Mathematizing Darwin

Ernst Mayr called the first part of the evolutionary synthesis the ‘Fisherian synthesis’ on account of the dominant role played by R.A. Fisher in forging a mathematical theory of natural selection together with J.B.S. Haldane and Sewall Wright in the decade 1922–1932. It is here argued that Fisher’s contribution relied on a close reading of Darwin’s work to a much greater extent than did the contributions of Haldane and Wright, that it was synthetic in contrast to their analytic approach and that it was greatly influenced by his friendship with the Darwin family, particularly with Charles’s son Leonard

Evaluation of Microwave Steam Bags for the Decontamination of Filtering Facepiece Respirators

Reusing filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs) has been suggested as a strategy to conserve available supplies for home and healthcare environments during an influenza pandemic. For reuse to be possible, used FFRs must be decontaminated before redonning to reduce the risk of virus transmission; however, there are no approved methods for FFR decontamination. An effective method must reduce the microbial threat, maintain the function of the FFR, and present no residual chemical hazard. The method should be readily available, inexpensive and easily implemented by healthcare workers and the general public. Many of the general decontamination protocols used in healthcare and home settings are unable to address all of the desired qualities of an efficient FFR decontamination protocol. The goal of this study is to evaluate the use of two commercially available steam bags, marketed to the public for disinfecting infant feeding equipment, for FFR decontamination. The FFRs were decontaminated with microwave generated steam following the manufacturers' instructions then evaluated for water absorption and filtration efficiency for up to three steam exposures. Water absorption of the FFR was found to be model specific as FFRs constructed with hydrophilic materials absorbed more water. The steam had little effect on FFR performance as filtration efficiency of the treated FFRs remained above 95%. The decontamination efficacy of the steam bag was assessed using bacteriophage MS2 as a surrogate for a pathogenic virus. The tested steam bags were found to be 99.9% effective for inactivating MS2 on FFRs; however, more research is required to determine the effectiveness against respiratory pathogens

Long-term organic carbon preservation enhanced by iron and manganese.

The balance between degradation and preservation of sedimentary organic carbon (OC) is important for global carbon and oxygen cycles1. The relative importance of different mechanisms and environmental conditions contributing to marine sedimentary OC preservation, however, remains unclear2-8. Simple organic molecules can be geopolymerized into recalcitrant forms by means of the Maillard reaction5, although reaction kinetics at marine sedimentary temperatures are thought to be slow9,10. More recent work in terrestrial systems suggests that the reaction can be catalysed by manganese minerals11-13, but the potential for the promotion of geopolymerized OC formation at marine sedimentary temperatures is uncertain. Here we present incubation experiments and find that iron and manganese ions and minerals abiotically catalyse the Maillard reaction by up to two orders of magnitude at temperatures relevant to continental margins where most preservation occurs4. Furthermore, the chemical signature of the reaction products closely resembles dissolved and total OC found in continental margin sediments globally. With the aid of a pore-water model14, we estimate that iron- and manganese-catalysed transformation of simple organic molecules into complex macromolecules might generate on the order of approximately 4.1 Tg C yr-1 for preservation in marine sediments. In the context of perhaps only about 63 Tg C yr-1 variation in sedimentary organic preservation over the past 300 million years6, we propose that variable iron and manganese inputs to the ocean could exert a substantial but hitherto unexplored impact on global OC preservation over geological time

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force Consensus Proposal: Diagnostic approach to epilepsy in dogs

This article outlines the consensus proposal on diagnosis of epilepsy in dogs by the International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force. The aim of this consensus proposal is to improve consistency in the diagnosis of epilepsy in the clinical and research settings. The diagnostic approach to the patient presenting with a history of suspected epileptic seizures incorporates two fundamental steps: to establish if the events the animal is demonstrating truly represent epileptic seizures and if so, to identify their underlying cause. Differentiation of epileptic seizures from other non-epileptic episodic paroxysmal events can be challenging. Criteria that can be used to make this differentiation are presented in detail and discussed. Criteria for the diagnosis of idiopathic epilepsy (IE) are described in a three-tier system. Tier I confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on a history of two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures occurring at least 24 h apart, age at epileptic seizure onset of between six months and six years, unremarkable inter-ictal physical and neurological examination, and no significant abnormalities on minimum data base blood tests and urinalysis. Tier II confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and unremarkable fasting and post-prandial bile acids, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain (based on an epilepsy-specific brain MRI protocol) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis. Tier III confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and II and identification of electroencephalographic abnormalities characteristic for seizure disorders. The authors recommend performing MRI of the brain and routine CSF analysis, after exclusion of reactive seizures, in dogs with age at epileptic seizure onset 6 years, inter-ictal neurological abnormalities consistent with intracranial neurolocalisation, status epilepticus or cluster seizure at epileptic seizure onset, or a previous presumptive diagnosis of IE and drug-resistance with a single antiepileptic drug titrated to the highest tolerable dose

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

The emergence of modern statistics in agricultural science : Analysis of variance, experimental design and the reshaping of research at Rothamsted Experimental Station, 1919–1933

During the twentieth century statistical methods have transformed research in the experimental and social sciences. Qualitative evidence has largely been replaced by quantitative results and the tools of statistical inference have helped foster a new ideal of objectivity in scientific knowledge. The paper will investigate this transformation by considering the genesis of analysis of variance and experimental design, statistical methods nowadays taught in every elementary course of statistics for the experimental and social sciences. These methods were developed by the mathematician and geneticist R. A. Fisher during the 1920s, while he was working at Rothamsted Experimental Station, where agricultural research was in turn reshaped by Fisher’s methods. Analysis of variance and experimental design required new practices and instruments in field and laboratory research, and imposed a redistribution of expertise among statisticians, experimental scientists and the farm staff. On the other hand the use of statistical methods in agricultural science called for a systematization of information management and made computing an activity integral to the experimental research done at Rothamsted, permanently integrating the statisticians’ tools and expertise into the station research programme. Fisher’s statistical methods did not remain confined within agricultural research and by the end of the 1950s they had come to stay in psychology, sociology, education, chemistry, medicine, engineering, economics, quality control, just to mention a few of the disciplines which adopted them

Competition and Complementarity in Diffusion: The Case of Octane

The standard ontogenic (life-cycle) model of technological evolution can be characterized briefly as follows (Ayres, 1987): (1) a radical invention (birth) creates a new technology; (2) it is commercialized on the basis of performance and rapidly developed by a series of improvements and modifications (infancy); (3) it is successful enough in the marketplace to attract many variants and imitators who hope to exploit a growing market (adolescence); (4) the pace of technological change finally slows down enough to permit standardization and exploitation of economies of scale, and competition on the basis of price rather than performance (maturity); and finally a new and better technology supplants it (senescence)

Braving difficult choices alone: children's and adolescents' medical decision making.

OBJECTIVE: What role should minors play in making medical decisions? The authors examined children's and adolescents' desire to be involved in serious medical decisions and the emotional consequences associated with them. METHODS: Sixty-three children and 76 adolescents were presented with a cover story about a difficult medical choice. Participants were tested in one of four conditions: (1) own informed choice; (2) informed parents' choice to amputate; (3) informed parents' choice to continue a treatment; and (4) uninformed parents' choice to amputate. In a questionnaire, participants were asked about their choices, preference for autonomy, confidence, and emotional reactions when faced with a difficult hypothetical medical choice. RESULTS: Children and adolescents made different choices and participants, especially adolescents, preferred to make the difficult choice themselves, rather than having a parent make it. Children expressed fewer negative emotions than adolescents. Providing information about the alternatives did not affect participants' responses. CONCLUSIONS: Minors, especially adolescents, want to be responsible for their own medical decisions, even when the choice is a difficult one. For the adolescents, results suggest that the decision to be made, instead of the agent making the decision, is the main element influencing their emotional responses and decision confidence. For children, results suggest that they might be less able than adolescents to project how they would feel. The results, overall, draw attention to the need to further investigate how we can better involve minors in the medical decision-making process

The Astronomical Orientation of Ancient Greek Temples

Despite its appearing to be a simple question to answer, there has been no consensus as to whether or not the alignments of ancient Greek temples reflect astronomical intentions. Here I present the results of a survey of archaic and classical Greek temples in Sicily and compare them with temples in Greece. Using a binomial test I show strong evidence that there is a preference for solar orientations. I then speculate that differences in alignment patterns between Sicily and Greece reflect differing pressures in the expression of ethnic identity

Acupuncture, or non-directive counselling versus usual care for the treatment of depression: a pilot study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Depression is one of the most common reasons for consulting in primary care. Acupuncture is a popular complementary therapy choice for depression but its evidence base is poor with more robust high quality trials being required. More than half of depressed patients experience painful symptoms, with severe pain being associated with poor response to antidepressants. Acupuncture may have much to offer as an intervention for depression that also helps alleviate pain. Non-directive counselling is the most widely used psychological approach for depression in NHS settings, and provides a useful pragmatic comparison for acupuncture that would, according to our pre-trial qualitative research, be of high interest to doctors and patients.</p> <p>Methods and design</p> <p>The pilot study uses five arms and involves a pragmatic design. All patients will continue to receive usual care. Four groups of patients will be allocated to acupuncture, or non-directive counselling, in addition to usual GP care. The acupuncture and counselling arms will be further split into two groups to explore different treatment regimens. The primary outcome measure is the BDI II. Potentially eligible patients will be screened for depression using the PHQ-9, which is also a secondary outcome measure. Other secondary measures include the SF 36 bodily pain subscale, the CORE OM, the WBQ-12 and the EQ5D. Health economic data will be collected and measures of therapeutic engagement will be used to compare patient's views of therapists and GPs. The study will employ a fully randomised preference design with collection of data on patient preferences and prior expectations.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study has been implemented, and data are currently being analysed to inform the design of a full scale trial. Two practical operational issues that impacted on study implementation are discussed. Firstly, the challenge of recruiting depressed patients via GP consultation. Secondly, the problem of poor uptake and high attrition for counselling and acupuncture, which appeared to be associated with poor questionnaire return, and resulted in missing data. These problems may be relevant to other researchers working in the area of depression, or similar illnesses, where patients may lack motivation and energy to engage in research, or attend for treatment.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN 59267538)</p