Cosmological distance indicators

We review three distance measurement techniques beyond the local universe: (1) gravitational lens time delays, (2) baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and (3) HI intensity mapping. We describe the principles and theory behind each method, the ingredients needed for measuring such distances, the current observational results, and future prospects. Time delays from strongly lensed quasars currently provide constraints on $H_0$ with < 4% uncertainty, and with 1% within reach from ongoing surveys and efforts. Recent exciting discoveries of strongly lensed supernovae hold great promise for time-delay cosmography. BAO features have been detected in redshift surveys up to z <~ 0.8 with galaxies and z ~ 2 with Ly-$\alpha$ forest, providing precise distance measurements and $H_0$ with < 2% uncertainty in flat $\Lambda$CDM. Future BAO surveys will probe the distance scale with percent-level precision. HI intensity mapping has great potential to map BAO distances at z ~ 0.8 and beyond with precisions of a few percent. The next years ahead will be exciting as various cosmological probes reach 1% uncertainty in determining $H_0$, to assess the current tension in $H_0$ measurements that could indicate new physics.Comment: Review article accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews (Springer), 45 pages, 10 figures. Chapter of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Ag

A scalable analytical framework for spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood change: A sequence analysis approach

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. Spatio-temporal changes reflect the complexity and evolution of demographic and socio-economic processes. Changes in the spatial distribution of population and consumer demand at urban and rural areas are expected to trigger changes in future housing and infrastructure needs. This paper presents a scalable analytical framework for understanding spatio-temporal population change, using a sequence analysis approach. This paper uses gridded cell Census data for Great Britain from 1971 to 2011 with 10-year intervals, creating neighborhood typologies for each Census year. These typologies are then used to analyze transitions of grid cells between different types of neighborhoods and define representative trajectories of neighborhood change. The results reveal seven prevalent trajectories of neighborhood change across Great Britain, identifying neighborhoods which have experienced stable, upward and downward pathways through the national socioeconomic hierarchy over the last four decades

N-body simulations of gravitational dynamics

We describe the astrophysical and numerical basis of N-body simulations, both of collisional stellar systems (dense star clusters and galactic centres) and collisionless stellar dynamics (galaxies and large-scale structure). We explain and discuss the state-of-the-art algorithms used for these quite different regimes, attempt to give a fair critique, and point out possible directions of future improvement and development. We briefly touch upon the history of N-body simulations and their most important results.Comment: invited review (28 pages), to appear in European Physics Journal Plu

Toward an internally consistent astronomical distance scale

Accurate astronomical distance determination is crucial for all fields in astrophysics, from Galactic to cosmological scales. Despite, or perhaps because of, significant efforts to determine accurate distances, using a wide range of methods, tracers, and techniques, an internally consistent astronomical distance framework has not yet been established. We review current efforts to homogenize the Local Group's distance framework, with particular emphasis on the potential of RR Lyrae stars as distance indicators, and attempt to extend this in an internally consistent manner to cosmological distances. Calibration based on Type Ia supernovae and distance determinations based on gravitational lensing represent particularly promising approaches. We provide a positive outlook to improvements to the status quo expected from future surveys, missions, and facilities. Astronomical distance determination has clearly reached maturity and near-consistency.Comment: Review article, 59 pages (4 figures); Space Science Reviews, in press (chapter 8 of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Age

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme ERAMMP - Report-32: National Forest in Wales - Evidence Review

This review was commissioned by Welsh Government (WG) from the Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring and Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) to provide key evidence of potential benefits and disbenefits of woodland creation, woodland expansion and managing undermanaged woodland, to provide an evidence base to inform the development of a National Forest for Wales. During the commissioning process, WG emphasised that the evidence provided must reflect the collective views of the community by reviewing the literature in an objective way highlighting where evidence is contradictory or weak. Within the time available, evidence of causality of impacts, the likely timescales and magnitude of these impacts should be also be presented, for both positive and negative impacts of woodland expansion and management of undermanaged woodlands. This Evidence Pack should also build on the evidence put forward in the ERAMMP Sustainable Farm Scheme (SFS) (https://erammp.wales/en/resources) which included a range of assessments of the value of intervention measures which promoted trees within a landscape setting for a range of environmental, economic and social outcomes. The required rapid production of the review in four months meant an expert approach of key evidence was expected rather than a systematic review. Key topics to cover were selected, in partnership with WG, focussing on issues that could fundamentally change decision-making going forward. The final agreed list was arranged under a series of high-level subject headings, and the individual reviews published as ERAMMP Reports 33 to 38 and include; Biodiversity; Managing Undermanaged Woodland; Future-proofing our Woodland; Climate Change Mitigation; Ecosystem Services, and Economics and Natural Capital Accounting. An Integrated Assessment was also commissioned to provide a synthesis of cross-cutting themes and dependencies between topics. These ERAMMP reports are all provided as Annexes to this report

Meta-analysis of type 2 Diabetes in African Americans Consortium

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is more prevalent in African Americans than in Europeans. However, little is known about the genetic risk in African Americans despite the recent identification of more than 70 T2D loci primarily by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in individuals of European ancestry. In order to investigate the genetic architecture of T2D in African Americans, the MEta-analysis of type 2 DIabetes in African Americans (MEDIA) Consortium examined 17 GWAS on T2D comprising 8,284 cases and 15,543 controls in African Americans in stage 1 analysis. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) association analysis was conducted in each study under the additive model after adjustment for age, sex, study site, and principal components. Meta-analysis of approximately 2.6 million genotyped and imputed SNPs in all studies was conducted using an inverse variance-weighted fixed effect model. Replications were performed to follow up 21 loci in up to 6,061 cases and 5,483 controls in African Americans, and 8,130 cases and 38,987 controls of European ancestry. We identified three known loci (TCF7L2, HMGA2 and KCNQ1) and two novel loci (HLA-B and INS-IGF2) at genome-wide significance (4.15 × 10(-94)<P<5 × 10(-8), odds ratio (OR)  = 1.09 to 1.36). Fine-mapping revealed that 88 of 158 previously identified T2D or glucose homeostasis loci demonstrated nominal to highly significant association (2.2 × 10(-23) < locus-wide P<0.05). These novel and previously identified loci yielded a sibling relative risk of 1.19, explaining 17.5% of the phenotypic variance of T2D on the liability scale in African Americans. Overall, this study identified two novel susceptibility loci for T2D in African Americans. A substantial number of previously reported loci are transferable to African Americans after accounting for linkage disequilibrium, enabling fine mapping of causal variants in trans-ethnic meta-analysis studies.Peer reviewe