UK Sugar Beet Farm Productivity Under Different Reform Scenarios: A Farm Level Analysis

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect that the imminent reform in the European Union (EU) sugar regime may have on farm productivity in the United Kingdom (UK). We perform the analysis on a sample of sugar beet farms representative of all the UK sugar beet regions. To estimate the changes in productivity, we estimate a multi-output cost function representing the cropping part of the farm, which is the component that would be mostly affected by the sugar beet reform. We use this cost function to compute the new allocation of outputs and inputs after the changes in the sugar beet quota and price support. This are subsequently used to compute measures of total factor productivity. Our results show slight decreases in the productivity at the individual farm level under both quota and price support reduction. However, when considering the aggregate level, the reduction in the price support shows significant increases in productivity, in contrast to the results obtained from a reduction in quota.EU sugar reform, UK agriculture, UK sugar beet production, multi-output cost function, total factor productivity, Agricultural and Food Policy, Productivity Analysis, Q00, D24,

What kind of Brexit do voters want? Lessons from the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit was a major exercise in deliberative public engagement conducted in autumn 2017. It brought together fifty randomly selected members of the public for two carefully structured weekends of listening, learning, reflecting and discussing. Assembly Members considered what post-Brexit arrangements the UK should pursue, focusing on trade and migration. On trade, most Members wanted the UK to pursue a bespoke arrangement with the EU and rejected the option of leaving the EU with no deal. On migration, most wanted the UK to maintain free movement of labour while using already available policy levers to reduce immigration numbers. These findings provide unique insight into informed public opinion on vital, pressing policy questions. The Assembly also illustrates the valuable role that such deliberative exercises could play in UK democracy. We suggest they could be particular helpful for unlocking progress on issues, such as the future of social care, that are often felt to be ‘too difficult’ to handle

Democracy Matters: Lessons from the 2015 Citizens' Assemblies on English Devolution

The Citizens’ Assembly pilots on local democracy and devolution were the first of their kind in the United Kingdom. Organised by Democracy Matters — an alliance of university researchers and civil society organisations led by Professor Matthew Flinders — and funded by the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council, the Assemblies took place in Southampton and Sheffield towards the end of 2015

Profiling of VEGFs and VEGFRs as Prognostic Factors in Soft Tissue Sarcoma: VEGFR-3 Is an Independent Predictor of Poor Prognosis

BACKGROUND: In non-gastrointestinal stromal tumor soft tissue sarcoma (non-GIST STS) optimal treatment is surgery with wide resection margins. Vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGFs) and receptors (VEGFRs) are known to be key players in the initiation of angiogenesis and lymphangiogenesis. This study investigates the prognostic impact of VEGFs and VEGFRs in non-GIST STS with wide and non-wide resection margins. METHODS: Tumor samples from 249 patients with non-GIST STS were obtained and tissue microarrays were constructed for each specimen. Immunohistochemistry was used to evaluate the expressions of VEGF-A, -C and -D and VEGFR-1, -2 and -3. RESULTS: In the univariate analyses, VEGF-A (P=0.040) in the total material, and VEGF-A (P=0.018), VEGF-C (P=0.025) and VEGFR-3 (P=0.027) in the subgroup with wide resection margins, were significant negative prognostic indicators of disease-specific survival (DSS). In the multivariate analysis, high expression of VEGFR-3 (P=0.042, HR=1.907, 95% CI 1.024-3.549) was an independent significant negative prognostic marker for DSS among patients with wide resection margins. CONCLUSION: VEGFR-3 is a strong and independent negative prognostic marker for non-GIST STSs with wide resection margins

Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment - Sufficient protection against mixture effects?

© 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central LtdThis article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an incentive to generate better data and recommend adopting a pragmatic, but scientifically better founded approach to mixture risk assessment. © 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Oak Foundatio

Water Cycle Changes

This chapter assesses multiple lines of evidence to evaluate past, present and future changes in the global water cycle. It complements material in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 on observed and projected changes in the water cycle, and Chapters 10 and 11 on regional climate change and extreme events. The assessment includes the physical basis for water cycle changes, observed changes in the water cycle and attribution of their causes, future projections and related key uncertainties, and the potential for abrupt change. Paleoclimate evidence, observations, reanalyses and global and regional model simulations are considered. The assessment shows widespread, nonuniform human-caused alterations of the water cycle, which have been obscured by a competition between different drivers across the 20th century and that will be increasingly dominated by greenhouse gas forcing at the global scale

Jasmonic Acid-Induced Changes in Brassica oleracea Affect Oviposition Preference of Two Specialist Herbivores

Jasmonic acid (JA) is a key hormone involved in plant defense responses. The effect of JA treatment of cabbage plants on their acceptability for oviposition by two species of cabbage white butterflies, Pieris rapae and P. brassicae, was investigated. Both butterfly species laid fewer eggs on leaves of JA-treated plants compared to control plants. We show that this is due to processes in the plant after JA treatment rather than an effect of JA itself. The oviposition preference for control plants is adaptive, as development time from larval hatch until pupation of P. rapae caterpillars was longer on JA-treated plants. Total glucosinolate content in leaf surface extracts was similar for control and treated plants; however, two of the five glucosinolates were present in lower amounts in leaf surface extracts of JA-treated plants. When the butterflies were offered a choice between the purified glucosinolate fraction isolated from leaf surface extracts of JA-treated plants and that from control plants, they did not discriminate. Changes in leaf surface glucosinolate profile, therefore, do not seem to explain the change in oviposition preference of the butterflies after JA treatment, suggesting that as yet unknown infochemicals are involved

Longitudinal molecular microbial analysis of influenza-like illness in New York City, may 2009 through may 2010

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We performed a longitudinal study of viral etiology in samples collected in New York City during May 2009 to May 2010 from outpatients with fever or respiratory disease symptoms in the context of a pilot respiratory virus surveillance system.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Samples were assessed for the presence of 13 viruses, including influenza A virus, by MassTag PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At least one virus was detected in 52% of 940 samples analyzed, with 3% showing co-infections. The most frequently detected agents were rhinoviruses and influenza A, all representing the 2009 pandemic H1N1 strain. The incidence of influenza H1N1-positive samples was highest in late spring 2009, followed by a decline in summer and early fall, when rhinovirus infections became predominant before H1N1 reemerged in winter. Our study also identified a focal outbreak of enterovirus 68 in the early fall of 2009.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>MassTag multiplex PCR affords opportunities to track the epidemiology of infectious diseases and may guide clinicians and public health practitioners in influenza-like illness and outbreak management. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion of influenza-like illness remains unexplained underscoring the need for additional platforms.</p