Predicting Differences in Model Parameters with Individual Parameter Contribution Regression Using the R Package ipcr

Unmodeled differences between individuals or groups can bias parameter estimates and may lead to false-positive or false-negative findings. Such instances of heterogeneity can often be detected and predicted with additional covariates. However, predicting differences with covariates can be challenging or even infeasible, depending on the modeling framework and type of parameter. Here, we demonstrate how the individual parameter contribution (IPC) regression framework, as implemented in the R package ipcr, can be leveraged to predict differences in any parameter across a wide range of parametric models. First and foremost, IPC regression is an exploratory analysis technique to determine if and how the parameters of a fitted model vary as a linear function of covariates. After introducing the theoretical foundation of IPC regression, we use an empirical data set to demonstrate how parameter differences in a structural equation model can be predicted with the ipcr package. Then, we analyze the performance of IPC regression in comparison to alternative methods for modeling parameter heterogeneity in a Monte Carlo simulation.Peer Reviewe

Beyond the Mean: A Flexible Framework for Studying Causal Effects Using Linear Models

Graph-based causal models are a flexible tool for causal inference from observational data. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive framework to define, identify, and estimate a broad class of causal quantities in linearly parametrized graph-basedmodels. The proposed method extends the literature, which mainly focuses on causal effects on the mean level and the variance of an outcome variable. For example, we show how to compute the probability that an outcome variable realizes within a target range of values given an intervention, a causal quantity we refer to as the probability of treatment success. We link graphbased causal quantities defined via the do-operator to parameters of the model implied distribution of the observed variables using so-called causal effect functions. Based on these causal effect functions, we propose estimators for causal quantities and show that these estimators are consistent and converge at a rate of N−1/2 under standard assumptions. Thus, causal quantities can be estimated based on sample sizes that are typically available in the social and behavioral sciences. In case of maximum likelihood estimation, the estimators are asymptotically efficient. We illustrate the proposed method with an example based on empirical data, placing special emphasis on the difference between the interventional and conditional distribution.Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (1034)Peer Reviewe

Modeling dynamic personality theories in a continuous‐time framework: An illustration

Objective Personality psychology has traditionally focused on stable between-person differences. Yet, recent theoretical developments and empirical insights have led to a new conceptualization of personality as a dynamic system (e.g., Cybernetic Big Five Theory). Such dynamic systems comprise several components that need to be conceptually distinguished and mapped to a statistical model for estimation. Method In the current work, we illustrate how common components from these new dynamic personality theories may be implemented in a continuous time-modeling framework. Results As an empirical example, we reanalyze experience sampling data with N = 180 persons (with on average T = 40 [SD = 8] measurement occasions) to investigate four different effects between momentary happiness, momentary extraverted behavior, and the perception of a situation as social: (1) between-person effects, (2) contemporaneous effects, (3) autoregressive effects, and (4) cross-lagged effects. Conclusion We highlight that these four effects must not necessarily point in the same direction, which is in line with assumptions from dynamic personality theories.Peer Reviewe

Continuous Time Structural Equation Modeling with R Package ctsem

We introduce ctsem, an R package for continuous time structural equation modeling of panel (N > 1) and time series (N = 1) data, using full information maximum likelihood. Most dynamic models (e.g., cross-lagged panel models) in the social and behavioural sciences are discrete time models. An assumption of discrete time models is that time intervals between measurements are equal, and that all subjects were assessed at the same intervals. Violations of this assumption are often ignored due to the difficulty of accounting for varying time intervals, therefore parameter estimates can be biased and the time course of effects becomes ambiguous. By using stochastic differential equations to estimate an underlying continuous process, continuous time models allow for any pattern of measurement occasions. By interfacing to OpenMx, ctsem combines the flexible specification of structural equation models with the enhanced data gathering opportunities and improved estimation of continuous time models. ctsem can estimate relationships over time for multiple latent processes, measured by multiple noisy indicators with varying time intervals between observations. Within and between effects are estimated simultaneously by modeling both observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Exogenous shocks with different shapes, group differences, higher order diffusion effects and oscillating processes can all be simply modeled. We first introduce and define continuous time models, then show how to specify and estimate a range of continuous time models using ctsem

Exploring the Structure and Interrelations of Time-Stable Psychological Resilience, Psychological Vulnerability, and Social Cohesion

The current study explores the relationship between three constructs of high relevance in the context of adversities which have, however, not yet been systematically linked on the level of psychological dispositions: psychological vulnerability, psychological resilience, and social cohesion. Based on previous theoretical and empirical frameworks, a collection of trait questionnaires was assessed in a Berlin sample of 3,522 subjects between 18 and 65 years of age. Using a confirmatory factor analytical approach, we found no support for a simple three-factor structure. Results from exploratory structural analyses suggest that instead of psychological resilience and psychological vulnerability constituting two separate factors, respective indicators load on one bipolar latent factor. Interestingly, some psychological resilience indicators contributed to an additional specific latent factor, which may be interpreted as adaptive capacities, that is, abilities to adapt to changes or adjust to consequences of adversities. Furthermore, instead of evidence for one single social cohesion factor on the psychological level, indicators of perceived social support and loneliness formed another specific factor of social belonging, while indicators of prosocial competencies were found to form yet another distinct factor, which was positively associated to the other social factors, adaptive capacities and social belonging. Our results suggest that social cohesion is composed of different independent psychological components, such as trust, social belonging, and social skills. Furthermore, our findings highlight the importance of social capacities and belonging for psychological resilience and suggest that decreasing loneliness and increasing social skills should therefore represent a valuable intervention strategy to foster adaptive capacities.Peer Reviewe

Coping with the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perceived Changes in Psychological Vulnerability, Resilience and Social Cohesion before, during and after Lockdown

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns have posed unique and severe challenges to our global society. To gain an integrative understanding of pervasive social and mental health impacts in 3522 Berlin residents aged 18 to 65, we systematically investigated the structural and temporal relationship between a variety of psychological indicators of vulnerability, resilience and social cohesion before, during and after the first lockdown in Germany using a retrospective longitudinal study design. Factor analyses revealed that (a) vulnerability and resilience indicators converged on one general bipolar factor, (b) residual variance of resilience indicators formed a distinct factor of adaptive coping capacities and (c) social cohesion could be reliably measured with a hierarchical model including four first-order dimensions of trust, a sense of belonging, social interactions and social engagement, and one second-order social cohesion factor. In the second step, latent change score models revealed that overall psychological vulnerability increased during the first lockdown and decreased again during re-opening, although not to baseline levels. Levels of social cohesion, in contrast, first decreased and then increased again during re-opening. Furthermore, participants who increased in vulnerability simultaneously decreased in social cohesion and adaptive coping during lockdown. While higher pre-lockdown levels of social cohesion predicted a stronger lockdown effect on mental health, individuals with higher social cohesion during the lockdown and positive change in coping abilities and social cohesion during re-opening showed better mental health recovery, highlighting the important role of social capacities in both amplifying but also overcoming the multiple challenges of this collective crisis.Peer Reviewe

Immediate impact of child maltreatment on mental, developmental, and physical health trajectories

Objective: The immediate impact of child maltreatment on health and developmental trajectories over time is unknown. Longitudinal studies starting in the direct aftermath of exposure with repeated follow-up are needed. Method: We assessed health and developmental outcomes in 6-month intervals over 2 years in 173 children, aged 3-5 years at study entry, including 86 children with exposure to emotional and physical abuse or neglect within 6 months and 87 nonmaltreated children. Assessments included clinician-administered, self- and parent-report measures of psychiatric and behavioral symptoms, development, and physical health. Linear mixed models and latent growth curve analyses were used to contrast trajectories between groups and to investigate the impact of maltreatment features on trajectories. Results: Maltreated children exhibited greater numbers of psychiatric diagnoses (b = 1.998, p < .001), externalizing (b = 13.29, p < .001) and internalizing (b = 11.70, p < .001) symptoms, impairments in cognitive (b = -11.586, p < .001), verbal (b = -10.687, p < .001), and motor development (b = -7.904, p = .006), and greater numbers of medical symptoms (b = 1.021, p < .001) compared to nonmaltreated children across all time-points. Lifetime maltreatment severity and/or age at earliest maltreatment exposure predicted adverse outcomes over time. Conclusion: The profound, immediate, and stable impact of maltreatment on health and developmental trajectories supports a biological embedding model and provides foundation to scrutinize the precise underlying mechanisms. Such knowledge will enable the development of early risk markers and mechanism-driven interventions that mitigate adverse trajectories in maltreated children

Psychopathological networks:Theory, methods and practice

In recent years, network approaches to psychopathology have sparked much debate and have had a significant impact on how mental disorders are perceived in the field of clinical psychology. However, there are many important challenges in moving from theory to empirical research and clinical practice and vice versa. Therefore, in this article, we bring together different points of view on psychological networks by methodologists and clinicians to give a critical overview on these challenges, and to present an agenda for addressing these challenges. In contrast to previous reviews, we especially focus on methodological issues related to temporal networks. This includes topics such as selecting and assessing the quality of the nodes in the network, distinguishing between- and within-person effects in networks, relating items that are measured at different time scales, and dealing with changes in network structures. These issues are not only important for researchers using network models on empirical data, but also for clinicians, who are increasingly likely to encounter (person-specific) networks in the consulting room

From Data to Causes III: Bayesian Priors for General Cross-Lagged Panel Models (GCLM)

This article describes some potential uses of Bayesian estimation for time-series and panel data models by incorporating information from prior probabilities (i.e., priors) in addition to observed data. Drawing on econometrics and other literatures we illustrate the use of informative “shrinkage” or “small variance” priors (including so-called “Minnesota priors”) while extending prior work on the general cross-lagged panel model (GCLM). Using a panel dataset of national income and subjective well-being (SWB) we describe three key benefits of these priors. First, they shrink parameter estimates toward zero or toward each other for time-varying parameters, which lends additional support for an income → SWB effect that is not supported with maximum likelihood (ML). This is useful because, second, these priors increase model parsimony and the stability of estimates (keeping them within more reasonable bounds) and thus improve out-of-sample predictions and interpretability, which means estimated effect should also be more trustworthy than under ML. Third, these priors allow estimating otherwise under-identified models under ML, allowing higher-order lagged effects and time-varying parameters that are otherwise impossible to estimate using observed data alone. In conclusion we note some of the responsibilities that come with the use of priors which, departing from typical commentaries on their scientific applications, we describe as involving reflection on how best to apply modeling tools to address matters of worldly concern

Continuous-time modeling in prevention research: An illustration

The analysis of cross-lagged relationships is a popular approach in prevention research to explore the dynamics between constructs over time. However, a limitation of commonly used cross-lagged models is the requirement of equally spaced measurement occasions that prevents the usage of flexible longitudinal designs and complicates cross-study comparisons. Continuous-time modeling overcomes these limitations. In this article, we illustrate the use of continuous-time models using Bayesian and frequentist approaches to model estimation. As an empirical example, we study the dynamic interplay of physical activity and health, a classic research topic in prevention science, using data from the “Midlife in the United States (MIDUS 2): Daily Stress Project, 2004–2009.” To help prevention researchers in adopting the approach, we provide annotated R scripts and a simulated data set based on the results from analyzing the MIDUS 2 data.Peer Reviewe