Creep-rupture reliability analysis

A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep

A new model to determine the dispersion of fatigue damage evaluations

Reliable predictions of remaining lives of civil or mechanical structures subjected to fatigue damage are very difficult to be made. In general, fatigue damage is extremely sensitive to the random variations of material mechanical properties, environment and loading. These variations may induce large dispersions when the structural fatigue life has to be predicted. Wirsching (1970) mentions dispersions of the order of 30 to 70 % of the mean calculated life. The presented paper introduces a model to estimate the fatigue damage dispersion based on known statistical distributions of the fatigue parameters (material properties and loading). The model is developed by expanding into Taylor series the set of equations that describe fatigue damage for crack initiation

Psychosocial primary care – what patients expect from their General Practitioners A cross-sectional trial

BACKGROUND: Psychosocial Primary Care (PPC) is a model of service delivery for patients with mental disorders and psychosocial problems which was established in Germany in 1987. This study was performed as part of the evaluation of a PPC training program. We investigated patients' expectations of the psychosocial treatment offered by GPs trained in PPC. METHODS: Ten general practitioners trained in PPC were randomly selected. Two hundred and twenty patients were surveyed in the waiting room regarding their expectations concerning psychological treatment. RESULTS: Eighty-five per cent of patients could envisage making use of psychosocial treatments. Counselling by the GP was considered most important (65%). Fifty-four per cent of patients indicated that there was sufficient counselling, but further distinctions revealed dissatisfaction with both the extent and content of the counselling. Lack of time was the most frequent reason (53%) cited for insufficient counselling. A willingness to discuss the psychological aspects of illness was exhibited by between 55% (current illness) and 79% of patients. Two-thirds of patients believed that discussing psychological aspects and counselling by the doctor could exert a healing effect or contribute to symptomatic improvement in physical illnesses. Younger patients and patients with experience in psychotherapy expected referral to mental health services. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care patients desire and accept psychological treatment from their GP. Training in psychosocial competence in primary care should be offered more frequently

Efflux in Fungi: La Pièce de Résistance

Pathogens must be able to overcome both host defenses and antimicrobial treatment in order to successfully infect and maintain colonization of the host. One way fungi accomplish this feat and overcome intercellular toxin accumulation is efflux pumps, in particular ATP-binding cassette transporters and transporters of the major facilitator superfamily. Members of these two superfamilies remove many toxic compounds by coupling transport with ATP hydrolysis or a proton gradient, respectively. Fungal genomes encode a plethora of members of these families of transporters compared to other organisms. In this review we discuss the role these two fungal superfamilies of transporters play in virulence and resistance to antifungal agents. These efflux transporters are responsible not only for export of compounds involved in pathogenesis such as secondary metabolites, but also export of host-derived antimicrobial compounds. In addition, we examine the current knowledge of these transporters in resistance of pathogens to clinically relevant antifungal agents

Integrated Molecular-Morphologic Meningioma Classification: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis, Retrospectively and Prospectively Validated

PURPOSE: Meningiomas are the most frequent primary intracranial tumors. Patient outcome varies widely from benign to highly aggressive, ultimately fatal courses. Reliable identification of risk of progression for individual patients is of pivotal importance. However, only biomarkers for highly aggressive tumors are established (CDKN2A/B and TERT), whereas no molecularly based stratification exists for the broad spectrum of patients with low- and intermediate-risk meningioma. METHODS: DNA methylation data and copy-number information were generated for 3,031 meningiomas (2,868 patients), and mutation data for 858 samples. DNA methylation subgroups, copy-number variations (CNVs), mutations, and WHO grading were analyzed. Prediction power for outcome was assessed in a retrospective cohort of 514 patients, validated on a retrospective cohort of 184, and on a prospective cohort of 287 multicenter cases. RESULTS: Both CNV- and methylation family-based subgrouping independently resulted in increased prediction accuracy of risk of recurrence compared with the WHO classification (c-indexes WHO 2016, CNV, and methylation family 0.699, 0.706, and 0.721, respectively). Merging all risk stratification approaches into an integrated molecular-morphologic score resulted in further substantial increase in accuracy (c-index 0.744). This integrated score consistently provided superior accuracy in all three cohorts, significantly outperforming WHO grading (c-index difference P = .005). Besides the overall stratification advantage, the integrated score separates more precisely for risk of progression at the diagnostically challenging interface of WHO grade 1 and grade 2 tumors (hazard ratio 4.34 [2.48-7.57] and 3.34 [1.28-8.72] retrospective and prospective validation cohorts, respectively). CONCLUSION: Merging these layers of histologic and molecular data into an integrated, three-tiered score significantly improves the precision in meningioma stratification. Implementation into diagnostic routine informs clinical decision making for patients with meningioma on the basis of robust outcome prediction