Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Models for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality after Primary Liver Cancer Surgery

BACKGROUND: Since most published articles comparing the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) models and logistic regression (LR) models for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) outcomes used only a single dataset, the essential issue of internal validity (reproducibility) of the models has not been addressed. The study purposes to validate the use of ANN model for predicting in-hospital mortality in HCC surgery patients in Taiwan and to compare the predictive accuracy of ANN with that of LR model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients who underwent a HCC surgery during the period from 1998 to 2009 were included in the study. This study retrospectively compared 1,000 pairs of LR and ANN models based on initial clinical data for 22,926 HCC surgery patients. For each pair of ANN and LR models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and the relative importance of variables. Compared to the LR models, the ANN models had a better accuracy rate in 97.28% of cases, a better H-L statistic in 41.18% of cases, and a better AUROC curve in 84.67% of cases. Surgeon volume was the most influential (sensitive) parameter affecting in-hospital mortality followed by age and lengths of stay. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In comparison with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in the study was more accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data

Response and resilience of Spartina alterniflora to sudden dieback

We measured an array of biophysical and spectral variables to evaluate the response and recovery of Spartina alterniflora to a sudden dieback event in spring and summer 2004 within a low marsh in coastal Virginia, USA. S. alterniflora is a foundation species, whose loss decreases ecosystem services and potentiates ecosystem state change. Long-term records of the potential environmental drivers of dieback such as precipitation and tidal inundation did not evidence any particular anomalies, although Hurricane Isabel in fall 2003 may have been related to dieback. Transects were established across the interface between the dieback area and apparently healthy areas of marsh. Plant condition was classified based on ground cover within transects as dieback, intermediate and healthy. Numerous characteristics of S. alterniflora culms within each condition class were assessed including biomass, morphology and spectral attributes associated with photosynthetic pigments. Plants demonstrated evidence of stress in 2004 and 2005 beyond areas of obvious dieback and resilience at a multi-year scale. Resilience of the plants was evident in recovery of ground cover and biomass largely within 3 y, although a small remnant of dieback persisted for 8 y. Culms surviving within the dieback and areas of intermediate impact had modified morphological traits and spectral response that reflected stress. These morphometric and spectral differences among plant cover condition classes serve as guidelines for monitoring of dieback initiation, effects and subsequent recovery. Although a number of environmental and biotic parameters were assessed relative to causation, the reason for this particular dieback remains largely unknown, however

Coralline algal Barium as indicator for 20th century northwestern North Atlantic surface ocean freshwater variability

During the past decades climate and freshwater dynamics in the northwestern North Atlantic have undergone major changes. Large-scale freshening episodes, related to polar freshwater pulses, have had a strong influence on ocean variability in this climatically important region. However, little is known about variability before 1950, mainly due to the lack of long-term high-resolution marine proxy archives. Here we present the first multidecadal-length records of annually resolved Ba/Ca variations from Northwest Atlantic coralline algae. We observe positive relationships between algal Ba/Ca ratios from two Newfoundland sites and salinity observations back to 1950. Both records capture episodical multi-year freshening events during the 20th century. Variability in algal Ba/Ca is sensitive to freshwater-induced changes in upper ocean stratification, which affect the transport of cold, Ba-enriched deep waters onto the shelf (highly stratified equals less Ba/Ca). Algal Ba/Ca ratios therefore may serve as a new resource for reconstructing past surface ocean freshwater changes

Risk of second primary cancer in men with breast cancer

INTRODUCTION: A retrospective registry-based cohort study was conducted to examine the risk of second primary cancer following the occurrence of breast cancer in males. METHODS: Data obtained from the California Cancer Registry in the period 1988 to 2003 included 1,926 men aged 85 years and younger diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer. Person-year analysis was applied to determine the risk of second primary cancers after the occurrence of a first primary breast cancer. The effects of age, race, and time since the first breast cancer diagnosis were assessed. RESULTS: Of the 1,926 male breast cancer cases, 221 (11.5%) developed a second primary cancer. Men with first incidence of breast cancer have a significantly higher risk of second cancer (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01–1.32). The risk of a second site-specific cancer is elevated for breast cancer (SIR = 52.12, 95% CI = 31.83–80.49), cutaneous melanoma (SIR = 2.98, 95% CI = 1.63–5.00) and stomach cancer (SIR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.01–3.88). There is a general tendency towards higher risks of second malignancies among younger men compared to older men and the risk increased with the passage of time. CONCLUSION: Male breast cancer patients should be monitored carefully for the occurrence of second primary cancers, especially a second primary breast cancer

A curvilinear effect of height on reproductive success in human males

Human male height is associated with mate choice and intra-sexual competition, and therefore potentially with reproductive success. A literature review (n = 18) on the relationship between male height and reproductive success revealed a variety of relationships ranging from negative to curvilinear to positive. Some of the variation in results may stem from methodological issues, such as low power, including men in the sample who have not yet ended their reproductive career, or not controlling for important potential confounders (e.g. education and income). We investigated the associations between height, education, income and the number of surviving children in a large longitudinal sample of men (n = 3,578; Wisconsin Longitudinal Study), who likely had ended their reproductive careers (e.g. > 64 years). There was a curvilinear association between height and number of children, with men of average height attaining the highest reproductive success. This curvilinear relationship remained after controlling for education and income, which were associated with both reproductive success and height. Average height men also married at a younger age than shorter and taller men, and the effect of height diminished after controlling for this association. Thus, average height men partly achieved higher reproductive success by marrying at a younger age. On the basis of our literature review and our data, we conclude that men of average height most likely have higher reproductive success than either short or tall men

A retrospective study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

BACKGROUND: Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in wildlife and humans remain a cause of global concern, both in regard to traditional POPs, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and emerging POPs, such as the polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). To determine the time related concentrations, we analyzed human milk for these substances at three time points between 1987 and 1999. Polychlorobiphenylols (OH-PCBs), the dominating class of PCB metabolites, some of which are known to be strongly retained in human blood, were also included in the assessment. METHODS: We obtained milk from the Faroe Islands, where the population is exposed to POPs from their traditional diet (which may include pilot whale blubber). In addition to three pools, nine individual samples from the last time point were also analyzed. After cleanup, partitioning of neutral and acidic compounds, and separation of chemical classes, the analyses were carried out by gas chromatography and/or gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. RESULTS: Compared to other European populations, the human milk had high PCB concentrations, with pool concentrations of 2300 ng/g fat 1987, 1600 ng/g fat in 1994, and 1800 ng/g fat in 1999 (based on the sum of eleven major PCB congeners). The nine individual samples showed great variation in PCB concentrations. The OH-PCBs were present in trace amounts only, at levels of approximately 1% of the PCB concentrations. The PBDE concentrations showed a clear increase over time, and their concentrations in human milk from 1999 are among the highest reported so far from Europe, with results of individual samples ranging from 4.7 to 13 ng/g fat CONCLUSION: Although remote from pollution sources, the Faroe Islands show high concentrations of POPs in human milk, particularly PCBs, but also PBDEs. The PBDEs show increasing concentrations over time. The OH-PCB metabolites are poorly transferred to human milk, which likely is related to their acidic character

'MRI-negative PET-positive' temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and mesial TLE differ with quantitative MRI and PET: a case control study

Background: \u27MRI negative PET positive temporal lobe epilepsy\u27 represents a substantial minority of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Clinicopathological and qualitative imaging differences from mesial temporal lobe epilepsy are reported. We aimed to compare TLE with hippocampal sclerosis (HS+ve) and non lesional TLE without HS (HS-ve) on MRI, with respect to quantitative FDG-PET and MRI measures.Methods: 30 consecutive HS-ve patients with well-lateralised EEG were compared with 30 age- and sex-matched HS+ve patients with well-lateralised EEG. Cerebral, cortical lobar and hippocampal volumetric and co-registered FDG-PET metabolic analyses were performed.Results: There was no difference in whole brain, cerebral or cerebral cortical volumes. Both groups showed marginally smaller cerebral volumes ipsilateral to epileptogenic side (HS-ve 0.99, p = 0.02, HS+ve 0.98, p &lt; 0.001). In HS+ve, the ratio of epileptogenic cerebrum to whole brain volume was less (p = 0.02); the ratio of epileptogenic cerebral cortex to whole brain in the HS+ve group approached significance (p = 0.06). Relative volume deficits were seen in HS+ve in insular and temporal lobes. Both groups showed marked ipsilateral hypometabolism (p &lt; 0.001), most marked in temporal cortex. Mean hypointensity was more marked in epileptogenic-to-contralateral hippocampus in HS+ve (ratio: 0.86 vs 0.95, p &lt; 0.001). The mean FDG-PET ratio of ipsilateral to contralateral cerebral cortex however was low in both groups (ratio: HS-ve 0.97, p &lt; 0.0001; HS+ve 0.98, p = 0.003), and more marked in HS-ve across all lobes except insula.Conclusion: Overall, HS+ve patients showed more hippocampal, but also marginally more ipsilateral cerebral and cerebrocortical atrophy, greater ipsilateral hippocampal hypometabolism but similar ipsilateral cerebral cortical hypometabolism, confirming structural and functional differences between these groups.<br /

Elevated Incidence of Dental Caries in a Mouse Model of Cystic Fibrosis

Saliva bicarbonate constitutes the main buffering system which neutralizes the pH fall generated by the plaque bacteria during sugar metabolism. We found that the saliva pH is severely decreased in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis disease (CF). Given the close relationship between pH and caries development, we hypothesized that caries incidence might be elevated in the mouse CF model.). are enhanced at low pH values, we speculate that the decrease in the bicarbonate content and pH buffering of the saliva is at least partially responsible for the increased severity of lesions observed in the CF mouse

The Synthetic Plasmodium falciparum Circumsporozoite Peptide PfCS102 as a Malaria Vaccine Candidate: A Randomized Controlled Phase I Trial

BACKGROUND: Fully efficient vaccines against malaria pre-erythrocytic stage are still lacking. The objective of this dose/adjuvant-finding study was to evaluate the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of a vaccine candidate based on a peptide spanning the C-terminal region of Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (PfCS102) in malaria naive adults. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Thirty-six healthy malaria-naive adults were randomly distributed into three dose blocks (10, 30 and 100 microg) and vaccinated with PfCS102 in combination with either Montanide ISA 720 or GSK proprietary Adjuvant System AS02A at days 0, 60, and 180. Primary end-point (safety and reactogenicity) was based on the frequency of adverse events (AE) and of abnormal biological safety tests; secondary-end point (immunogenicity) on P. falciparum specific cell-mediated immunity and antibody response before and after immunization. The two adjuvant formulations were well tolerated and their safety profile was good. Most AEs were local and, when systemic, involved mainly fatigue and headache. Half the volunteers in AS02A groups experienced severe AEs (mainly erythema). After the third injection, 34 of 35 volunteers developed anti-PfCS102 and anti-sporozoite antibodies, and 28 of 35 demonstrated T-cell proliferative responses and IFN-gamma production. Five of 22 HLA-A2 and HLA-A3 volunteers displayed PfCS102 specific IFN-gamma secreting CD8(+) T cell responses. Responses were only marginally boosted after the 3(rd) vaccination and remained stable for 6 months. For both adjuvants, the dose of 10 microg was less immunogenic in comparison to 30 and 100 microg that induced similar responses. AS02A formulations with 30 microg or 100 microg PfCS102 induced about 10-folds higher antibody and IFN-gamma responses than Montanide formulations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: PfCS102 peptide was safe and highly immunogenic, allowing the design of more advanced trials to test its potential for protection. Two or three immunizations with a dose of 30 microg formulated with AS02A appeared the most appropriate choice for such studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Swissmedic.ch 2002 DR 1227