Forecasting GOES 15 >2 MeV electron fluxes from solar wind data and geomagnetic indices

The flux of > 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is used by space weather forecasters as a key indicator of enhanced risk of damage to spacecraft in low, medium or geosynchronous Earth orbits. We present a methodology that uses the amount of time a single input dataset (solar wind data or geomagnetic indices) exceeds a given threshold to produce deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the > 2 MeV flux at GEO exceeding 1000 or 10000 cm‐2 s‐1 sr‐1 within up to 10 days. By comparing our forecasts with measured fluxes from GOES 15 between 2014 and 2016, we determine the optimum forecast thresholds for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts by maximising the ROC and Brier Skill Scores respectively. The training dataset gives peak ROC scores of 0.71 to 0.87 and peak Brier Skill Scores of ‐0.03 to 0.32. Forecasts from AL give the highest skill scores for forecasts of up to 6‐days. AL, solar wind pressure or SYM‐H give the highest skill scores over 7‐10 days. Hit rates range over 56‐89% with false alarm rates of 11‐53%. Applied to 2012, 2013 and 2017, our best forecasts have hit rates of 56‐83% and false alarm rates of 10‐20%. Further tuning of the forecasts may improve these. Our hit rates are comparable to those from operational fluence forecasts, that incorporate fluence measurements, but our false alarm rates are higher. This proof‐of‐concept shows that the geosynchronous electron flux can be forecast with a degree of success without incorporating a persistence element into the forecasts

Solution of the Kwiecinski evolution equations for unintegrated parton distributions using the Mellin transform

The Kwiecinski equations for the QCD evolution of the unintegrated parton distributions in the transverse-coordinate space (b) are analyzed with the help of the Mellin-transform method. The equations are solved numerically in the general case, as well as in a small-b expansion which converges fast for b Lambda_QCD sufficiently small. We also discuss the asymptotic limit of large bQ and show that the distributions generated by the evolution decrease with b according to a power law. Numerical results are presented for the pion distributions with a simple valence-like initial condition at the low scale, following from chiral large-N_c quark models. We use two models: the Spectral Quark Model and the Nambu--Jona-Lasinio model. Formal aspects of the equations, such as the analytic form of the b-dependent anomalous dimensions, their analytic structure, as well as the limits of unintegrated parton densities at x -> 0, x -> 1, and at large b, are discussed in detail. The effect of spreading of the transverse momentum with the increasing scale is confirmed, with growing asymptotically as Q^2 alpha(Q^2). Approximate formulas for for each parton species is given, which may be used in practical applications.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, RevTe

The Polygenic and Monogenic Basis of Blood Traits and Diseases

Blood cells play essential roles in human health, underpinning physiological processes such as immunity, oxygen transport, and clotting, which when perturbed cause a significant global health burden. Here we integrate data from UK Biobank and a large-scale international collaborative effort, including data for 563,085 European ancestry participants, and discover 5,106 new genetic variants independently associated with 29 blood cell phenotypes covering a range of variation impacting hematopoiesis. We holistically characterize the genetic architecture of hematopoiesis, assess the relevance of the omnigenic model to blood cell phenotypes, delineate relevant hematopoietic cell states influenced by regulatory genetic variants and gene networks, identify novel splice-altering variants mediating the associations, and assess the polygenic prediction potential for blood traits and clinical disorders at the interface of complex and Mendelian genetics. These results show the power of large-scale blood cell trait GWAS to interrogate clinically meaningful variants across a wide allelic spectrum of human variation. Analysis of blood cell traits in the UK Biobank and other cohorts illuminates the full genetic architecture of hematopoietic phenotypes, with evidence supporting the omnigenic model for complex traits and linking polygenic burden with monogenic blood diseases

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (VT) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P < 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P < 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high VT and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications: LAS VEGAS - An observational study in 29 countries

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (V T) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg−1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P ˂ 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P ˂ 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high V T and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome.</p

Preliminary studies of charge carrier transport in mercuric iodide radiation detectors

Mercuric iodide single crystals have been grown by static and dynamic sublimation methods. Characteristics of contacts and detector capacitance have been studied by photon excitation methods. Gamma and x-ray spectrometry has been carried out with completed detectors showing resolutions comparable to the best results published to date. A measurement of hole trapping length has been made from the spectral shapes observed and has been found to be approximately 0.3 mm. Transient waveform analysis with alpha-particle excitation shows hole mobilities of approximately 3 cm/sup 2//V-sec for a highly purified crystal and 0.05 for an expected less pure crystal. Electron mobilities of 120 cm/sup 2// Vsec are observed. An attempt is made to explain the observed tansient waveforms in terms of a single dominant trap model, With only partial success. Due to the strongly excitonic character of the material, it is proposed that the unfamiliar observations made regarding transport properties with the HgI/sub 2/ detectors studied may be due to exciton dissociation under high electric fields, to long exciton lifetimes and to interactions between excitons and trapping centers in the material. (auth

Mechanisms underlying the efficacy of a rodent model of vertical sleeve gastrectomy — A focus on energy expenditure

Objective: Bariatric surgery remains the only effective and durable treatment option for morbid obesity. Vertical Sleeve Gastrectomy (VSG) is currently the most widely performed of these surgeries primarily because of its proven efficacy in generating rapid onset weight loss, improved glucose regulation and reduced mortality compared with other invasive procedures. VSG is associated with reduced appetite, however, the relative importance of energy expenditure to VSG-induced weight loss and changes in glucose regulation, particularly that in brown adipose tissue (BAT), remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of BAT thermogenesis in the efficacy of VSG in a rodent model. Methods: Diet-induced obese male Sprague–Dawley rats were either sham-operated, underwent VSG surgery or were pair-fed to the food consumed by the VSG group. Rats were also implanted with biotelemetry devices between the interscapular lobes of BAT to assess local changes in BAT temperature as a surrogate measure of thermogenic activity. Metabolic parameters including food intake, body weight and changes in body composition were assessed. To further elucidate the contribution of energy expenditure via BAT thermogenesis to VSG-induced weight loss, a separate cohort of chow-fed rats underwent complete excision of the interscapular BAT (iBAT lipectomy) or chemical denervation using 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA). To localize glucose uptake in specific tissues, an oral glucose tolerance test was combined with an intraperitoneal injection of 14C-2-deoxy-d-glucose (14C-2DG). Transneuronal viral tracing was used to identify 1) sensory neurons directed to the stomach or small intestine (H129-RFP) or 2) chains of polysynaptically linked neurons directed to BAT (PRV-GFP) in the same animals. Results: Following VSG, there was a rapid reduction in body weight that was associated with reduced food intake, elevated BAT temperature and improved glucose regulation. Rats that underwent VSG had elevated glucose uptake into BAT compared to sham operated animals as well as elevated gene markers related to increased BAT activity (Ucp1, Dio2, Cpt1b, Cox8b, Ppargc) and markers of increased browning of white fat (Ucp1, Dio2, Cited1, Tbx1, Tnfrs9). Both iBAT lipectomy and 6-OHDA treatment significantly attenuated the impact of VSG on changes in body weight and adiposity in chow-fed animals. In addition, surgical excision of iBAT following VSG significantly reversed VSG-mediated improvements in glucose tolerance, an effect that was independent of circulating insulin levels. Viral tracing studies highlighted a patent neural link between the gut and BAT that included groups of premotor BAT-directed neurons in the dorsal raphe and raphe pallidus. Conclusions: Collectively, these data support a role for BAT in mediating the metabolic sequelae following VSG surgery, particularly the improvement in glucose regulation, and highlight the need to better understand the contribution from this tissue in human patients