On modeling player fitness in training for team sports with application to professional rugby

It is increasingly important for professional sports teams to monitor player fitness in order to optimize performance. Models have been put forward linking fitness in training to performance in competition but rely on regular measurements of player fitness. As formal tests for measuring player fitness are typically time-consuming and inconvenient, measurements are taken infrequently. As such, it may be challenging to accurately predict performance in competition as player fitness is unknown. Alternatively, other data, such as how the players are feeling, may be measured more regularly. This data, however, may be biased as players may answer the questions differently and these differences may dominate the data. Linear Mixed Methods and Support Vector Machines were used to estimate player fitness from available covariates at times when explicit measures of fitness are unavailable. Using data provided by a professional rugby club, a case study was used to illustrate the application and value of these models. Both models performed well with R^2 values ranging from 60% to 85%, demonstrating that the models largely captured the biases introduced by individual players

Detection and removal of disturbance trends in tree-ring series for dendroclimatology

The authors thank The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland for providing funding for Miloš Rydval’s Ph.D. The Scottish pine network expansion has been an ongoing task since 2006, and funding must be acknowledged to the following projects: EU project “Millennium” (017008-2), Leverhulme Trust project “RELiC: Reconstructing 8000 years of Environmental and Landscape change in the Cairngorms (F/00 268/BG)”, and the NERC project “SCOT2K: Reconstructing 2000 years of Scottish climate from tree rings (NE/K003097/1)”. Kevin J. Anchukaitis was also supported by a grant for the US National Science Foundation (ARC-0902051).Nonclimatic disturbance events are an integral element in the history of forests. Although the identification of the occurrence and duration of such events may help to understand environmental history and landscape change, from a dendroclimatic perspective, disturbance can obscure the climate signal in tree rings. However, existing detrending methods are unable to remove disturbance trends without affecting the retention of long-term climate trends. Here, we address this issue by using a novel method for the detection and removal of disturbance events in tree-ring width data to assess their spatiotemporal occurrence in a network of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees from Scotland. Disturbance trends “superimposed” on the tree-ring record are removed before detrending and the climate signals in the precorrection and postcorrection chronologies are evaluated using regional climate data, proxy system model simulations, and maximum latewood density (MXD) data. Analysis of subregional chronologies from the West Highlands and the Cairngorms in the east reveals a higher intensity and more systematic disturbance history in the western subregion, likely a result of extensive timber exploitation. The method improves the climate signal in the two subregional chronologies, particularly in the more disturbed western sites. Our application of this method demonstrates that it is possible to minimise the effects of disturbance in tree-ring width chronologies to enhance the climate signal.PostprintPeer reviewe

A preliminary study into the use of tree-ring and foliar geochemistry as bio-indicators for vehicular NOx pollution in Malta

Duncan V. Mifsud is the grateful recipient of an Endeavour Scholarship (Republic of Malta). The Endeavour Scholarship Scheme is part-financed by the European Union – European Social Fund (ESF): Operational Programme II – Cohesion Policy 2014-20.Emissions from traffic over the past few decades have become a significant source of air pollution. Among the pollutants emitted are nitrogen oxides (NOx), exposure to which can be detrimental to public health. Recent studies have shown that nitrogen (N) stable isotope ratios in tree-rings and foliage express a fingerprint of their major N source, making them appropriate for bio-monitoring purposes. In this study, we have applied this proxy to Aleppo pines (Pinus halepensis) at three distances from one of the busiest roads in Malta, a country known to suffer from intense traffic pollution. Our results showed that N and organic carbon (C) stable isotope ratios in tree-rings do not vary over the period 1980–2018 at any of the investigated sites; however, statistically significant spatial trends were apparent in both tree-rings and foliage. The roadside and transitional sites exhibited more positive δ15N and more negative δ13C values compared to those at a rural control site. This is likely due to the incorporation of 15N-enriched NOx and 13C-depleted CO2 from traffic pollution. Sampled top-soil also exhibited the δ15N trend. Our results constitute the first known application of dendrogeochemistry to atmospheric pollution monitoring in Malta.PostprintPeer reviewe

A definition and standardised terminology for Blue Intensity from Conifers

RW acknowledges funding from NSF/NERC project (NE/W007223/1) – Understanding Trans-Hemispheric Modes of Climate Variability: A Novel Tree-Ring Data Transect spanning the Himalaya to the Southern Ocean. KS and JB were supported by the Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (grant no. 2019-01482) and the Stiftelsen Margit Althins stipendiefond (GS2021-0023).The published literature of the past 20 years expresses inconsistent terminology for the Blue Intensity (BI) method that could lead to confusion in analysis and interpretation. In this technical note we propose a standard terminology based around the prevalent use of BI for the variant that is positively correlated with wood density derived from X-ray and equivalent wood anatomical techniques. We highlight significant practical advantages of this standard terminology for data analysis, scientific interpretations as well as archiving, and provide some cautionary examples that could occur if not adhering to this terminology. In future studies using BI, we recommend to explicitly clarify that the standard terminology is used with the following phrase: The BI data produced in this study is consistent with the ‘2024 BI standard terminology’.Peer reviewe

Coupled modes of North Atlantic Ocean-atmosphere variability and the onset of the Little Ice Age

This research was funded by grants from the US National Science Foundation P2C2 program (AGS-1501856, and AGS-1502224). BIC was supported by the NASA Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction program (NASA #80NSSC17K0265).Hydroclimate extremes in North America, Europe, and the Mediterranean are linked to ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Atlantic, but the limited length of the instrumental record prevents complete identification and characterization of these patterns of covariability especially at decadal to centennial timescales. Here we analyze the coupled patterns of drought variability on either side of the North Atlantic Ocean basin using independent climate field reconstructions spanning the last millennium in order to detect and attribute epochs of coherent basin-wide moisture anomalies to ocean and atmosphere processes. A leading mode of broad-scale moisture variability is characterized by distinct patterns of North Atlantic atmosphere circulation and sea surface temperatures. We infer a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and colder Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the middle of the 15th century, coincident with weaker solar irradiance and prior to strong volcanic forcing associated with the early Little Ice Age.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Contextual behavioural coaching: An evidence-based model for supporting behaviour change

As coaching psychology finds its feet, demands for evidence-based approaches are increasing both from inside and outside of the industry. There is an opportunity in the many evidence-based interventions in other areas of applied psychology that are of direct relevance to coaching psychology. However, there may too be risks associated with unprincipled eclecticism. Existing approaches that are gaining popularity in the coaching field such as Dialectic Behavioural Therapy and Mindfulness enjoy close affiliation with Contextual Behavioral Science (CBS). In this article, we provide a brief overview of CBS as a coherent philosophical, scientific, and practice framework for empirically supported coaching work. We review its evidence base, and its direct applicability to coaching by describing CBS’s most explicitly linked intervention – Acceptance and Commitment Therapy/Training (ACT). We highlight key strengths of ACT including: its great flexibility in regard of the kinds of client change it can support; the variety of materials and exercises available; and, the varied modes of delivery through which it has been shown to work. The article lays out guiding principles and provides a brief illustrative case study of Contextual Behavioural Coaching

A data assimilation approach to last millennium temperature field reconstruction using a limited high-sensitivity proxy network

The authors acknowledge support from the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA grants NA18OAR4310420 to KJA, NA18OAR4310426 to JEG and FZ, and NA18OAR4310422 to GJH). GJH also acknowledges support from the NSF through grant AGS–1702423. JMK was partially supported by NSF grant AGS-1803946. JET and JMK acknowledge support from NSF grant #AGS-1602301 and Heising655 Simons Foundation grant #2016-05.We use the Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development (NTREND) tree-ring database to examine the effects of using a small, highly-sensitive proxy network for paleotemperature data assimilation over the last millennium. We first evaluate our methods using pseudo-proxy experiments. These indicate that spatial assimilations using this network are skillful in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and improve on previous NTREND reconstructions based on Point-by-Point regression. We also find our method is sensitive to climate model biases when the number of sites becomes small. Based on these experiments, we then assimilate the real NTREND network. To quantify model prior uncertainty, we produce 10 separate reconstructions, each assimilating a different climate model. These reconstructions are most dissimilar prior to 1100 CE, when the network becomes sparse, but show greater consistency as the network grows. Temporal variability is also underestimated before 1100 CE. Our assimilation method produces spatial uncertainty estimates and these identify treeline North America and eastern Siberia as regions that would most benefit from development of new millennial-length temperature-sensitive tree-ring records. We compare our multi-model mean reconstruction to five existing paleo-temperature products to examine the range of reconstructed responses to radiative forcing. We find substantial differences in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of reconstructed responses to volcanic eruptions and in the transition between the Medieval epoch and Little Ice Age. These extant uncertainties call for the development of a paleoclimate reconstruction intercomparison framework for systematically examining the consequences of proxy network composition and reconstruction methodology and for continued expansion of tree-ring proxy networks.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Deceleration of one-dimensional mixing by discontinuous mappings

We present a computational study of a simple one-dimensional map with dynamics composed of stretching, permutations of equal sized cells, and diffusion. We observe that the combination of the aforementioned dynamics results in eigenmodes with long-time exponential decay rates. The decay rate of the eigenmodes is shown to be dependent on the choice of permutation and changes non-monotonically with the diffusion coefficient for many of the permutations. The global mixing rate of the map M in the limit of vanishing diffusivity approximates well the decay rates of the eigenmodes for small diffusivity, however this global mixing rate does not bound the rates for all values of the diffusion coefficient. This counter-intuitively predicts a deceleration in the asymptotic mixing rate with increasing diffusivity rate. The implication of the results on finite time mixing are discussed