Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset

© 2015 Luo et al. For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease

Failure of dual radius hydroxyapatite-coated acetabular cups

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Many kind of hydroxyapatite-coated cups were used, with favorable results in short term studies; it was supposed that its use could improve osteointegration of the cup, enhancing thus stability and survivorship. The purpose of this study is to analyze the long term behavior of the hemispheric HA coated, Dual Radius Osteonics cup and to discuss the way of failure through the exam of the revised components and of both periacetabular and osteolysis tissue.</p> <p>Materials and Methods</p> <p>Between 1994 and 1997, at the Department of Orthopedic Sciences of the Insubria University, using the posterolateral approach, were implanted 276 Dual Radius Osteonics^®in 256 patients, with mean age of 63 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At a mean follow-up of 10 years (range 8–12 years), 183 cups in 165 patients, were available for clinical and radiographical evaluation. 22 Cups among the 183 were revised (11%). The cause of revision was aseptic loosening in 17 cases, septic loosening in one case, periprosthetic fracture in another case, osteolysis and polyethylene wear in two cases and, finally, recurrent dislocations in the last one. In the remaining patients, mean HHS increased from a preoperative value of 50,15 to a postoperative value of 92,69. The mean polyethylene wear was 1,25 mm (min. 0,08, max. 3,9 mm), with a mean annual wear of 0,17 mm. The mean acetabular migration on the two axis was 1,6 mm and 1,8 mm. Peri-acetabular osteolysis were recorded in 89% of the implants (163 cases). The cumulative survivorship (revision as endpoint) at the time was 88,9%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study confirms the bad behavior of this type of cup probably related to the design, to the method of HA fixation. The observations carried out on the revised cup confirm these hypotheses but did not clarify if the third body wear could be a further problem. Another interesting aspect is the high incidence of osteolysis, which are often asymptomatic becoming a problem for the surgeon as the patient refuses the possibility of a revision.</p

Sex-Differential Herbivory in Androdioecious Mercurialis annua

Males of plants with separate sexes are often more prone to attack by herbivores than females. A common explanation for this pattern is that individuals with a greater male function suffer more from herbivory because they grow more quickly, drawing more heavily on resources for growth that might otherwise be allocated to defence. Here, we test this ‘faster-sex’ hypothesis in a species in which males in fact grow more slowly than hermaphrodites, the wind-pollinated annual herb Mercurialis annua. We expected greater herbivory in the faster-growing hermaphrodites. In contrast, we found that males, the slower sex, were significantly more heavily eaten by snails than hermaphrodites. Our results thus reject the faster-sex hypothesis and point to the importance of a trade-off between defence and reproduction rather than growth

Actigraph Accelerometer-Defined Boundaries for Sedentary Behaviour and Physical Activity Intensities in 7 Year Old Children

Background: Accurate objective assessment of sedentary and physical activity behaviours during childhood is integral to the understanding of their relation to later health outcomes, as well as to documenting the frequency and distribution of physical activity within a population.Purpose: To calibrate the Actigraph GT1M accelerometer, using energy expenditure (EE) as the criterion measure, to define thresholds for sedentary behaviour and physical activity categories suitable for use in a large scale epidemiological study in young children.Methods: Accelerometer-based assessments of physical activity (counts per minute) were calibrated against EE measures (kcal.kg(-1).hr(-1)) obtained over a range of exercise intensities using a COSMED K4b(2) portable metabolic unit in 53 seven-year-old children. Children performed seven activities: lying down viewing television, sitting upright playing a computer game, slow walking, brisk walking, jogging, hopscotch and basketball. Threshold count values were established to identify sedentary behaviour and light, moderate and vigorous physical activity using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Results: EE was significantly associated with counts for all non-sedentary activities with the exception of jogging. Threshold values for accelerometer counts (counts. minute(-1)) were = 3841 for light, moderate and vigorous physical activity respectively. The area under the ROC curves for discrimination of sedentary behaviour and vigorous activity were 0.98. Boundaries for light and moderate physical activity were less well defined (0.61 and 0.60 respectively). Sensitivity and specificity were higher for sedentary (99% and 97%) and vigorous (95% and 91%) than for light (60% and 83%) and moderate (61% and 76%) thresholds.Conclusion: The accelerometer cut points established in this study can be used to classify sedentary behaviour and to distinguish between light, moderate and vigorous physical activity in children of this age

Peripheral Effects of FAAH Deficiency on Fuel and Energy Homeostasis: Role of Dysregulated Lysine Acetylation

FAAH (fatty acid amide hydrolase), primarily expressed in the liver, hydrolyzes the endocannabinoids fatty acid ethanolamides (FAA). Human FAAH gene mutations are associated with increased body weight and obesity. In our present study, using targeted metabolite and lipid profiling, and new global acetylome profiling methodologies, we examined the role of the liver on fuel and energy homeostasis in whole body FAAH(-/-) mice.FAAH(-/-) mice exhibit altered energy homeostasis demonstrated by decreased oxygen consumption (Indirect calorimetry). FAAH(-/-) mice are hyperinsulinemic and have adipose, skeletal and hepatic insulin resistance as indicated by stable isotope phenotyping (SIPHEN). Fed state skeletal muscle and liver triglyceride levels was increased 2-3 fold, while glycogen was decreased 42% and 57% respectively. Hepatic cholesterol synthesis was decreased 22% in FAAH(-/-) mice. Dysregulated hepatic FAAH(-/-) lysine acetylation was consistent with their metabolite profiling. Fasted to fed increases in hepatic FAAH(-/-) acetyl-CoA (85%, p<0.01) corresponded to similar increases in citrate levels (45%). Altered FAAH(-/-) mitochondrial malate dehydrogenase (MDH2) acetylation, which can affect the malate aspartate shuttle, was consistent with our observation of a 25% decrease in fed malate and aspartate levels. Decreased fasted but not fed dihydroxyacetone-P and glycerol-3-P levels in FAAH(-/-) mice was consistent with a compensating contribution from decreased acetylation of fed FAAH(-/-) aldolase B. Fed FAAH(-/-) alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) acetylation was also decreased.Whole body FAAH deletion contributes to a pre-diabetic phenotype by mechanisms resulting in impairment of hepatic glucose and lipid metabolism. FAAH(-/-) mice had altered hepatic lysine acetylation, the pattern sharing similarities with acetylation changes reported with chronic alcohol treatment. Dysregulated hepatic lysine acetylation seen with impaired FAA hydrolysis could support the liver's role in fostering the pre-diabetic state, and may reflect part of the mechanism underlying the hepatic effects of endocannabinoids in alcoholic liver disease mouse models

Identifying the Age Cohort Responsible for Transmission in a Natural Outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica

Identifying the major routes of disease transmission and reservoirs of infection are needed to increase our understanding of disease dynamics and improve disease control. Despite this, transmission events are rarely observed directly. Here we had the unique opportunity to study natural transmission of Bordetella bronchiseptica – a directly transmitted respiratory pathogen with a wide mammalian host range, including sporadic infection of humans – within a commercial rabbitry to evaluate the relative effects of sex and age on the transmission dynamics therein. We did this by developing an a priori set of hypotheses outlining how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We discriminated between these hypotheses by using force-of-infection estimates coupled with random effects binomial regression analysis of B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data from within our rabbit population. Force-of-infection analysis allowed us to quantify the apparent prevalence of B. bronchiseptica while correcting for age structure. To determine whether transmission is largely within social groups (in this case litter), or from an external group, we used random-effect binomial regression to evaluate the importance of social mixing in disease spread. Between these two approaches our results support young weanlings – as opposed to, for example, breeder or maternal cohorts – as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission. Thus age-prevalence data, which is relatively easy to gather in clinical or agricultural settings, can be used to evaluate contact patterns and infer the likely age-cohort responsible for transmission of directly transmitted infections. These insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective long-term disease control

At the bottom of the differential diagnosis list: unusual causes of pediatric hypertension

Hypertension affects 1–5% of children and adolescents, and the incidence has been increasing in association with obesity. However, secondary causes of hypertension such as renal parenchymal diseases, congenital abnormalities and renovascular disorders still remain the leading cause of pediatric hypertension, particularly in children under 12 years old. Other less common causes of hypertension in children and adolescents, including immobilization, burns, illicit and prescription drugs, dietary supplements, genetic disorders, and tumors will be addressed in this review

Dynamic assembly of ribbon synapses and circuit maintenance in a vertebrate sensory system

Ribbon synapses transmit information in sensory systems, but their development is not well understood. To test the hypothesis that ribbon assembly stabilizes nascent synapses, we performed simultaneous time-lapse imaging of fluorescently-tagged ribbons in retinal cone bipolar cells (BCs) and postsynaptic densities (PSD95-FP) of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). Ribbons and PSD95-FP clusters were more stable when these components colocalized at synapses. However, synapse density on ON-alpha RGCs was unchanged in mice lacking ribbons (ribeye knockout). Wildtype BCs make both ribbon-containing and ribbon-free synapses with these GCs even at maturity. Ribbon assembly and cone BC-RGC synapse maintenance are thus regulated independently. Despite the absence of synaptic ribbons, RGCs continued to respond robustly to light stimuli, although quantitative examination of the responses revealed reduced frequency and contrast sensitivity

Integrative genomic analysis implicates limited peripheral adipose storage capacity in the pathogenesis of human insulin resistance.

Insulin resistance is a key mediator of obesity-related cardiometabolic disease, yet the mechanisms underlying this link remain obscure. Using an integrative genomic approach, we identify 53 genomic regions associated with insulin resistance phenotypes (higher fasting insulin levels adjusted for BMI, lower HDL cholesterol levels and higher triglyceride levels) and provide evidence that their link with higher cardiometabolic risk is underpinned by an association with lower adipose mass in peripheral compartments. Using these 53 loci, we show a polygenic contribution to familial partial lipodystrophy type 1, a severe form of insulin resistance, and highlight shared molecular mechanisms in common/mild and rare/severe insulin resistance. Population-level genetic analyses combined with experiments in cellular models implicate CCDC92, DNAH10 and L3MBTL3 as previously unrecognized molecules influencing adipocyte differentiation. Our findings support the notion that limited storage capacity of peripheral adipose tissue is an important etiological component in insulin-resistant cardiometabolic disease and highlight genes and mechanisms underpinning this link.This study was funded by the UK Medical Research Council through grants MC_UU_12015/1, MC_PC_13046, MC_PC_13048 and MR/L00002/1. This work was supported by the MRC Metabolic Diseases Unit (MC_UU_12012/5) and the Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centre and EU/EFPIA Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (EMIF grant 115372). Funding for the InterAct project was provided by the EU FP6 program (grant LSHM_CT_2006_037197). This work was funded, in part, through an EFSD Rising Star award to R.A.S. supported by Novo Nordisk. D.B.S. is supported by Wellcome Trust grant 107064. M.I.M. is a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator and is supported by the following grants from the Wellcome Trust: 090532 and 098381. M.v.d.B. is supported by a Novo Nordisk postdoctoral fellowship run in partnership with the University of Oxford. I.B. is supported by Wellcome Trust grant WT098051. S.O'R. acknowledges funding from the Wellcome Trust (Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award 095515/Z/11/Z and Wellcome Trust Strategic Award 100574/Z/12/Z)