The Effect of Biased Communications On Both Trusting and Suspicious Voters

In recent studies of political decision-making, apparently anomalous behavior has been observed on the part of voters, in which negative information about a candidate strengthens, rather than weakens, a prior positive opinion about the candidate. This behavior appears to run counter to rational models of decision making, and it is sometimes interpreted as evidence of non-rational "motivated reasoning". We consider scenarios in which this effect arises in a model of rational decision making which includes the possibility of deceptive information. In particular, we will consider a model in which there are two classes of voters, which we will call trusting voters and suspicious voters, and two types of information sources, which we will call unbiased sources and biased sources. In our model, new data about a candidate can be efficiently incorporated by a trusting voter, and anomalous updates are impossible; however, anomalous updates can be made by suspicious voters, if the information source mistakenly plans for an audience of trusting voters, and if the partisan goals of the information source are known by the suspicious voter to be "opposite" to his own. Our model is based on a formalism introduced by the artificial intelligence community called "multi-agent influence diagrams", which generalize Bayesian networks to settings involving multiple agents with distinct goals

Climate and Land-Use Controls on Surface Water Diversions in the Central Valley, California

California’s Central Valley (CV) is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world, enabled by the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater. We investigated variations in the CV’s managed surface water diversions relative to climate variability. Using a historical record (1979−2010) of diversions from 531 sites, we found diversions are largest in the wetter Sacramento basin to the north, but most variable in the drier Tulare basin to the south. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis finds 72% of the variance of diversions is captured by the first three REOFs. The leading REOF (35% of variance) exhibited strong positive loadings in the Tulare basin, and the corresponding principal component time-series (RPC1) was strongly correlated (ρ > 0.9) with contemporaneous hydrologic variability. This pattern indicates larger than average diversions in the south, with neutral or slightly less than average diversions to the north during wet years, with the opposite true for dry years. The second and third REOFs (20% and 17% of variance, respectively), were strongest in the Sacramento basin and San Francisco Bay−Delta. RPC2 and RPC3 were associated with variations in agricultural- and municipal-bound diversions, respectively. RPC2 and RPC3 were also moderately correlated with 7-year cumulative precipitation based on lagged correlation analysis, indicating that diversions in the north and central portions of the CV respond to longer-term hydrologic variations. The results illustrate a dichotomy of regimes wherein diversions in the more arid Tulare are governed by year-to-year hydrologic variability, while those in wetter northern basins reflect land-use patterns and low-frequency hydrologic variations

Bias correction can modify climate model simulated precipitation changes without adverse effect on the ensemble mean

When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated difference in mean precipitation between two eras. This has important implications when the precipitation is used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. The tendency of quantile mapping to alter model-predicted changes is demonstrated using synthetic precipitation distributions and elucidated with a simple theoretical analysis, which shows that the alteration of model-predicted changes can be controlled by the ratio of model to observed variance. To further evaluate the effects of quantile mapping in a more realistic setting, we use daily precipitation output from 11 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), forced by observed sea surface temperatures, over the conterminous United States to compare precipitation differences before and after quantile mapping bias correction. The effectiveness of the bias correction is not assessed, only its effect on precipitation differences. The change in seasonal mean (winter, DJF, and summer, JJA) precipitation between two historical periods is compared to examine whether the bias correction tends to amplify or diminish an AGCM\u27s simulated precipitation change. In some cases the trend modification can be as large as the original simulated change, though the areas where this occurs varies among AGCMs so the ensemble median shows smaller trend modification. Results show that quantile mapping improves the correspondence with observed changes in some locations and degrades it in others. While not representative of a future where natural precipitation variability is much smaller than that due to external forcing, these results suggest that at least for the next several decades the influence of quantile mapping on seasonal precipitation trends does not systematically degrade projected differences

Investigation of synthetic aperture methods in ultrasound surface imaging using elementary surface types

Synthetic aperture imaging methods have been employed widely in recent research in non-destructive testing (NDT), but uptake has been more limited in medical ultrasound imaging. Typically offering superior focussing power over more traditional phased array methods, these techniques have been employed in NDT applications to locate and characterise small defects within large samples, but have rarely been used to image surfaces. A desire to ultimately employ ultrasonic surface imaging for bone surface geometry measurement prior to surgical intervention motivates this research, and results are presented for initial laboratory trials of a surface reconstruction technique based on global thresholding of ultrasonic 3D point cloud data. In this study, representative geometry artefacts were imaged in the laboratory using two synthetic aperture techniques; the Total Focusing Method (TFM) and the Synthetic Aperture Focusing Technique (SAFT) employing full and narrow synthetic apertures, respectively. Three high precision metallic samples of known geometries (cuboid, sphere and cylinder) which featured a range of elementary surface primitives were imaged using a 5MHz, 128 element 1D phased array employing both SAFT and TFM approaches. The array was manipulated around the samples using a precision robotic positioning system, allowing for repeatable ultrasound derived 3D surface point clouds to be created. A global thresholding technique was then developed that allowed the extraction of the surface profiles, and these were compared with the known geometry samples to provide a quantitative measure of error of 3D surface reconstruction. The mean errors achieved with optimised SAFT imaging for the cuboidal, spherical and cylindrical samples were 1.3 mm, 2.9 mm and 2.0 mm respectively, while those for TFM imaging were 3.7 mm, 3.0 mm and 3.1 mm, respectively. These results were contrary to expectations given the higher information content associated with the TFM images. However, it was established that the reduced error associated with the SAFT technique was associated with significant reductions in side lobe levels of approximately 24dB in comparison to TFM imaging, although this came at the expense of reduced resolution and coverage

Flux calibration of the AAO/UKST SuperCOSMOS H-alpha Survey

The AAO/UKST SuperCOSMOS H$\alpha$ Survey (SHS) was, when completed in 2003, a powerful addition to extant wide-field surveys. The combination of areal coverage, spatial resolution and sensitivity in a narrow imaging band, still marks it out today as an excellent resource for the astronomical community. The 233 separate fields are available online in digital form, with each field covering 25 square degrees. The SHS has been the motivation for equivalent surveys in the north, and new digital H$\alpha$ surveys now beginning in the south such as VPHAS+. It has been the foundation of many important discovery projects with the Macquarie/AAO/Strasbourg H$\alpha$ planetary nebula project being a particularly successful example. However, the full potential of the SHS has been hampered by lack of a clear route to acceptable flux calibration from the base photographic data. We have determined the calibration factors for 170 individual SHS fields, and present a direct pathway to the measurement of integrated H$\alpha$ fluxes and surface brightnesses for resolved nebulae detected in the SHS. We also include a catalogue of integrated H$\alpha$ fluxes for $>$100 planetary and other nebulae measured from the SHS, and use these data to show that fluxes, accurate to $\pm$ 0.10 - 0.14 dex ($\sim$25-35 per cent), can be obtained from these fields. For the remaining 63 fields, a mean calibration factor of 12.0 counts pix$^{-1}$ R$^{-1}$ can be used, allowing the determination of reasonable integrated fluxes accurate to better than $\pm$0.2 dex ($\sim$50 per cent). We outline the procedures involved and the caveats that need to be appreciated in achieving such flux measurements. This paper forms a handy reference source that will significantly increase the scientific utility of the SHS.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables (plus 7 pp. of supplementary online information). Version to appear in MNRA

Vascular regeneration in a basal chordate is due to the presence of immobile, bi-functional cells.

The source of tissue turnover during homeostasis or following injury is usually due to proliferation of a small number of resident, lineage-restricted stem cells that have the ability to amplify and differentiate into mature cell types. We are studying vascular regeneration in a chordate model organism, Botryllus schlosseri, and have previously found that following surgical ablation of the extracorporeal vasculature, new tissue will regenerate in a VEGF-dependent process within 48 hrs. Here we use a novel vascular cell lineage tracing methodology to assess regeneration in parabiosed individuals and demonstrate that the source of regenerated vasculature is due to the proliferation of pre-existing vascular resident cells and not a mobile progenitor. We also show that these cells are bi-potential, and can reversibly adopt two fates, that of the newly forming vessels or the differentiated vascular tissue at the terminus of the vasculature, known as ampullae. In addition, we show that pre-existing vascular resident cells differentially express progenitor and differentiated cell markers including the Botryllus homologs of CD133, VEGFR-2, and Cadherin during the regenerative process

Origins of the midlatitude Pacific decadal variability

Analysis of multiple climate simulations shows much of the midlatitude Pacific decadal variability to be composed of two simultaneously occurring elements: One is a stochastically driven, passive ocean response to the atmosphere while the other is oscillatory and represents a coupled mode of the ocean‐atmosphere system. ENSO processes are not required to explain the origins of the decadal variability. The stochastic variability is driven by random variations in wind stress and heat flux associated with internal atmospheric variability but amplified by a factor of 2 by interactions with the ocean. We also found a coupled mode of the ocean‐atmosphere system, characterized by a significant power spectral peak near 1 cycle/20 years in the region of the midlatitude North Pacific and Kuroshio Extension. Ocean dynamics appear to play a critical role in this coupled air/sea mode

The contribution of energy efficiency towards the success of industrial organisations in South Africa

The original publication is available at http://sajie.journals.ac.zaENGLISH ABSTRACT: Internationally, governments and lobby groups increasingly put pressure on organisations to reduce their impact on the environment. To this end, various studies show the drivers, barriers, and contributions of energy efficiency towards a more sustainable environment, particularly through reduced greenhouse gas emissions and other by-products. In the study summarised in this paper, the factors that drive organisational success were compared with the effects that energy efficiency projects have on organisations. Methods, policies, and strategies on the application of energy efficiency were also studied. The findings are that, in general, most organisations have energy efficiency policies and strategies in place, and they include internal and external stakeholders in their energy efficiency efforts. These efforts also show a positive correlation with the factors that contribute to the perceived success of organisations in the South African industrial sector. These strategies must be maintained in the longer term, as energy efficiency will play a more important role in the future.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Organisasies, wêreldwyd, word toenemend onder druk geplaas deur regerings- en aksiegroepe om hul impak op die omgewing te verminder. Na aanleiding hiervan toon verskeie studies die drywers, struikelblokke en bydraes van energie-doeltreffendheid na ʼn meer volhoubare omgewing, veral ten opsigte van groenhuisgas-emissies en ander neweprodukte. In hierdie studie is die faktore wat die sukses van organisasies dryf vergelyk met die effek van die toepassing van energiedoeltreffendheidsprojekte op organisasies. Metodes, beleid en strategieë in terme van die toepassing van energiedoeltreffendheid is ook bestudeer. Die bevindinge is dat die meeste organisasies, oor die algemeen, beleid en strategieë in plek het in terme van energiedoeltreffendheid; dié organisasies sluit interne en eksterne belanghebbendes in waar hulle strewe na energiedoeltreffendheid. Hierdie aktiwiteite toon ʼn positiewe korrelasie met die faktore wat waarde bydra ten opsigte van die oënskynlike sukses van organisasies in die Suid-Afrikaanse industriële sektor. Dus moet hierdie strategieë in plek gehou word in die langtermyn, aangesien energiedoeltreffendheid ʼn belangriker rol sal speel in die toekoms

Quantum Films Adsorbed on Graphite: Third and Fourth Helium Layers

Using a path-integral Monte Carlo method for simulating superfluid quantum films, we investigate helium layers adsorbed on a substrate consisting of graphite plus two solid helium layers. Our results for the promotion densities and the dependence of the superfluid density on coverage are in agreement with experiment. We can also explain certain features of the measured heat capacity as a function of temperature and coverage.Comment: 13 pages in the Phys. Rev. two-column format, 16 Figure