Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

International audienceThis paper reports preliminary results for a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time in an operational implementation of LEPS, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that form the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12-km horizontal resolution. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecasts, LEPS forecasts are compared to a full Brute Force (BF) ensemble. This ensemble is based on RAMS, has 36 km horizontal resolution and is generated by 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. LEPS and BF results are compared subjectively and by objective scores. Subjective analysis is based on precipitation and probability maps of case studies whereas objective analysis is made by deterministic and probabilistic scores. Scores and maps are calculated by comparing ensemble precipitation forecasts against reports from the Calabria regional raingauge network. Results show that LEPS provided better rainfall predictions than BF for all case studies selected. This strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria for these cases. To further explore the impact of local physiographic features on QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting), LEPS results are also compared with a 6-km horizontal resolution deterministic forecast. Due to local and mesoscale forcing, the high resolution forecast (Hi-Res) has better performance compared to the ensemble mean for rainfall thresholds larger than 10mm but it tends to overestimate precipitation for lower amounts. This yields larger false alarms that have a detrimental effect on objective scores for lower thresholds. To exploit the advantages of a probabilistic forecast compared to a deterministic one, the relation between the ECMWF-EPS 700 hPa geopotential height spread and LEPS performance is analyzed. Results are promising even if additional studies are required

Order and phase nucleation in nonequilibrium nanocomposite Fe-Pt thin films with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy

We report on the time evolution of mass transport upon annealing nonequilibrium Fe-Pt nanocomposite films, leading to nucleation of L1(0) chemically ordered phase. The nonequilibrium nanocomposite films were fabricated by applying Fe(+) ion implantation to epitaxial Pt films grown on (001) MgO substrates, yielding Fe nanoclusters embedded in a Pt matrix at a tailored penetration depth. Time-resolved x-ray diffraction studies were carried out using synchrotron radiation, allowing determination of the activation energy for nucleation of the FePt L1(0) phase within the segregated nanoclusters during annealing. The growth of the segregated L1(0) ordered phase was modeled using ideal grain-size law and found to be dominated by strain-driven surface nucleation. The activation energies were found to correlate with the nanocluster size. Magnetic characterization of selected annealed samples indicates perpendicular magnetic anisotropy with high coercive field coincident with high value of the chemical order parameter of the ordered phase within the magnetic nanoclusters

Key Lessons Learned from Moffitt's Molecular Tumor Board: The Clinical Genomics Action Committee Experience

The increasing practicality of genomic sequencing technology has led to its incorporation into routine clinical practice. Successful identification and targeting of driver genomic alterations that provide proliferative and survival advantages to tumor cells have led to approval and ongoing development of several targeted cancer therapies. Within many major cancer centers, molecular tumor boards are constituted to shepherd precision medicine into clinical practice

Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Mediterráneo Foundation. This operational system is run twice a day, and both runs have a 3-day forecast range. To carry out the verification of the model in this work, the information generated by the system has been broken into individual simulation days for a specific daily run of the model. Moreover, we have analysed the summer forecast period from 1 June to 31 August for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The results indicate good agreement between observed and simulated maximum temperatures, with RMSE in general near 2 °C both for coastal and inland stations. For this parameter, the model shows a negative bias around −1.5 °C in the coast, while the opposite trend is observed inland. In addition, RAMS also shows good results in forecasting minimum temperatures for coastal locations, with bias lower than 1 °C and RMSE below 2 °C. However, the model presents some difficulties for this parameter inland, where bias higher than 3 °C and RMSE of about 4 °C have been found. Besides, there is little difference in both temperatures forecasted within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining the forecast performance at least for three forecast days

Quantifying Photoinduced Polaronic Distortions in Inorganic Lead Halide Perovskites Nanocrystals

The development of next generation perovskite-based optoelectronic devices relies critically on the understanding of the interaction between charge carriers and the polar lattice in out-of-equilibrium conditions. While it has become increasingly evident for CsPbBr3 perovskites that the Pb-Br framework flexibility plays a key role in their light-activated functionality, the corresponding local structural rearrangement has not yet been unambiguously identified. In this work, we demonstrate that the photoinduced lattice changes in the system are due to a specific polaronic distortion, associated with the activation of a longitudinal optical phonon mode at 18 meV by electron-phonon coupling, and we quantify the associated structural changes with atomic-level precision. Key to this achievement is the combination of time-resolved and temperature-dependent studies at Br K-edge and Pb L3-edge X-ray absorption with refined ab-initio simulations, which fully account for the screened core-hole final state effects on the X-ray absorption spectra. From the temporal kinetics, we show that carrier recombination reversibly unlocks the structural deformation at both Br and Pb sites. The comparison with the temperature-dependent XAS results rules out thermal effects as the primary source of distortion of the Pb-Br bonding motif during photoexcitation. Our work provides a comprehensive description of the CsPbBr3 perovskites photophysics, offering novel insights on the light-induced response of the system and its exceptional optoelectronic properties.Comment: Main: 27 pages, 4 figures SI: 16 pages, 8 figure

DCMIP2016: a review of non-hydrostatic dynamical core design and intercomparison of participating models

Atmospheric dynamical cores are a fundamental component of global atmospheric modeling systems and are responsible for capturing the dynamical behavior of the Earth's atmosphere via numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations. These systems have existed in one form or another for over half of a century, with the earliest discretizations having now evolved into a complex ecosystem of algorithms and computational strategies. In essence, no two dynamical cores are alike, and their individual successes suggest that no perfect model exists. To better understand modern dynamical cores, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of 11 non-hydrostatic dynamical cores, drawn from modeling centers and groups that participated in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) workshop and summer school. This review includes a choice of model grid, variable placement, vertical coordinate, prognostic equations, temporal discretization, and the diffusion, stabilization, filters, and fixers employed by each syste

Antiferromagnetic Domains and Superconductivity in UPt3

We explore the response of an unconventional superconductor to spatially inhomogeneous antiferromagnetism (SIAFM). Symmetry allows the superconducting order parameter in the E-representation models for UPt3 to couple directly to the AFM order parameter. The Ginzburg-Landau equations for coupled superconductivity and SIAFM are solved numerically for two possible SIAFM configurations: (I) abutting antiferromagnetic domains of uniform size, and (II) quenched random disorder of `nanodomains' in a uniform AFM background. We discuss the contributions to the free energy, specific heat, and order parameter for these models. Neither model provides a satisfactory account of experiment, but results from the two models differ significantly. Our results demonstrate that the response of an E_{2u} superconductor to SIAFM is strongly dependent on the spatial dependence of AFM order; no conclusion can be drawn regarding the compatibility of E_{2u} superconductivity with UPt3 that is independent of assumptions on the spatial dependence of AFMComment: 12 pages, 13 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

A Community-Based Multicenter Trial of Pharmacokinetically Guided 5-Fluorouracil Dosing for Personalized Colorectal Cancer Therapy

Pharmacokinetically guided (PK-guided) versus body surface area-based 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) dosing results in higher response rates and better tolerability. A paucity of data exists on PK-guided 5-FU dosing in the community setting

Ultrafast terahertz-field-driven ionic response in ferroelectric BaTiO3

The dynamical processes associated with electric field manipulation of the polarization in a ferroelectric remain largely unknown but fundamentally determine the speed and functionality of ferroelectric materials and devices. Here we apply subpicosecond duration, single-cycle terahertz pulses as an ultrafast electric field bias to prototypical BaTiO[subscript 3] ferroelectric thin films with the atomic-scale response probed by femtosecond x-ray-scattering techniques. We show that electric fields applied perpendicular to the ferroelectric polarization drive large-amplitude displacements of the titanium atoms along the ferroelectric polarization axis, comparable to that of the built-in displacements associated with the intrinsic polarization and incoherent across unit cells. This effect is associated with a dynamic rotation of the ferroelectric polarization switching on and then off on picosecond time scales. These transient polarization modulations are followed by long-lived vibrational heating effects driven by resonant excitation of the ferroelectric soft mode, as reflected in changes in the c-axis tetragonality. The ultrafast structural characterization described here enables a direct comparison with first-principles-based molecular-dynamics simulations, with good agreement obtained