Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules

This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy for a range of alternative economic models in terms of a flexible inflation targeting rule, with a target criterion that depends on the model specification. It shows which forecast horizons should matter, and which variables besides inflation should be taken into account, for each specification. The likely quantitative significance of the various factors considered in the general discussion is then assessed by estimating a small, structural model of the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism with explicit optimizing foundations. An optimal policy rule is computed for the estimated model, and shown to correspond to a multi-stage inflation-forecast targeting procedure. The degree to which actual U.S. policy over the past two decades has conformed to the optimal target criteria is then considered.

Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications

In this paper we calculate robustly optimal monetary policy rules for several variants of a simple optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism with sticky prices and/or wages. We discuss representations of optimal policy both in terms of interest-rate feedback rules that generalize the well-known Taylor rule,' and in terms of commitment to a target criterion of the kind discussed in familiar proposals for flexible inflation targeting.' Optimal rules, however, require that policy be history-dependent in ways not contemplated by many well-known proposals. We furthermore find that a robustly optimal policy rule is almost inevitably an implicit rule, that requires the central bank to use a structural model to project the economy's evolution under the contemplated policy action. Finally, our numerical examples suggest that optimal rules do not place nearly as much weight on projections of inflation or output many quarters in the future as occurs under the current practice of inflation-forecast targeting central banks.

Neo-Darwinists and Neo-Aristotelians: how to talk about natural purpose

This paper examines the points of disagreement between Neo-Darwinian and recent Neo-Aristotelian discussions of the status of purposive language in biology. I discuss recent Neo-Darwinian “evolutionary” treatments and distinguish three ways to deal with the philosophical status of teleological language of purpose: teleological error theory, methodological teleology, and Darwinian teleological realism. I then show how “non-evolutionary” Neo-Aristotelian approaches in the work of Michael Thompson and Philippa Foot differ from these by offering a view of purposiveness grounded in life-cycle patterns, rather than in long-term evolutionary processes or natural selection. Finally, I argue that the crucial difference between Neo-Darwinian and Neo-Aristotelian approaches regards the question of whether or not reproduction deserves the status of an “ultimate” aim of organisms. I offer reasons to reject the concept of an “ultimate” aim in evolutionary biology and to reject the notion that reproduction serves a purpose. I argue that evolutionary biology is not in the position to determine what the “ultimate” explanation of natural purpose is

Compact Binary Waveform Center-of-Mass Corrections

We present a detailed study of the center-of-mass (c.m.) motion seen in simulations produced by the Simulating eXtreme Spacetimes (SXS) collaboration. We investigate potential physical sources for the large c.m. motion in binary black hole simulations and find that a significant fraction of the c.m. motion cannot be explained physically, thus concluding that it is largely a gauge effect. These large c.m. displacements cause mode mixing in the gravitational waveform, most easily recognized as amplitude oscillations caused by the dominant (2,$\pm$2) modes mixing into subdominant modes. This mixing does not diminish with increasing distance from the source; it is present even in asymptotic waveforms, regardless of the method of data extraction. We describe the current c.m.-correction method used by the SXS collaboration, which is based on counteracting the motion of the c.m. as measured by the trajectories of the apparent horizons in the simulations, and investigate potential methods to improve that correction to the waveform. We also present a complementary method for computing an optimal c.m. correction or evaluating any other c.m. transformation based solely on the asymptotic waveform data.Comment: 20 pages, 15 figure

Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules

This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy for a range of alternative economic models in terms of a flexible inflation targeting rule, with a target criterion that depends on the model specification. It shows which forecast horizons should matter, and which variables besides inflation should be taken into account, for each specification. The likely quantitative significance of the various factors considered in the general discussion is then assessed by estimating a small, structural model of the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism with explicit optimizing foundations. An optimal policy rule is computed for the estimated model, and shown to correspond to a multi-stage inflation-forecast targeting procedure. The degree to which actual U.S. policy over the past two decades has conformed to the optimal target criteria is then considered

Extra-intestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC): Disease, carriage and clones

Extra-intestinal pathogenic Escherichiacoli (ExPEC) have a complex phylogeny, broad virulence factor (VF) armament and significant genomic plasticity, and are associated with a spectrum of host infective syndromes ranging from simple urinary tract infection to life-threatening bacteraemia. Their importance as pathogens has come to the fore in recent years, particularly in the context of the global emergence of hyper-virulent and antibiotic resistant strains. Despite this, the mechanisms underlying ExPEC transmission dynamics and clonal selection remain poorly understood. Large-scale epidemiological and clinical studies are urgently required to ascertain the mechanisms underlying these processes to enable the development of novel evidence-based preventative and therapeutic strategies. In the current review, we provide a concise summary of the methods utilised for ExPEC phylogenetic delineation before exploring in detail the associations between ExPEC VFs and site-specific disease. We then consider the role of ExPEC as an intestinal colonist and outline known associations between ExPEC clonal variation, specific disease syndromes and antibiotic resistance

"I don't believe in leading a life of my own, I lead his life": A qualitative investigation of difficulties experienced by informal caregivers of stroke survivors experiencing depressive and anxious symptoms

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.OBJECTIVES: Health and social care services are increasingly reliant on informal caregivers to provide long-term support to stroke survivors. However, caregiving is associated with elevated levels of depression and anxiety in the caregiver that may also negatively impact stroke survivor recovery. This qualitative study aims to understand the specific difficulties experienced by caregivers experiencing elevated symptoms of anxiety and depression. METHODS: Nineteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with caregivers experiencing elevated levels of depression and anxiety, with a thematic analysis approach adopted for analysis. RESULTS: Analysis revealed three main themes: Difficulties adapting to the caring role; Uncertainty; and Lack of support. CONCLUSIONS: Caregivers experienced significant difficulties adapting to changes and losses associated with becoming a caregiver, such as giving up roles and goals of importance and value. Such difficulties persisted into the long-term and were coupled with feelings of hopelessness and worry. Difficulties were further exacerbated by social isolation, lack of information and poor long-term health and social care support. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: A greater understanding of difficulties experienced by depressed and anxious caregivers may inform the development of psychological support targeting difficulties unique to the caring role. Improving caregiver mental health may also result in health benefits for stroke survivors themselves.This work was supported by the Dunhill Medical Trust (grant number: RTF43/1111). JW was the recipient of the Dunhill Medical Trust Research Training Fellowship. DJL is supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula. We are grateful for the support provided by the Stroke Association; Different Strokes; Carers UK; Headway and Unite Devon. Additionally, we thank all the participants in the stud

The Very Possibility of a Science of Religion: Ernst Troeltsch and Neo-Kantianism

Ernst Troeltsch appended an intriguing and cryptic footnote in 1912 to an early essay from 1893/94 that was to be republished in a new volume of his collected works, The Christian Worldview and Its Counter-Currents (Die Christliche Weltanschauung und Ihre Gegenströmungen), in which he declared that the intervening years had resulted in “a shift of philosophical standpoint from Lotze and Dilthey to Windelband and Rickert.”1 Troeltsch repeated this claim in his late autobiographical essay from 1922, “My Books” (Meine Bücher), which went on to elaborate in greater detail what this shift consisted of. The question of what precisely changed in Troeltsch’s outlook has been the topic of much debate, fueled in part by that fact that in both instances Troeltsch immediately qualified his professed “shift” in a manner that left it unclear to what extent, if any, his views were actually aligned with the Baden neo-Kantian school that culminated in Rickert, and that he clearly admired. On the one hand, this question might be considered merely biographical minutia of early twentieth-century German thought. On the other, it concerns a key and foundational problem that continues to arise for scholars of religion as they address the place of philosophy in the field, next to historical, anthropological, and social scientific approaches.2 Troeltsch’s move from Lotze and Dilthey to Windelband and Rickert signified a new way of understanding the role of normative inquiry and values in scholarship and scientific research. For Troeltsch, and for the Baden school, the problem of normativity more than any other became a point of contact that exposed the fault lines between the sciences, philosophy, and religious thought itself. The primary goal of this essay is to use the question of the extent to which Troeltsch actually adopted Rickert’s theory of normativity to uncover an illuminating episode at the origins of a persisting issue in the field. This episode is especially relevant precisely because it took place during the early period in which a so-called properly scientific study of religion (Religionswissenschaft) was being conceived and established within the academy.Templeton World Charity Foundatio

Optimising invasive fish management in the context of invasive species legislation in South Africa

South Africa hosts a large number of non-native freshwater fishes that were introduced for various industries. Many of these species are now listed under the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act (NEM:BA) Alien and Invasive Species (A&IS) lists and regulations, though the practical options available to conservation agencies to effectively manage these fishes vary greatly among species and regions. Objectives & methods: We assessed the history and status of national legislation pertaining to invasive freshwater fishes, and the practical implications of the legislation for managing different species with contrasting distributions, impacts and utilisation value. Results: The smallmouth bass, despite being a potential conflict-generating species, is fairly straightforward to manage based on current legislation. Two species of trout, which remain absent from the NEM:BA A&IS lists because of ongoing consultation with stakeholders, continue to be managed in regions like the Western Cape province using existing provincial legislation. To maximise the limited capacity for management within conservation agencies, we proposed a decision-support tool that prioritises invasive fish populations that represent high environmental risk and low potential for conflict with stakeholders. Using three case studies, we demonstrated how the tool can be used to set management goals of 'eradicate', 'manage against impacts and further spread' and 'continue to monitor population' as the most pragmatic solutions given the state of an invasion, its socio-economic impact and the capacity of the responsible agency to act. Conclusion: By choosing a pragmatic management strategy, conservation agencies can maximise the effective deployment of limited resources, while minimising avoidable conflicts with stakeholders.EM201