Density estimates for Canada lynx vary among estimation methods

Abstract Unbiased population density estimates are critical for ecological research and wildlife management but are often difficult to obtain. Researchers use a variety of sampling and statistical methods to generate estimates of density, but few studies have compared estimates across methods. During 2016–2017, we surveyed Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in southwestern Yukon Territory, Canada, using track transect counts, hair snares, camera traps, live traps, and Global Positioning System (GPS) collars. From these data, we estimated lynx density with two linearly scaled count methods, one spatial mark–recapture method, three spatial mark–resight methods, and one cumulative‐time method. We found up to fivefold variation in point density estimates despite adhering to method requirements and assumptions in a manner consistent with other studies. Our results highlight the dependency of density estimates on sampling process and model assumptions and demonstrate the value of careful and unbiased sampling design. Further research is needed to fully assess the accuracy and limitations of the many wildlife density estimation methods that are currently in use so that techniques can be appropriately applied to typical study systems and species

On the Dominance of Trivial Knots among SAPs on a Cubic Lattice

The knotting probability is defined by the probability with which an $N$-step self-avoiding polygon (SAP) with a fixed type of knot appears in the configuration space. We evaluate these probabilities for some knot types on a simple cubic lattice. For the trivial knot, we find that the knotting probability decays much slower for the SAP on the cubic lattice than for continuum models of the SAP as a function of $N$. In particular the characteristic length of the trivial knot that corresponds to a `half-life' of the knotting probability is estimated to be $2.5 \times 10^5$ on the cubic lattice.Comment: LaTeX2e, 21 pages, 8 figur

Self-avoiding walks crossing a square

We study a restricted class of self-avoiding walks (SAW) which start at the origin (0, 0), end at $(L, L)$, and are entirely contained in the square $[0, L] \times [0, L]$ on the square lattice ${\mathbb Z}^2$. The number of distinct walks is known to grow as $\lambda^{L^2+o(L^2)}$. We estimate $\lambda = 1.744550 \pm 0.000005$ as well as obtaining strict upper and lower bounds, $1.628 < \lambda < 1.782.$ We give exact results for the number of SAW of length $2L + 2K$ for $K = 0, 1, 2$ and asymptotic results for $K = o(L^{1/3})$. We also consider the model in which a weight or {\em fugacity} $x$ is associated with each step of the walk. This gives rise to a canonical model of a phase transition. For $x < 1/\mu$ the average length of a SAW grows as $L$, while for $x > 1/\mu$ it grows as $L^2$. Here $\mu$ is the growth constant of unconstrained SAW in ${\mathbb Z}^2$. For $x = 1/\mu$ we provide numerical evidence, but no proof, that the average walk length grows as $L^{4/3}$. We also consider Hamiltonian walks under the same restriction. They are known to grow as $\tau^{L^2+o(L^2)}$ on the same $L \times L$ lattice. We give precise estimates for $\tau$ as well as upper and lower bounds, and prove that $\tau < \lambda.$Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures. Paper updated and reorganised following refereein

How strong is the evidence for accelerated expansion?

We test the present expansion of the universe using supernova type Ia data without making any assumptions about the matter and energy content of the universe or about the parameterization of the deceleration parameter. We assume the cosmological principle to apply in a strict sense. The result strongly depends on the data set, the light-curve fitting method and the calibration of the absolute magnitude used for the test, indicating strong systematic errors. Nevertheless, in a spatially flat universe there is at least a 5 sigma evidence for acceleration which drops to 1.8 sigma in an open universe.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

Automatic Detection of User Abilities through the SmartAbility Framework

This paper presents a proposed smartphone application for the unique SmartAbility Framework that supports interaction with technology for people with reduced physical ability, through focusing on the actions that they can perform independently. The Framework is a culmination of knowledge obtained through previously conducted technology feasibility trials and controlled usability evaluations involving the user community. The Framework is an example of ability-based design that focuses on the abilities of users instead of their disabilities. The paper includes a summary of Versions 1 and 2 of the Framework, including the results of a two-phased validation approach, conducted at the UK Mobility Roadshow and via a focus group of domain experts. A holistic model developed by adapting the House of Quality (HoQ) matrix of the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) approach is also described. A systematic literature review of sensor technologies built into smart devices establishes the capabilities of sensors in the Android and iOS operating systems. The review defines a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria, as well as search terms used to elicit literature from online repositories. The key contribution is the mapping of ability-based sensor technologies onto the Framework, to enable the future implementation of a smartphone application. Through the exploitation of the SmartAbility application, the Framework will increase technology amongst people with reduced physical ability and provide a promotional tool for assistive technology manufacturers

2000-15 Taxes and Marriage: A Two-Sided Search Analysis

Fil: Chade, Héctor. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.Fil: Ventura, Gustavo. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina

Cosmological Backreaction from Perturbations

We reformulate the averaged Einstein equations in a form suitable for use with Newtonian gauge linear perturbation theory and track the size of the modifications to standard Robertson-Walker evolution on the largest scales as a function of redshift for both Einstein de-Sitter and Lambda CDM cosmologies. In both cases the effective energy density arising from linear perturbations is of the order of 10^-5 the matter density, as would be expected, with an effective equation of state w ~ -1/19. Employing a modified Halofit code to extend our results to quasilinear scales, we find that, while larger, the deviations from Robertson-Walker behaviour remain of the order of 10^-5.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures; replaced by version accepted by JCA

A Bayesian Approach to Estimate OJD Prevalence From Pooled Fecal Samples of Variable Pool Size

This paper describes a Bayesian approach to prevalence estimation based on pooled samples that accommodates variation in pool size and adjusts for test imperfection. A logistic model was developed for pooled fecal culture (PFC) sensitivity as a function of pool size and a logistic mixed model for ovine Johne’s disease (OJD) prevalence as a function of covariates that were found significant in a recent OJD risk factor study conducted in Australia. Available data on these factors and prior information about prevalence and sensitivity were incorporated into a Bayesian model to estimate OJD prevalence from PFC data. Overall, posterior cohort OJD prevalence was estimated to be 0.16 (range of prevalences across cohorts 0.002 to 0.72). The average prevalence was higher in wethers than ewes. PFC sensitivities for pool sizes 10, 30 and 50 were estimated to be 0.91 (95% probability intervals 0.80, 0.96), 0.85 (0.80, 0.90) and 0.77 (0.65, 0.88), respectively. Posterior specificity of PFC was almost perfect though based primarily on the prior. Results suggest the Bayesian model successfully estimated the animal-level prevalence after accounting for variable pool size and imperfect test parameters. The method can be easily adapted for other conditions and diseases where pooled samples are collected. WinBugs code for the article is available online. Key Words: Diagnostic test Mycobacterium Ovine Johne’s disease Paratuberculosis Prevalence Sensitivit

Cost-effectiveness of Lifestyle Africa: an adaptation of the diabetes prevention programme for delivery by community health workers in urban South Africa

Background Lifestyle Africa is an adapted version of the Diabetes Prevention Program designed for delivery by community health workers to socioeconomically disadvantaged populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Results from the Lifestyle Africa trial conducted in an under-resourced community in South Africa indicated that the programme had a significant effect on reducing haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Objective To estimate the cost of implementation and the cost-effectiveness (in cost per point reduction in HbA1c) of the Lifestyle Africa programme to inform decision-makers of the resources required and the value of this intervention. Methods Interviews were held with project administrators to identify the activities and resources required to implement the intervention. A direct-measure micro-costing approach was used to determine the number of units and unit cost for each resource. The incremental cost per one point improvement in HbA1c was calculated. Results The intervention equated to 71 United States dollars (USD) in implementation costs per participant and a 0.26 improvement in HbA1c per participant. Conclusions Lifestyle Africa reduced HbA1c for relatively little cost and holds promise for addressing chronic disease in LMIC. Decision-makers should consider the comparative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of this intervention when making resource allocation decisions