The opposite of Dante's hell? The transfer of ideas for social housing at international congresses in the 1850s–1860s

With the advent of industrialization, the question of developing adequate housing for the emergent working classes became more pressing than before. Moreover, the problem of unhygienic houses in industrial cities did not stop at the borders of a particular nation-state; sometimes literally as pandemic diseases spread out 'transnationally'. It is not a coincidence that in the nineteenth century the number of international congresses on hygiene and social topics expanded substantially. However, the historiography about social policy in general and social housing in particular, has often focused on individual cases because of the different pace of industrial and urban development and is thus dominated by national perspectives. In this paper, I elaborate on transnational exchange processes and local adaptations and transformations. I focus on the transfer of the housing model of SOMCO in Mulhouse, (a French house building association) during social international congresses. I examine whether cross-national networking enabled and facilitated the implementation of ideas on the local scale. I will elaborate on the transmission and the local adaptation of the Mulhouse-model in Belgium. Convergences, divergences, and different factors that influenced the local transformations (personal choice, political situation, socioeconomic circumstances) will be taken into accoun

Fundamental properties of the Population II fiducial stars HD 122563 and Gmb 1830 from CHARA interferometric observations

We have determined the angular diameters of two metal-poor stars, HD 122563 and Gmb 1830, using CHARA and Palomar Testbed Interferometer observations. For the giant star HD 122563, we derive an angular diameter theta_3D = 0.940 +- 0.011 milliarcseconds (mas) using limb-darkening from 3D convection simulations and for the dwarf star Gmb 1830 (HD 103095) we obtain a 1D limb-darkened angular diameter theta_1D = 0.679 +- 0.007 mas. Coupling the angular diameters with photometry yields effective temperatures with precisions better than 55 K (Teff = 4598 +- 41 K and 4818 +- 54 K --- for the giant and the dwarf star, respectively). Including their distances results in very well-determined luminosities and radii (L = 230 +- 6 L_sun, R = 23.9 +- 1.9 R_sun and L = 0.213 +- 0.002 L_sun, R = 0.664 +- 0.015 R_sun, respectively). We used the CESAM2k stellar structure and evolution code in order to produce models that fit the observational data. We found values of the mixing-length parameter alpha (which describes 1D convection) that depend on the mass of the star. The masses were determined from the models with precisions of <3% and with the well-measured radii excellent constraints on the surface gravity are obtained (log g = 1.60 +- 0.04, 4.59 +- 0.02, respectively). The very small errors on both log g and Teff provide stringent constraints for spectroscopic analyses given the sensitivity of abundances to both of these values. The precise determination of Teff for the two stars brings into question the photometric scales for metal-poor stars.Comment: accepted A&A, 8 dbl-column pages, incl. 7 tables and 4 figure

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

We compare forecasts of weekly case and death numbers for COVID-19 in Germany and Poland based on 15 different modelling approaches. These cover the period from January to April 2021 and address numbers of cases and deaths one and two weeks into the future, along with the respective uncertainties. We find that combining different forecasts into one forecast can enable better predictions. However, case numbers over longer periods were challenging to predict. Additional data sources, such as information about different versions of the SARS-CoV-2 virus present in the population, might improve forecasts in the future

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic

Mittheilungen über Tuffstein, Trass und einige andere Baumaterialien der Vulkanischen Eifel

von H. Wolffra