Distribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities

An assumption that pervades the current transportation system reliability assessment literature is that probability distributions of the sources of uncertainty are known explicitly. However, this distribution may be unavailable (inaccurate) in reality as we may have no (insufficient) data to calibrate the distribution. In this paper we relax this assumption and present a new method to assess travel time reliability that is distribution-free in the sense that the methodology only requires that the first N moments (where N is a user-specified positive integer) of the travel time to be known and that the travel times reside in a set of bounded and known intervals. Because of our modeling approach, all sources of uncertainty are automatically accounted for, as long as they are statistically independent. Instead of deriving exact probabilities on travel times exceeding certain thresholds via computationally intensive methods, we develop semi-analytical probability inequalities to quickly (i.e. within a fraction of a second) obtain upper bounds on the desired probability. Numerical experiments suggest that the inclusion of higher order moments can potentially significantly improve the bounds. The case study also demonstrates that the derived bounds are nontrivial for a large range of travel time values. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.postprin

Quantitative Approaches to Resilience in Transport Networks

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An experimental study of the Online Information Paradox: Does en-route information improve road network performance?

This study investigates the empirical presence of a theoretical transportation paradox, defined as the "Online Information Paradox" (OIP). The paradox suggests that, for certain road networks, the provision of online information deteriorate travel conditions for all users of that network relative to the situation where no online information is provided to users. The analytical presence of the paradox was derived for a specific network structure by using two equilibrium models, the first being the Expected User Equilibrium (EUE) solution (no information scenario) and the other being the User Equilibrium with Recourse (UER) solution (with information scenario). An incentivised computerised route choice game was designed using the concepts of experimental economics and administered in a controlled laboratory environment to investigate the physical presence of the paradox. Aggregate statistics of path flows and Total System Travel Costs (TSTC) were used to compare the experimental results with the theoretical findings. A total of 12 groups of 12 participants completed the experiment and the OIP and the occurrence of the OIP being significant was observed in 11 of the 12 cases. Though information increased travel costs for users on average, it reduced the volatility of travel costs experienced in the no information scenario indicating that information can achieve a more reliable system. Further replications of similar experiments and more importantly field based identification of the phenomena will force transport professionals to be aware of the emergence of the paradox. In addition, studies such as this emphasise the need for the adoption of adaptive traffic assignment techniques to appropriately model the acquisition of information on a road network

Modelling supplier selection and material purchasing for the construction supply chain in a fuzzy scenario-based environment

Mathematical relations between supplier capacities, the resulting material supply shortages, together with the impact of material delays on construction projects are not well defined. In response to this, this paper presents a novel multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that considers the selection of suitable suppliers, inventory management practices, order quantities and the possibility of splitting a material order as integrated decisions to be optimised. The trade-off between the overall procurement cost and the weighted lateness, a measure of material delay impacts, is optimised. Material prices, supplier capacities, and resulting delays are treated as fuzzy scenario-based parameters. The proposed model is tested on a numerical example and computation experiments validate the model performance. An extensive sensitivity analysis is carried out and results suggest that by considering high variations in uncertain supplier capacities, the model would generate lower procurement cost and show less significant delay impacts. Whereas greater variations in uncertain material prices cause the total procurement cost to grow 55%; greater variations in uncertain delay durations also drastically increase the weighted lateness by over 70%. This highlights the importance of having high quality estimates for uncertain parameters. Additionally, the analysis also indicates that a minimum overall satisfaction level of 0.9338 can be achieved depending on the model user's strategies, and the proposed scenario-adjusted problem outperforms problems modelled under deterministic market conditions. The major contribution of this paper lies in the development of a fuzzy scenario-based model to solve the supplier selection and material purchasing problem in construction supply chains

Acceptability of risk-stratified breast screening: Effect of the order of presenting risk and benefit information

OBJECTIVE: To test whether reduced-frequency risk-stratified breast screening would be perceived more favourably by transposing the order of information on benefits and risks. METHODS: After reading vignettes describing non-stratified three-yearly screening and a risk-stratified alternative with five-yearly invitations for women at low risk, 698 women completed an online survey. Participants were allocated at random to information on screening benefits followed by risks, or vice versa, and asked to state preferences for either screening system. Participants also rated perceived magnitude of screening benefits and risks, and breast cancer susceptibility. RESULTS: Binomial logistic regression did not find order effects on preferences (p = 0.533) or perceived benefits of screening (p = 0.780). Perceived screening risks were greater when risks were presented first (p < 0.0005). Greater perceived susceptibility was associated with lower proportions preferring risk-stratified screening (15% vs. 39% in highest and lowest groups; p = 0.002), as were greater perceived screening benefits (e.g. 13% vs. 45% in highest and lowest groups; p < 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: No information order effect on preferences was observed. Information order did affect screening risk perceptions. Efforts to improve perceptions may need to be more intensive than those tested. Women perceiving themselves as high risk or perceiving greater benefits of screening may be particularly averse to less frequent screening

Colposcopy attendance and deprivation: A retrospective analysis of 27 193 women in the NHS Cervical Screening Programme

This study is funded by a grant from the UK Department of Health (no. 106/0001). ED and NM are supported by the Policy Research Unit in Cancer Awareness, Screening, and Early Diagnosis. The Policy Research Unit receives funding for a research programme from the Department of Health Policy Research Programme. It is a collaboration between researchers from seven institutions (Queen Mary University of London, University College London, King’s College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Hull York Medical School, Durham University and Peninsula Medical School)

Testing active choice for screening practitioner's gender in endoscopy among disinclined women: An online experiment

OBJECTIVES: A large proportion of women have a preference for a same-gender endoscopy practitioner. We tested how information about practitioner gender affected intention to have bowel scope screening in a sample of women disinclined to have the test. METHODS: In an online experimental survey, women aged 35-54 living in England who did not intend to participate in bowel scope screening (N = 1060) were randomised to one of four experimental conditions: (1) control (practitioner's gender is unknown), (2) opposite-gender (male practitioner by default), (3) same gender (female practitioner by default), and (4) active choice (the patient could choose the gender of the practitioner). Intention was measured following the interventions. RESULTS: Of 1010 (95.3%) women who completed the survey, most were White-British (83.6%), and working (63.3%). Compared with control, both active choice and same-gender conditions increased intention among disinclined women (9.3% vs. 16.0% and 17.9%; OR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.07-3.20 and OR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.23-3.50). There were no differences in intention between the opposite-gender and control conditions (9.8% vs. 9.3%; OR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.60-1.90) or the active choice and same-gender conditions (16.0% vs. 17.9%: OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.55-1.46, using same gender as baseline). CONCLUSIONS: Offering disinclined women a same-gender practitioner, either by choice or default, increased subsequent intention, while an opposite gender default did not negatively affect intention. Reducing uncertainty about gender of practitioner could positively affect uptake in women, and should be tested in a randomised controlled trial

A Pair of Dopamine Neurons Target the D1-Like Dopamine Receptor DopR in the Central Complex to Promote Ethanol-Stimulated Locomotion in Drosophila

Dopamine is a mediator of the stimulant properties of drugs of abuse, including ethanol, in mammals and in the fruit fly Drosophila. The neural substrates for the stimulant actions of ethanol in flies are not known. We show that a subset of dopamine neurons and their targets, through the action of the D1-like dopamine receptor DopR, promote locomotor activation in response to acute ethanol exposure. A bilateral pair of dopaminergic neurons in the fly brain mediates the enhanced locomotor activity induced by ethanol exposure, and promotes locomotion when directly activated. These neurons project to the central complex ellipsoid body, a structure implicated in regulating motor behaviors. Ellipsoid body neurons are required for ethanol-induced locomotor activity and they express DopR. Elimination of DopR blunts the locomotor activating effects of ethanol, and this behavior can be restored by selective expression of DopR in the ellipsoid body. These data tie the activity of defined dopamine neurons to D1-like DopR-expressing neurons to form a neural circuit that governs acute responding to ethanol

Tumour necrosis factor-alpha expression in tumour islets confers a survival advantage in non-small cell lung cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role of TNFα in cancer is complex with both pro-tumourigenic and anti-tumourigenic roles proposed. We hypothesised that anatomical microlocalisation is critical for its function.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study used immunohistochemistry to investigate the expression of TNFα in the tumour islets and stroma with respect to survival in 133 patients with surgically resected NSCLC.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>TNFα expression was increased in the tumour islets of patients with above median survival (AMS) compared to those with below median survival (BMS)(p = 0.006), but similar in the stroma of both groups. Increasing tumour islet TNFα density was a favorable independent prognostic indicator (p = 0.048) while stromal TNFα density was an independent predictor of reduced survival (p = 0.007). Patients with high TNFα expression (upper tertile) had a significantly higher 5-year survival compared to patients in the lower tertile (43% versus 22%, p = 0.01). In patients with AMS, 100% of TNFα⁺cells were macrophages and mast cells, compared to only 28% in the islets and 50% in the stroma of BMS patients (p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The expression of TNFα in the tumour islets of patients with NSCLC is associated with improved survival suggesting a role in the host anti-tumour immunological response. The expression of TNFα by macrophages and mast cells is critical for this relationship.</p

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation