Bayesian modeling of recombination events in bacterial populations

Background: We consider the discovery of recombinant segments jointly with their origins within multilocus DNA sequences from bacteria representing heterogeneous populations of fairly closely related species. The currently available methods for recombination detection capable of probabilistic characterization of uncertainty have a limited applicability in practice as the number of strains in a data set increases. Results: We introduce a Bayesian spatial structural model representing the continuum of origins over sites within the observed sequences, including a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty related to the origin of any particular site. To enable a statistically accurate and practically feasible approach to the analysis of large-scale data sets representing a single genus, we have developed a novel software tool (BRAT, Bayesian Recombination Tracker) implementing the model and the corresponding learning algorithm, which is capable of identifying the posterior optimal structure and to estimate the marginal posterior probabilities of putative origins over the sites. Conclusion: A multitude of challenging simulation scenarios and an analysis of real data from seven housekeeping genes of 120 strains of genus Burkholderia are used to illustrate the possibilities offered by our approach. The software is freely available for download at URL http://web.abo.fi/fak/ mnf//mate/jc/software/brat.html

Effect of natalizumab on disease progression in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (ASCEND). a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with an open-label extension

Background: Although several disease-modifying treatments are available for relapsing multiple sclerosis, treatment effects have been more modest in progressive multiple sclerosis and have been observed particularly in actively relapsing subgroups or those with lesion activity on imaging. We sought to assess whether natalizumab slows disease progression in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, independent of relapses. Methods: ASCEND was a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (part 1) with an optional 2 year open-label extension (part 2). Enrolled patients aged 18–58 years were natalizumab-naive and had secondary progressive multiple sclerosis for 2 years or more, disability progression unrelated to relapses in the previous year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of 3·0–6·5. In part 1, patients from 163 sites in 17 countries were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 300 mg intravenous natalizumab or placebo every 4 weeks for 2 years. Patients were stratified by site and by EDSS score (3·0–5·5 vs 6·0–6·5). Patients completing part 1 could enrol in part 2, in which all patients received natalizumab every 4 weeks until the end of the study. Throughout both parts, patients and staff were masked to the treatment received in part 1. The primary outcome in part 1 was the proportion of patients with sustained disability progression, assessed by one or more of three measures: the EDSS, Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), and 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT). The primary outcome in part 2 was the incidence of adverse events and serious adverse events. Efficacy and safety analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01416181. Findings: Between Sept 13, 2011, and July 16, 2015, 889 patients were randomly assigned (n=440 to the natalizumab group, n=449 to the placebo group). In part 1, 195 (44%) of 439 natalizumab-treated patients and 214 (48%) of 448 placebo-treated patients had confirmed disability progression (odds ratio [OR] 0·86; 95% CI 0·66–1·13; p=0·287). No treatment effect was observed on the EDSS (OR 1·06, 95% CI 0·74–1·53; nominal p=0·753) or the T25FW (0·98, 0·74–1·30; nominal p=0·914) components of the primary outcome. However, natalizumab treatment reduced 9HPT progression (OR 0·56, 95% CI 0·40–0·80; nominal p=0·001). In part 1, 100 (22%) placebo-treated and 90 (20%) natalizumab-treated patients had serious adverse events. In part 2, 291 natalizumab-continuing patients and 274 natalizumab-naive patients received natalizumab (median follow-up 160 weeks [range 108–221]). Serious adverse events occurred in 39 (13%) patients continuing natalizumab and in 24 (9%) patients initiating natalizumab. Two deaths occurred in part 1, neither of which was considered related to study treatment. No progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy occurred. Interpretation: Natalizumab treatment for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis did not reduce progression on the primary multicomponent disability endpoint in part 1, but it did reduce progression on its upper-limb component. Longer-term trials are needed to assess whether treatment of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis might produce benefits on additional disability components. Funding: Biogen

Development of Social Variation in Reproductive Schedules: A Study from an English Urban Area

Background: There is striking social variation in the timing of the onset of childbearing in contemporary England, with the mean age at first motherhood about 8 years earlier in the most deprived compared to the least deprived neighbourhoods. However, relatively little is known about how these social differences in reproductive schedule develop in childhood. Methodology/Principal Findings: We studied the development of differences in reproductive schedules, using a crosssectional survey over 1000 school students aged 9–15 in the metropolitan borough of North Tyneside. Students from more deprived neighbourhoods had earlier ideal ages for parenthood than those from more affluent ones, and these differences were fully apparent by age 11. We found evidence consistent with three mechanisms playing a role in maintaining the socioeconomic gradient. These were: vertical intergenerational transmission (students whose own parents were younger at their birth wanted children younger); oblique intergenerational transmission (students in neighbourhoods where parents were younger in general wanted children earlier); and low parental investment (students who did not feel emotionally supported by their own parents wanted children at a younger age). Conclusions/Significance: Our results shed some light on the proximate factors which may be involved in maintaining early childbearing in disadvantaged communities. They help understand why educational initiatives aimed at adolescents tend to have no effect, whereas improving the well-being of poor families with young children may do so. Our results also sugges

Using Population Genetic Theory and DNA Sequences for Species Detection and Identification in Asexual Organisms

It is widely agreed that species are fundamental units of biology, but there is little agreement on a definition of species or on an operational criterion for delimiting species that is applicable to all organisms.We focus on asexual eukaryotes as the simplest case for investigating species and speciation. We describe a model of speciation in asexual organisms based on basic principles of population and evolutionary genetics. The resulting species are independently evolving populations as described by the evolutionary species concept or the general lineage species concept. Based on this model, we describe a procedure for using gene sequences from small samples of individuals to assign them to the same or different species. Using this method of species delimitation, we demonstrate the existence of species as independent evolutionary units in seven groups of invertebrates, fungi, and protists that reproduce asexually most or all of the time.This wide evolutionary sampling establishes the general existence of species and speciation in asexual organisms. The method is well suited for measuring species diversity when phenotypic data are insufficient to distinguish species, or are not available, as in DNA barcoding and environmental sequencing. We argue that it is also widely applicable to sexual organisms

Evolution of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis over four decades: whole genome sequencing and dating analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from KwaZulu-Natal.

CAPRISA, 2015.Abstract available in pdf

Global urban environmental change drives adaptation in white clover

Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural clines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale