Systematic Overestimation of Machine Learning Performance in Neuroimaging Studies of Depression

We currently observe a disconcerting phenomenon in machine learning studies in psychiatry: While we would expect larger samples to yield better results due to the availability of more data, larger machine learning studies consistently show much weaker performance than the numerous small-scale studies. Here, we systematically investigated this effect focusing on one of the most heavily studied questions in the field, namely the classification of patients suffering from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and healthy controls. Drawing upon a balanced sample of $N = 1,868$ MDD patients and healthy controls from our recent international Predictive Analytics Competition (PAC), we first trained and tested a classification model on the full dataset which yielded an accuracy of 61%. Next, we mimicked the process by which researchers would draw samples of various sizes ($N=4$ to $N=150$) from the population and showed a strong risk of overestimation. Specifically, for small sample sizes ($N=20$), we observe accuracies of up to 95%. For medium sample sizes ($N=100$) accuracies up to 75% were found. Importantly, further investigation showed that sufficiently large test sets effectively protect against performance overestimation whereas larger datasets per se do not. While these results question the validity of a substantial part of the current literature, we outline the relatively low-cost remedy of larger test sets

Epstein-Barr virus ensures B cell survival by uniquely modulating apoptosis at early and late times after infection

Abstract Latent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is causally linked to several human cancers. EBV expresses viral oncogenes that promote cell growth and inhibit the apoptotic response to uncontrolled proliferation. The EBV oncoprotein LMP1 constitutively activates NFkB and is critical for survival of EBV-immortalized B cells. However, during early infection EBV induces rapid B cell proliferation with low levels of LMP1 and little apoptosis. Therefore, we sought to define the mechanism of survival in the absence of LMP1/NFkB early after infection. We used BH3 profiling to query mitochondrial regulation of apoptosis and defined a transition from uninfected B cells (BCL-2) to early-infected (MCL-1/BCL-2) and immortalized cells (BFL-1). This dynamic change in B cell survival mechanisms is unique to virus-infected cells and relies on regulation of MCL-1 mitochondrial localization and BFL-1 transcription by the viral EBNA3A protein. This study defines a new role for EBNA3A in the suppression of apoptosis with implications for EBV lymphomagenesis

Human Genome-Wide RNAi Screen for Host Factors That Modulate Intracellular Salmonella Growth

Salmonella enterica is a bacterial pathogen of humans that can proliferate within epithelial cells as well as professional phagocytes of the immune system. While much has been learned about the microbial genes that influence the infectious process through decades of intensive research, relatively little is known about the host factors that affect infection. We performed a genome-wide siRNA screen to identify host genes that Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. typhimurium) utilizes to facilitate growth within human epithelial cells. In this screen, with siRNAs targeting every predicted gene in the human genome, we identified 252 new human-host-susceptibility factors (HSFs) for S. typhimurium. We also identified 39 genes whose silencing results in increased intracellular growth of S. typhimurium. The HSFs identified are regulated most centrally by NFκB and associate with each other through an extremely dense network of interactions that center around a group of kinases. Most genes identified were not previously appreciated as playing roles in the intracellular lifecycle of S. enterica. Numerous HSFs identified with interesting characteristics that could play plausible roles in mediating intracellular microbial growth are discussed. Importantly, this study reveals significant overlap between the host network that supports S. typhimurium growth within human epithelial cells and the one that promotes the growth of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within human macrophages. In addition to providing much new information about the molecular mechanisms underlying S. enterica-host cell interplay, all 252 HSFs identified are candidates for new anti-microbial targets for controlling S. enterica infections, and some may provide broad-spectrum anti-microbial activity

Molecular fingerprinting of radiation resistant tumors: Can we apprehend and rehabilitate the suspects?

Radiation therapy continues to be one of the more popular treatment options for localized prostate cancer. One major obstacle to radiation therapy is that there is a limit to the amount of radiation that can be safely delivered to the target organ. Emerging evidence suggests that therapeutic agents targeting specific molecules might be combined with radiation therapy for more effective treatment of tumors. Recent studies suggest that modulation of these molecules by a variety of mechanisms (e.g., gene therapy, antisense oligonucleotides, small interfering RNA) may enhance the efficacy of radiation therapy by modifying the activity of key cell proliferation and survival pathways such as those controlled by Bcl-2, p53, Akt/PTEN and cyclooxygenase-2. In this article, we summarize the findings of recent investigations of radiosensitizing agents in the treatment of prostate cancer

From multivariate methods to an AI ecosystem

Depression constitutes a leading cause of disability worldwide. Despite extensive research on its interaction with psychobiological factors, associated pathways are far from being elucidated. Metabolomics, assessing the final products of complex biochemical reactions, has emerged as a valuable tool for exploring molecular pathways. We conducted a metabolome-wide association analysis to investigate the link between the serum metabolome and depressed mood (DM) in 1411 participants of the KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Augsburg Region) F4 study (discovery cohort). Serum metabolomics data comprised 353 unique metabolites measured by Metabolon. We identified 72 (5.1%) KORA participants with DM. Linear regression tests were conducted modeling each metabolite value by DM status, adjusted for age, sex, body-mass index, antihypertensive, cardiovascular, antidiabetic, and thyroid gland hormone drugs, corticoids and antidepressants. Sensitivity analyses were performed in subcohorts stratified for sex, suicidal ideation, and use of antidepressants. We replicated our results in an independent sample of 968 participants of the SHIP-Trend (Study of Health in Pomerania) study including 52 (5.4%) individuals with DM (replication cohort). We found significantly lower laurylcarnitine levels in KORA F4 participants with DM after multiple testing correction according to Benjamini/Hochberg. This finding was replicated in the independent SHIP-Trend study. Laurylcarnitine remained significantly associated (p value < 0.05) with depression in samples stratified for sex, suicidal ideation, and antidepressant medication. Decreased blood laurylcarnitine levels in depressed individuals may point to impaired fatty acid oxidation and/or mitochondrial function in depressive disorders, possibly representing a novel therapeutic target

Epstein-Barr virus ensures B cell survival by uniquely modulating apoptosis at early and late times after infection

Latent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is causally linked to several human cancers. EBV expresses viral oncogenes that promote cell growth and inhibit the apoptotic response to uncontrolled proliferation. The EBV oncoprotein LMP1 constitutively activates NFκB and is critical for survival of EBV-immortalized B cells. However, during early infection EBV induces rapid B cell proliferation with low levels of LMP1 and little apoptosis. Therefore, we sought to define the mechanism of survival in the absence of LMP1/NFκB early after infection. We used BH3 profiling to query mitochondrial regulation of apoptosis and defined a transition from uninfected B cells (BCL-2) to early-infected (MCL-1/BCL-2) and immortalized cells (BFL-1). This dynamic change in B cell survival mechanisms is unique to virus-infected cells and relies on regulation of MCL-1 mitochondrial localization and BFL-1 transcription by the viral EBNA3A protein. This study defines a new role for EBNA3A in the suppression of apoptosis with implications for EBV lymphomagenesis. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.22509.00