heat flux, obtained using empirical data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) re radiative power (FRP) thermal anomalies available for each MISR plume. We show that the model is not able to reproduce the plume heights observed by MISR over the range of conditions studied (maximum r2 obtained in all configurations is 0.3). The model also fails to determine which plumes are in the free troposphere (according to MISR), key information needed for atmospheric models to simulate properly smoke dispersion. We conclude that embedding a plume-rise model using currently available re constraints in large-scale atmospheric studies remains a difficult proposition. However, we demonstrate the degree to which the fire dynamical heat flux (related to active fire area and sensible heat flux), and atmospheric stability structure influence plume rise, although other factors less well constrained (e.g., entrainment) may also be significant. Using atmospheric stability conditions, MODIS FRP, and MISR plume heights, we offer some constraints on the main physical factors that drive smoke plume rise. We find that smoke plumes reaching high altitudes are characterized by higher FRP and weaker atmospheric stability conditions than those at low altitude, which tend to remain confined below the BL, consistent with earlier results. We propose two simplified parameterizations for computing injection heights for fires in CTMs and discuss current challenges to representing plume injection heights in large scale atmospheric models

Lake Tanganyika Biodiversity Project Special Study on Sediment Discharge and its Consequences: Soil Erosion Modelling in the Lake Tanganyika Catchment

A regional scale soil erosion has been implemented on a daily and decadal timestep for the Lake Tanganyika catchment using remote sensing estimates of rainfall and vegetation cover. Remote sensing estimates of rainfall were found to be superior to those obtained using kriging of GTS raingauge data. Parameterisation of the model with these different spatial rainfall estimates produced quite different results in certain instances. The model has been implemented in a number of different ways in order to derive different information about both the lake and its catchment. We have demonstrated how the model can be used in near real time monitoring, and have shown how retrospective studies can be parameterised using the FEWS archive of rainfall estimates and ARTEMIS NDVI archive. Furthermore, we have developed scenarios of land degradation and deforestation in order to determine how the catchment responds under these conditions. Finally, we have developed a method of sediment routing that calculates sediment delivery ratio in order to estimate the amount of eroded sediment that reaches the lake. The results suggest that there are three regions of the lake catchment (one each in Burundi, Zaire and Tanzania) that are particularly sensitive to erosion. In Burundi deforestation is almost total and significant sediments appear to be entering the northern part of Lake Tanganyika. In Tanzania and The Democratic Republic of Congo deforestation is less complete and sediment yields do not appear to be so high

New Tropical Peatland Gas and Particulate Emissions Factors Indicate 2015 Indonesian Fires Released Far More Particulate Matter (but Less Methane) than Current Inventories Imply

Deforestation and draining of the peatlands in equatorial SE Asia has greatly increased their flammability, and in September-October 2015 a strong El Niño-related drought led to further drying and to widespread burning across parts of Indonesia, primarily on Kalimantan and Sumatra. These fires resulted in some of the worst sustained outdoor air pollution ever recorded, with atmospheric particulate matter (PM) concentrations exceeding those considered "extremely hazardous to health" by up to an order of magnitude. Here we report unique in situ air quality data and tropical peatland fire emissions factors (EFs) for key carbonaceous trace gases (CO2, CH4 and CO) and PM2.5 and black carbon (BC) particulates, based on measurements conducted on Kalimantan at the height of the 2015 fires, both at locations of "pure" sub-surface peat burning and spreading vegetation fires atop burning peat. PM2.5 are the most significant smoke constituent in terms of human health impacts, and we find in situ PM2.5 emissions factors for pure peat burning to be 17.8 to 22.3 g·kg-1, and for spreading vegetation fires atop burning peat 44 to 61 g·kg-1, both far higher than past laboratory burning of tropical peat has suggested. The latter are some of the highest PM2.5 emissions factors measured worldwide. Using our peatland CO2, CH4 and CO emissions factors (1779 ± 55 g·kg-1, 238 ± 36 g·kg-1, and 7.8 ± 2.3 g·kg-1 respectively) alongside in situ measured peat carbon content (610 ± 47 g-C·kg-1) we provide a new 358 Tg (± 30%) fuel consumption estimate for the 2015 Indonesian fires, which is less than that provided by the GFEDv4.1s and GFASv1.2 global fire emissions inventories by 23% and 34% respectively, and which due to our lower EFCH4 produces far less (~3×) methane. However, our mean in situ derived EFPM2.5 for these extreme tropical peatland fires (28 ± 6 g·kg-1) is far higher than current emissions inventories assume, resulting in our total PM2.5 emissions estimate (9.1 ± 3.5 Tg) being many times higher than GFEDv4.1s, GFASv1.2 and FINNv2, despite our lower fuel consumption. We find that two thirds of the emitted PM2.5 come from Kalimantan, one third from Sumatra, and 95% from burning peatlands. Using new geostationary fire radiative power (FRP) data we map the fire emissions' spatio-temporal variations in far greater detail than ever before (hourly, 0.05°), identifying a tropical peatland fire diurnal cycle twice as wide as in neighboring non-peat areas and peaking much later in the day. Our data show that a combination of greatly elevated PM2.5 emissions factors, large areas of simultaneous, long-duration burning, and very high peat fuel consumption per unit area made these Sept to Oct tropical peatland fires the greatest wildfire source of particulate matter globally in 2015, furthering evidence for a regional atmospheric pollution impact whose particulate matter component in particular led to millions of citizens being exposed to extremely poor levels of air quality for substantial periods. © 2018 by the authors

Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in preindustrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia