Threshold FlipThem:when the winner does not need to take all

We examine a FlipIt game in which there are multiple resources which a monolithic attacker is trying to compromise. This extension to FlipIt was considered in a paper in GameSec 2014, and was there called FlipThem. Our analysis of such a situation is focused on the situation where the attacker’s goal is to compromise a threshold of the resources. We use our game theoretic model to enable a defender to choose the correct configuration of resources (number of resources and the threshold) so as to ensure that it makes no sense for a rational adversary to try to attack the system. This selection is made on the basis of the relative costs of the attacker and the defender

A particle swarm optimization approach using adaptive entropy-based fitness quantification of expert knowledge for high-level, real-time cognitive robotic control

Abstract: High-level, real-time mission control of semi-autonomous robots, deployed in remote and dynamic environments, remains a challenge. Control models, learnt from a knowledgebase, quickly become obsolete when the environment or the knowledgebase changes. This research study introduces a cognitive reasoning process, to select the optimal action, using the most relevant knowledge from the knowledgebase, subject to observed evidence. The approach in this study introduces an adaptive entropy-based set-based particle swarm algorithm (AE-SPSO) and a novel, adaptive entropy-based fitness quantification (AEFQ) algorithm for evidence-based optimization of the knowledge. The performance of the AE-SPSO and AEFQ algorithms are experimentally evaluated with two unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) benchmark missions: (1) relocating the UAV to a charging station and (2) collecting and delivering a package. Performance is measured by inspecting the success and completeness of the mission and the accuracy of autonomous flight control. The results show that the AE-SPSO/AEFQ approach successfully finds the optimal state-transition for each mission task and that autonomous flight control is successfully achieved

The Contribution of Social Networks to the Health and Self-Management of Patients with Long-Term Conditions: A Longitudinal Study

Evidence for the effectiveness of patient education programmes in changing individual self-management behaviour is equivocal. More distal elements of personal social relationships and the availability of social capital at the community level may be key to the mobilisation of resources needed for long-term condition self-management to be effective. Aim: To determine how the social networks of people with long-term conditions (diabetes and heart disease) are associated with health-related outcomes and changes in outcomes over time. Methods: Patients with chronic heart disease (CHD) or diabetes (n = 300) randomly selected from the disease registers of 19 GP practices in the North West of England. Data on personal social networks collected using a postal questionnaire, alongside face-to-face interviewing. Follow-up at 12 months via postal questionnaire using a self-report grid for network members identified at baseline. Analysis: Multiple regression analysis of relationships between health status, self-management and health economics outcomes, and characteristics of patients’ social networks. Results: Findings indicated that: (1) social involvement with a wider variety of people and groups supports personal self-management and physical and mental well-being; (2) support work undertaken by personal networks expands in accordance with health needs helping people to cope with their condition; (3) network support substitutes for formal care and can produce substantial saving in traditional health service utilisation costs. Health service costs were significantly (p0.01) reduced for patients receiving greater levels of illness work through their networks. Conclusions: Support for self-management which achieves desirable policy outcomes should be construed less as an individualised set of actions and behaviour and more as a social network phenomenon. This study shows the need for a greater focus on harnessing and sustaining the capacity of networks and the importance of social involvement with community groups and resources for producing a more desirable and cost-effective way of supporting long term illness management

Independent Validation of an Existing Model Enables Prediction of Hearing Loss after Childhood Bacterial Meningitis

Objective: This study aimed external validation of a formerly developed prediction model identifying children at risk for hearing loss after bacterial meningitis (BM). Independent risk factors included in the model are: duration of symptoms prior to admission, petechiae, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) glucose level, Streptococcus pneumoniae and ataxia. Validation helps to evaluate whether the model has potential in clinical practice. Study design: 116 Dutch school-age BM survivors were included in the validation cohort and screened for sensorineural hearing loss (>25 dB). Risk factors were obtained from medical records. The model was applied to the validation cohort and its performance was compared with the development cohort. Validation was performed by application of the model on the validation cohort and by assessment of discrimination and goodness of fit. Calibration was evaluated by testing deviations in intercept and slope. Multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing values. Results: Risk factors were distributed equally between both cohorts. Discriminative ability (Area Under the Curve, AUC) of the model was 0.84 in the development and 0.78 in the validation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness of fit was not significant in the validation cohort, implying good fit concerning the similarity of expected and observed cases. There were no significant differences in calibration slope and intercept. Sensitivity and negative predicted value were high, while specificity and positive predicted value were low which is comparable with findings in the development cohort. Conclusions: Performance of the model remained good in the validation cohort. This prediction model might be used as a screening tool and can help to identify those children that need special attention and a long follow-up period or more frequent auditory testing

Probabilistic (logic) programming concepts

A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today, all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution mechanisms that they require and use these to position and survey state-of-the-art probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which have been considered for over 20 years

Equilibrium analysis in multi-echelon supply chain with multi-dimensional utilities of inertial players

In a supply chain, the importance of information elicitation from the supply chain players is vital to design supply chain network. The rationality and self-centredness of these players causes the information asymmetry in the supply chain and thus situation of conflict and non-participation of the players in the network design process. In such situations, it is required to analyse the supply chain players’ behaviour in order to explore potential for coordination through incentives. In this paper, a novel approach of social utility analysis is proposed to elicit the information for supply chain coordination among the supply chain players in a dyadic relationship – supplier and buyer. In principal, we consider a monopsony situation where buyer is a dominant player. With the objective of maximizing the social utility, efforts have been made to value behavioural issues in supply chain. On the other hand, the reluctance of player due to the information asymmetry is measured in the form of inertia – an offset to the supply chain profit. The suppliers’ behaviour is analysed with three distinct level of risk for two types of the product in procurement process. The useful insight from this paper is in supplier selection process where the reluctance of supplier offsets supply chain profit. The paper provides recommendations to supply chain managers for efficient decision-making ability in supplier selection process

Gender Differences in Myogenic Regulation along the Vascular Tree of the Gerbil Cochlea

Regulation of cochlear blood flow is critical for hearing due to its exquisite sensitivity to ischemia and oxidative stress. Many forms of hearing loss such as sensorineural hearing loss and presbyacusis may involve or be aggravated by blood flow disorders. Animal experiments and clinical outcomes further suggest that there is a gender preference in hearing loss, with males being more susceptible. Autoregulation of cochlear blood flow has been demonstrated in some animal models in vivo, suggesting that similar to the brain, blood vessels supplying the cochlea have the ability to control flow within normal limits, despite variations in systemic blood pressure. Here, we investigated myogenic regulation in the cochlear blood supply of the Mongolian gerbil, a widely used animal model in hearing research. The cochlear blood supply originates at the basilar artery, followed by the anterior inferior cerebellar artery, and inside the inner ear, by the spiral modiolar artery and the radiating arterioles that supply the capillary beds of the spiral ligament and stria vascularis. Arteries from male and female gerbils were isolated and pressurized using a concentric pipette system. Diameter changes in response to increasing luminal pressures were recorded by laser scanning microscopy. Our results show that cochlear vessels from male and female gerbils exhibit myogenic regulation but with important differences. Whereas in male gerbils, both spiral modiolar arteries and radiating arterioles exhibited pressure-dependent tone, in females, only radiating arterioles had this property. Male spiral modiolar arteries responded more to L-NNA than female spiral modiolar arteries, suggesting that NO-dependent mechanisms play a bigger role in the myogenic regulation of male than female gerbil cochlear vessels

Impact of short-term dietary modification on postprandial oxidative stress

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We have recently reported that short-term (21-day) dietary modification in accordance with a stringent vegan diet (i.e., a Daniel Fast) lowers blood lipids as well as biomarkers of oxidative stress. However, this work only involved measurements obtained in a fasted state. In the present study, we determined the postprandial response to a high-fat milkshake with regards to blood triglycerides (TAG), biomarkers of oxidative stress, and hemodynamic variables before and following a 21-day Daniel Fast.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-two subjects (10 men and 12 women; aged 35 ± 3 years) completed a 21-day Daniel Fast. To induce oxidative stress, a milkshake (fat = 0.8 g·kg^-1; carbohydrate = 1.0 g·kg^-1; protein = 0.25 g·kg^-1) was consumed by subjects on day one and day 22 in a rested and 12-hour fasted state. Before and at 2 and 4 h after consumption of the milkshake, heart rate (HR) and blood pressure were measured. Blood samples were also collected at these times and analyzed for TAG, malondialdehyde (MDA), hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP), nitrate/nitrite (NOx), and Trolox Equivalent Antioxidant Capacity (TEAC).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A time effect was noted for HR (<it>p </it>= 0.006), with values higher at 2 hr post intake of the milkshake as compared to pre intake (<it>p </it>< 0.05). Diastolic blood pressure was lower post fast as compared to pre fast (<it>p </it>= 0.02), and a trend for lower systolic blood pressure was noted (<it>p </it>= 0.07). Time effects were noted for TAG (<it>p </it>= 0.001), MDA (<it>p </it>< 0.0001), H₂O₂(<it>p </it>< 0.0001), AOPP (<it>p </it>< 0.0001), and TEAC (<it>p </it>< 0.0001); all concentrations were higher at 2 h and 4 h post intake compared to pre intake, except for TEAC, which was lower at these times (<it>p </it>< 0.05). A condition effect was noted for NOx (<it>p </it>= 0.02), which was higher post fast as compared to pre fast. No pre/post fast × time interactions were noted (<it>p </it>> 0.05), with the area under the curve from pre to post fast reduced only slightly for TAG (11%), MDA (11%), H₂O₂(8%), and AOPP (12%), with a 37% increase noted for NOx.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Partaking in a 21-day Daniel Fast does not result in a statistically significant reduction in postprandial oxidative stress. It is possible that a longer time course of adherence to the Daniel Fast eating plan may be needed to observe significant findings.</p

Expression of the Axonal Membrane Glycoprotein M6a Is Regulated by Chronic Stress

It has been repeatedly shown that chronic stress changes dendrites, spines and modulates expression of synaptic molecules. These effects all may impair information transfer between neurons. The present study shows that chronic stress also regulates expression of M6a, a glycoprotein which is localised in axonal membranes. We have previously demonstrated that M6a is a component of glutamatergic axons. The present data reveal that it is the splice variant M6a-Ib, not M6a-Ia, which is strongly expressed in the brain. Chronic stress in male rats (3 weeks daily restraint) has regional effects: quantitative in situ hybridization demonstrated that M6a-Ib mRNA in dentate gyrus granule neurons and in CA3 pyramidal neurons is downregulated, whereas M6a-Ib mRNA in the medial prefrontal cortex is upregulated by chronic stress. This is the first study showing that expression of an axonal membrane molecule is differentially affected by stress in a region-dependent manner. Therefore, one may speculate that diminished expression of the glycoprotein in the hippocampus leads to altered output in the corresponding cortical projection areas. Enhanced M6a-Ib expression in the medial prefrontal cortex (in areas prelimbic and infralimbic cortex) might be interpreted as a compensatory mechanism in response to changes in axonal projections from the hippocampus. Our findings provide evidence that in addition to alterations in dendrites and spines chronic stress also changes the integrity of axons and may thus impair information transfer even between distant brain regions

Lifted graphical models: a survey

Lifted graphical models provide a language for expressing dependencies between different types of entities, their attributes, and their diverse relations, as well as techniques for probabilistic reasoning in such multi-relational domains. In this survey, we review a general form for a lifted graphical model, a par-factor graph, and show how a number of existing statistical relational representations map to this formalism. We discuss inference algorithms, including lifted inference algorithms, that efficiently compute the answers to probabilistic queries over such models. We also review work in learning lifted graphical models from data. There is a growing need for statistical relational models (whether they go by that name or another), as we are inundated with data which is a mix of structured and unstructured, with entities and relations extracted in a noisy manner from text, and with the need to reason effectively with this data. We hope that this synthesis of ideas from many different research groups will provide an accessible starting point for new researchers in this expanding field