Simple study designs in ecology produce inaccurate estimates of biodiversity responses

Monitoring the impacts of anthropogenic threats and interventions to mitigate these threats is key to understanding how to best conserve biodiversity. Ecologists use many different study designs to monitor such impacts. Simpler designs lacking controls (e.g. Before-After (BA) and After) or pre-impact data (e.g. Control-Impact (CI)) are considered to be less robust than more complex designs (e.g. Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) or Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs)). However, we lack quantitative estimates of how much less accurate simpler study designs are in ecology. Understanding this could help prioritise research and weight studies by their design’s accuracy in meta-analysis and evidence assessment. 2. We compared how accurately five study designs estimated the true effect of a simulated environmental impact that caused a step-change response in a population’s density. We derived empirical estimates of several simulation parameters from 47 ecological datasets to ensure our simulations were realistic. We measured design performance by determining the percentage of simulations where: (i) the true effect fell within the 95% Confidence Intervals of effect size estimates, and (ii) each design correctly estimated the true effect’s direction and magnitude. We also considered how sample size affected their performance. 3. We demonstrated that BACI designs performed: 1.3-1.8 times better than RCTs; 2.9-4.2 times vs BA; 3.2-4.6 times vs CI; and 7.1-10.1 times vs After designs (depending on sample size), when correctly estimating true effect’s direction and magnitude to within ±30%. Although BACI designs suffered from low power at small sample sizes, they outperformed other designs for almost all performance measures. Increasing sample size improved BACI design accuracy but only increased the precision of simpler designs around biased estimates. 4. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that more investment in more robust designs is needed in ecology since inferences from simpler designs, even with large sample sizes may be misleading. Facilitating this requires longer-term funding and stronger research-practice partnerships. We also propose ‘accuracy weights’ and demonstrate how they can weight studies in three recent meta-analyses by accounting for study design and sample size. We hope these help decision-makers and meta-analysts better account for study design when assessing evidence

Poor availability of context-specific evidence hampers decision-making in conservation

Evidence-based conservation relies on reliable and relevant evidence. Practitioners often prefer locally relevant studies whose results are more likely to be transferable to the context of planned conservation interventions. To quantify the availability of relevant evidence for amphibian and bird conservation we reviewed Conservation Evidence, a database of quantitative tests of conservation interventions. Studies were geographically clustered, and few locally conducted studies were found in Western sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, South East Asia, and Eastern South America. Globally there were extremely low densities of studies per intervention - fewer than one study within 2000 km of a given location. The availability of relevant evidence was extremely low when we restricted studies to those studying biomes or taxonomic orders containing high percentages of threatened species, compared to the most frequently studied biomes and taxonomic orders. Further constraining the evidence by study design showed that only 17–20% of amphibian and bird studies used reliable designs. Our results highlight the paucity of evidence on the effectiveness of conservation interventions, and the disparity in evidence for local contexts that are frequently studied and those where conservation needs are greatest. Addressing the serious global shortfall in context-specific evidence requires a step change in the frequency of testing conservation interventions, greater use of reliable study designs and standardized metrics, and methodological advances to analyze patchy evidence bases

Antibodies to the Mr 64,000 (64K) protein in islet cell antibody positive non-diabetic individuals indicate high risk for impaired Beta-cell function

A prospective study of a normal childhood population identified 44 islet cell antibody positive individuals. These subjects were typed for HLA DR and DQ alleles and investigated for the presence of antibodies to the Mr 64,000 (64K) islet cell antigen, complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and radiobinding insulin autoantibodies to determine their potency in detecting subjects with impaired Beta-cell function. At initial testing 64K antibodies were found in six of 44 islet cell antibody positive subjects (13.6%). The same sera were also positive for complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and five of them had insulin autoantibodies. During the follow-up at 18 months, islet cell antibodies remained detectable in 50% of the subjects studied. In all six cases who were originally positive, 64K antibodies were persistently detectable, whereas complement-fixing islet cell antibodies became negative in two of six and insulin autoantibodies in one of five individuals. HLA DR4 (p < 0.005) and absence of asparic acid (Asp) at position 57 of the HLA DQ chain (p < 0.05) were significantly increased in subjects with 64K antibodies compared with control subjects. Of 40 individuals tested in the intravenous glucose tolerance test, three had a first phase insulin response below the first percentile of normal control subjects. Two children developed Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus after 18 and 26 months, respectively. Each of these subjects was non-Asp homozygous and had persistent islet cell and 64K antibodies. We conclude that 64K antibodies, complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and insulin autoantibodies represent sensitive serological markers in assessing high risk for a progression to Type 1 diabetes in islet cell antibody positive non-diabetic individuals

Biohydrogenation of 22:6n-3 by Butyrivibrio proteoclasticus P18

Background: Rumen microbes metabolize 22:6n-3. However, pathways of 22:6n-3 biohydrogenation and ruminal microbes involved in this process are not known. In this study, we examine the ability of the well-known rumen biohydrogenating bacteria, Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens D1 and Butyrivibrio proteoclasticus P18, to hydrogenate 22:6n-3. Results: Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens D1 failed to hydrogenate 22:6n-3 (0.5 to 32 mu g/mL) in growth medium containing autoclaved ruminal fluid that either had or had not been centrifuged. Growth of B. fibrisolvens was delayed at the higher 22:6n-3 concentrations; however, total volatile fatty acid production was not affected. Butyrivibrio proteoclasticus P18 hydrogenated 22:6n-3 in growth medium containing autoclaved ruminal fluid that either had or had not been centrifuged. Biohydrogenation only started when volatile fatty acid production or growth of B. proteoclasticus P18 had been initiated, which might suggest that growth or metabolic activity is a prerequisite for the metabolism of 22:6n-3. The amount of 22:6n-3 hydrogenated was quantitatively recovered in several intermediate products eluting on the gas chromatogram between 22:6n-3 and 22:0. Formation of neither 22:0 nor 22:6 conjugated fatty acids was observed during 22:6n-3 metabolism. Extensive metabolism was observed at lower initial concentrations of 22:6n-3 (5, 10 and 20 mu g/mL) whereas increasing concentrations of 22:6n-3 (40 and 80 mu g/mL) inhibited its metabolism. Stearic acid formation (18:0) from 18:2n-6 by B. proteoclasticus P18 was retarded, but not completely inhibited, in the presence of 22:6n-3 and this effect was dependent on 22:6n-3 concentration. Conclusions: For the first time, our study identified ruminal bacteria with the ability to hydrogenate 22:6n-3. The gradual appearance of intermediates indicates that biohydrogenation of 22:6n-3 by B. proteoclasticus P18 occurs by pathways of isomerization and hydrogenation resulting in a variety of unsaturated 22 carbon fatty acids. During the simultaneous presence of 18:2n-6 and 22:6n-3, B. proteoclasticus P18 initiated 22:6n-3 metabolism before converting 18:1 isomers into 18:0

Crowdsourcing for translational research: analysis of biomarker expression using cancer microarrays

Background: Academic pathology suffers from an acute and growing lack of workforce resource. This especially impacts on translational elements of clinical trials, which can require detailed analysis of thousands of tissue samples. We tested whether crowdsourcing – enlisting help from the public – is a sufficiently accurate method to score such samples. Methods: We developed a novel online interface to train and test lay participants on cancer detection and immunohistochemistry scoring in tissue microarrays. Lay participants initially performed cancer detection on lung cancer images stained for CD8, and we measured how extending a basic tutorial by annotated example images and feedback-based training affected cancer detection accuracy. We then applied this tutorial to additional cancer types and immunohistochemistry markers – bladder/ki67, lung/EGFR, and oesophageal/CD8 – to establish accuracy compared with experts. Using this optimised tutorial, we then tested lay participants’ accuracy on immunohistochemistry scoring of lung/EGFR and bladder/p53 samples. Results: We observed that for cancer detection, annotated example images and feedback-based training both improved accuracy compared with a basic tutorial only. Using this optimised tutorial, we demonstrate highly accurate (>0.90 area under curve) detection of cancer in samples stained with nuclear, cytoplasmic and membrane cell markers. We also observed high Spearman correlations between lay participants and experts for immunohistochemistry scoring (0.91 (0.78, 0.96) and 0.97 (0.91, 0.99) for lung/EGFR and bladder/p53 samples, respectively). Conclusions: These results establish crowdsourcing as a promising method to screen large data sets for biomarkers in cancer pathology research across a range of cancers and immunohistochemical stains

Conducting retrospective impact analysis to inform a medical research charity’s funding strategies: The case of Asthma UK

© 2013 Hanney et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.BACKGROUND: Debate is intensifying about how to assess the full range of impacts from medical research. Complexity increases when assessing the diverse funding streams of funders such as Asthma UK, a charitable patient organisation supporting medical research to benefit people with asthma. This paper aims to describe the various impacts identified from a range of Asthma UK research, and explore how Asthma UK utilised the characteristics of successful funding approaches to inform future research strategies. METHODS: We adapted the Payback Framework, using it both in a survey and to help structure interviews, documentary analysis, and case studies. We sent surveys to 153 lead researchers of projects, plus 10 past research fellows, and also conducted 14 detailed case studies. These covered nine projects and two fellowships, in addition to the innovative case studies on the professorial chairs (funded since 1988) and the MRC-Asthma UK Centre in Allergic Mechanisms of Asthma (the ‘Centre’) which together facilitated a comprehensive analysis of the whole funding portfolio. We organised each case study to capture whatever academic and wider societal impacts (or payback) might have arisen given the diverse timescales, size of funding involved, and extent to which Asthma UK funding contributed to the impacts. RESULTS: Projects recorded an average of four peer-reviewed journal articles. Together the chairs reported over 500 papers. All streams of funding attracted follow-on funding. Each of the various categories of societal impacts arose from only a minority of individual projects and fellowships. Some of the research portfolio is influencing asthma-related clinical guidelines, and some contributing to product development. The latter includes potentially major breakthroughs in asthma therapies (in immunotherapy, and new inhaled drugs) trialled by university spin-out companies. Such research-informed guidelines and medicines can, in turn, contribute to health improvements. The role of the chairs and the pioneering collaborative Centre is shown as being particularly important. CONCLUSIONS: We systematically demonstrate that all types of Asthma UK’s research funding assessed are making impacts at different levels, but the main societal impacts from projects and fellowships come from a minority of those funded. Asthma UK used the study’s findings, especially in relation to the Centre, to inform research funding strategies to promote the achievement of impact.This study was funded by Asthma UK

Building a tool to overcome barriers in research-implementation spaces: The conservation evidence database

Conservation practitioners, policy-makers and researchers work within shared spaces with many shared goals. Improving the flow of information between conservation researchers, practitioners and policy-makers could lead to dramatic gains in the effectiveness of conservation practice. However, several barriers can hinder this transfer including lack of time, inaccessibility of evidence, the real or perceived irrelevance of scientific research to practical questions, and the politically motivated spread of disinformation. Conservation Evidence works to overcome these barriers by providing a freely-available database of summarized scientific evidence for the effects of conservation interventions on biodiversity. The methods used to build this database – a combination of discipline-wide literature searching and subject-wide evidence synthesis – have been developed over the last 15 years to address the challenges of synthesizing large volumes of evidence of varying quality and measured outcomes. Here, we describe the methods to enhance understanding of the database and how it should be used. We discuss how the database can help to expand multi-directional information transfers between research, practice and policy, which should improve the implementation of evidence-based conservation and, ultimately, achieve better outcomes for biodiversity

A practical conservation tool to combine diverse types of evidence for transparent evidence-based decision-making

Funder: Arcadia Fund; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012088Funder: MAVA Foundation; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013324Funder: The David and Claudia Harding FoundationFunder: University of Cambridge, Department of Zoology; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000735Making the reasoning and evidence behind conservation management decisions clear and transparent is a key challenge for the conservation community. Similarly, combining evidence from diverse sources (e.g., scientific and local knowledge) into decision-making is also difficult. Our group of conservation researchers and practitioners has co-produced an intuitive tool and template (Evidence-to-Decision [E2D] tool: www.evidence2decisiontool.com) to guide practitioners through a structured process to transparently document and report the evidence and reasoning behind decisions. The tool has three major steps: (1). Define the Decision Context; (2). Gather Evidence; and (3). Make an Evidence-Based Decision. In each step, practitioners enter information (e.g., from the scientific literature, practitioner knowledge and experience, and costs) to inform their decision-making and document their reasoning. The tool packages this information into a customized downloadable report (or is documented if using the offline template), which we hope can stimulate the exchange of information on decisions within and between organizations. By enabling practitioners to revisit how and why past decisions were made, and integrate diverse forms of evidence, we believe our open-access tool's template can help increase the transparency and quality of decision-making in conservation.William J. Sutherland and Harriet Downey were supported by Arcadia, The David and Claudia Harding Foundation, and MAVA. Alec P. Christie was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the Cambridge Earth System Science NERC DTP (NE/L002507/1) and The David and Claudia Harding Foundation. Thomas B. White was supported by the Balfour Studentship awarded by the Department of Zoology, Cambridge University

Larval Connectivity in an Effective Network of Marine Protected Areas

Acceptance of marine protected areas (MPAs) as fishery and conservation tools has been hampered by lack of direct evidence that MPAs successfully seed unprotected areas with larvae of targeted species. For the first time, we present direct evidence of large-scale population connectivity within an existing and effective network of MPAs. A new parentage analysis identified four parent-offspring pairs from a large, exploited population of the coral-reef fish Zebrasoma flavescens in Hawai'i, revealing larval dispersal distances ranging from 15 to 184 km. In two cases, successful dispersal was from an MPA to unprotected sites. Given high adult abundances, the documentation of any parent-offspring pairs demonstrates that ecologically-relevant larval connectivity between reefs is substantial. All offspring settled at sites to the north of where they were spawned. Satellite altimetry and oceanographic models from relevant time periods indicated a cyclonic eddy that created prevailing northward currents between sites where parents and offspring were found. These findings empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of MPAs as useful conservation and management tools and further highlight the importance of coupling oceanographic, genetic, and ecological data to predict, validate and quantify larval connectivity among marine populations

The effects of temperature and body mass on jump performance of the locust Locusta migratoria

Locusts jump by rapidly releasing energy from cuticular springs built into the hind femur that deform when the femur muscle contracts. This study is the first to examine the effect of temperature on jump energy at each life stage of any orthopteran. Ballistics and high-speed cinematography were used to quantify the energy, distance, and take-off angle of the jump at 15, 25, and 35°C in the locust Locusta migratoria. Allometric analysis across the five juvenile stages at 35°C reveals that jump distance (D; m) scales with body mass (M; g) according to the power equation D = 0.35M0.17±0.08 (95% CI), jump take-off angle (A; degrees) scales as A = 52.5M0.00±0.06, and jump energy (E; mJ per jump) scales as E = 1.91M1.14±0.09. Temperature has no significant effect on the exponent of these relationships, and only a modest effect on the elevation, with an overall Q10 of 1.08 for jump distance and 1.09 for jump energy. On average, adults jump 87% farther and with 74% more energy than predicted based on juvenile scaling data. The positive allometric scaling of jump distance and jump energy across the juvenile life stages is likely facilitated by the concomitant relative increase in the total length (Lf+t; mm) of the femur and tibia of the hind leg, Lf+t = 34.9M0.37±0.02. The weak temperature-dependence of jump performance can be traced to the maximum tension of the hind femur muscle and the energy storage capacity of the femur's cuticular springs. The disproportionately greater jump energy and jump distance of adults is associated with relatively longer (12%) legs and a relatively larger (11%) femur muscle cross-sectional area, which could allow more strain loading into the femur's cuticular springs. Augmented jump performance in volant adult locusts achieves the take-off velocity required to initiate flight.Edward P. Snelling, Christie L. Becker, Roger S. Seymou