Time is an affliction: Why ecology cannot be as predictive as physics and why it needs time series

Ecological systems depend on both constraints and historical contingencies, both of which shape their present observable system state. In contrast to ahistorical systems, which are governed solely by constraints (i.e. laws), historical systems and their dynamics can be understood only if properly described, in the course of time. Describing these dynamics and understanding long-termvariability can be seen as themission of long time series measuring not only simple abiotic features but also complex biological variables, such as species diversity and abundances, allowing deep insights in the functioning of food webs and ecosystems in general. Long timeseries are irreplaceable for understanding change, and crucially inherent system variability and thus envisaging future scenarios. This notwithstanding current policies in funding and evaluating scientific research discourage the maintenance of long term series, despite a clear need for long-term strategies to cope with climate change. Time series are crucial for a pursuit of the much invoked Ecosystem Approach and to the passage from simple monitoring programs of large-scale and long-termEarth observatories — thus promoting a better understanding of the causes and effects of change in ecosystems. The few ongoing long time series in European waters must be integrated and networked so as to facilitate the formation of nodes of a series of observatories which, together, should allowthe long-termmanagement of the features and characteristics of European waters. Human capacity building in this region of expertise and a stronger societal involvement are also urgently needed, since the expertise in recognizing and describing species and therefore recording them reliably in the context of time series is rapidly vanishing from the European Scientific community

Short-term changes in polysaccharide utilization mechanisms of marine bacterioplankton during a spring phytoplankton bloom

Spring phytoplankton blooms in temperate environments contribute disproportionately to global marine productivity. Bloom-derived organic matter, much of it occurring as polysaccharides, fuels biogeochemical cycles driven by interacting autotrophic and heterotrophic communities. We tracked changes in the mode of polysaccharide utilization by heterotrophic bacteria during the course of a diatom-dominated bloom in the German Bight, North Sea. Polysaccharides can be taken up in a ‘selfish’ mode, where initial hydrolysis is coupled to transport into the periplasm, such that little to no low-molecular weight (LMW) products are externally released to the environment. Alternatively, polysaccharides hydrolyzed by cell-surface attached or free extracellular enzymes (external hydrolysis) yield LMW products available to the wider bacterioplankton community. In the early bloom phase, selfish activity was accompanied by low extracellular hydrolysis rates of a few polysaccharides. As the bloom progressed, selfish uptake increased markedly, and external hydrolysis rates increased, but only for a limited range of substrates. The late bloom phase was characterized by high external hydrolysis rates of a broad range of polysaccharides and reduced selfish uptake of polysaccharides, except for laminarin. Substrate utilization mode is related both to substrate structural complexity and to the bloom-stage dependent composition of the heterotrophic bacterial community

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur