Earnings Management and the Long‐Run Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95683/1/0022-1082.00079.pd

Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion set of a function $f:\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$ above a given threshold, under a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is assumed to be known. In the industrial world, this corresponds to the problem of estimating a probability of failure of a system. When only an expensive-to-simulate model of the system is available, the budget for simulations is usually severely limited and therefore classical Monte Carlo methods ought to be avoided. One of the main contributions of this article is to derive SUR (stepwise uncertainty reduction) strategies from a Bayesian-theoretic formulation of the problem of estimating a probability of failure. These sequential strategies use a Gaussian process model of $f$ and aim at performing evaluations of $f$ as efficiently as possible to infer the value of the probability of failure. We compare these strategies to other strategies also based on a Gaussian process model for estimating a probability of failure.Comment: This is an author-generated postprint version. The published version is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Molecular cloning and transcriptional regulation of ompT , a ToxR-repressed gene in Vibrio cholerae

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72189/1/j.1365-2958.2000.01699.x.pd

Active Brownian Particles. From Individual to Collective Stochastic Dynamics

We review theoretical models of individual motility as well as collective dynamics and pattern formation of active particles. We focus on simple models of active dynamics with a particular emphasis on nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of such self-propelled entities in the framework of statistical mechanics. Examples of such active units in complex physico-chemical and biological systems are chemically powered nano-rods, localized patterns in reaction-diffusion system, motile cells or macroscopic animals. Based on the description of individual motion of point-like active particles by stochastic differential equations, we discuss different velocity-dependent friction functions, the impact of various types of fluctuations and calculate characteristic observables such as stationary velocity distributions or diffusion coefficients. Finally, we consider not only the free and confined individual active dynamics but also different types of interaction between active particles. The resulting collective dynamical behavior of large assemblies and aggregates of active units is discussed and an overview over some recent results on spatiotemporal pattern formation in such systems is given.Comment: 161 pages, Review, Eur Phys J Special-Topics, accepte

The differential diagnosis of chronic daily headaches: an algorithm-based approach

Chronic daily headaches (CDHs) refers to primary headaches that happen on at least 15 days per month, for 4 or more hours per day, for at least three consecutive months. The differential diagnosis of CDHs is challenging and should proceed in an orderly fashion. The approach begins with a search for “red flags” that suggest the possibility of a secondary headache. If secondary headaches that mimic CDHs are excluded, either on clinical grounds or through investigation, the next step is to classify the headaches based on the duration of attacks. If the attacks last less than 4 hours per day, a trigeminal autonomic cephalalgia (TAC) is likely. TACs include episodic and chronic cluster headache, episodic and chronic paroxysmal hemicrania, SUNCT, and hypnic headache. If the duration is ≥4 h, a CDH is likely and the differential diagnosis encompasses chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and hemicrania continua. The clinical approach to diagnosing CDH is the scope of this review

A Bayesian non-parametric clustering approach for semi-supervised Structural Health Monitoring

A key challenge in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is the lack of availability of datafrom a full range of changing operational and damage conditions, with which to train anidentification/classification algorithm. This paper presents a framework based onBayesian non-parametric clustering, in particular Dirichlet Process (DP) mixture models,for performing SHM tasks in a semi-supervised manner, including an online feature extrac-tion method. Previously, methods applied for SHM of structures in operation, such asbridges, have required at least a year’s worth of data before any inferences on performanceor structural condition can be made. The method introduced here avoids the need for train-ing data to be collected before inference can begin and increases in robustness as more dataare added online. The method is demonstrated on two datasets; one from a laboratory test,the other from a full scale test on civil infrastructure. Results show very good classificationaccuracy and the ability to incorporate information online (e.g. regarding environmentalchanges)

Observational estimates of radiative forcing due to land use change in southwest Australia

Radiative forcing associated with land use change is largely derived from global circulation models (GCM), and the accuracy of these estimates depends on the robustness of the vegetation characterization used in the GCMs. In this study, we use observations from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument on board the Terra satellite to report top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing values associated with clearing of native vegetation for agricultural purposes in southwest Australia. Over agricultural areas, observations show consistently higher shortwave fluxes at the TOA compared to native vegetation, especially during the time period between harvest and planting. Estimates using CERES observations show that over a specific area originally covered by native vegetation, replacement of half the area by croplands results in a diurnally averaged shortwave radiative forcing of approximately -7 W m-2. GCM-derived estimates for areas with 30% or more croplands range from - 1 to - 2 W m-2 compared to observational estimate of -4.2 W m-2, thus significantly underestimating radiative forcing due to land use change by a factor of 2 or more. Two potential reasons for this underestimation are incorrect specification of the multiyear land use change scenario and the inaccurate prescription of seasonal cycles of crops in GCMs

Effects of land use in Southwest Australia: 1. Observations of cumulus cloudiness and energy fluxes

The Southwest Australian region has large homogeneous tracts of differing vegetation types separated by a sharp transition called the vermin or bunny fence which runs for almost 750 km. Seasonal winter agriculture is found to the west of the fence, whereas to the east native perennial vegetation grows. Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 imagery are used to construct monthly cumulus cloud frequency of occurrence maps for the region 0800 to 1500 LT in hourly increments for 1999 and 2000. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery are used to retrieve regional values of surface temperature, albedo, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, fractional soil moisture availability, sensible and latent heat fluxes. High spatial resolution Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery are used to retrieve detailed values along the fence. MODIS imagery also is utilized to retrieve cloud optical thickness, droplet sizes, and liquid water paths. This study shows that higher soil moisture availability is found over agricultural areas during winter (September) and over native vegetation areas during summer (December). Latent heat fluxes are higher over native vegetation than over agricultural areas during summer, while sensible heat fluxes are lower. Cumulus clouds occur with higher frequency and have higher optical thicknesses, cloud liquid water contents, and effective radii over agricultural areas during the winter and over native perennial vegetation during the dry summer. This is due to higher latent heat fluxes and available energy over agriculture during winter and over native vegetation during summer. We conclude that land use differences result in differences in available soil moisture and surface energy fluxes, which in turn lead to the observed preferential enhancement of cumulus cloudiness and cumulus cloud properties

Earnings Management and the Underperformance of Seasoned Equity Offerings

Seasoned equity issuers can raise reported earnings by altering discretionary accounting accruals. We find that issuers who adjust discretionary current accruals to report higher net income prior to the o#ering have lower post-issue long-run abnormal stock returns and net income. Interestingly, the relation between discretionary current accruals and future returns (adjusted for firm size and book-to-market ratio) is stronger and more persistent for seasoned equity issuers than for non-issuers. The evidence is consistent with investors naively extrapolating pre-issue earnings without fully adjusting for the potential manipulation of reported earnings. # 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved