Evaluating the suitability of coupled biophysical models for fishery management

The potential role of coupled biophysical models in enhancing the conservation, management, and recovery of fish stocks is assessed, with emphasis on anchovy, cod, herring, and sprat in European waters. The assessment indicates that coupled biophysical models are currently capable of simulating transport patterns, along with temperature and prey fields within marine ecosystems; they therefore provide insight into the variability of early-life-stage dynamics and connectivity within stocks. Moreover, the influence of environmental variability on potential recruitment success may be discerned from model hindcasts. Based on case studies, biophysical modelling results are shown to be capable of shedding light on whether stock management frameworks need re-evaluation. Hence, key modelling products were identified that will contribute to the development of viable stock recovery plans and management strategies. The study also suggests that approaches combining observation, process knowledge, and numerical modelling could be a promising way forward in understanding and simulating the dynamics of marine fish populations

Relationships between spawning ground identity, Latitude and early life thermal exposure in Northeast Arctic Cod

from its feeding grounds in the Barents Sea to various spawning banks along the Norwegian coast. Prior to the 1990s these banks were located on a wide latitudinal range from Finnmark (~71º N) to Møre (~63º N), or even to the south-western parts of Norway (~60º N), with the highest densities around Lofoten (~69º N). The migration is energetically costly, but may be profitable if offspring experience warmer water, higher growth rates and lower mortality. To investigate if such a temperature- benefit-hypothesis is plausible, we utilize a regional oceanographic model system (ROMS) and a particle tracking model to trace the drift of particles (virtual cod larvae) released at six important spawning grounds along a north-south gradient. We did this for two years with contrasting oceanographic conditions, and we assume the integrated ambient temperature of each particle determines growth potential during the northbound drift. In the model, particles released at the most southerly bank generally do experience significantly higher temperatures than particles released at more northern spawning grounds. This is caused by a combination of higher sea-temperatures and higher retention above and around the southern spawning ground. However, particles released at the important spawning grounds in Vestfjorden are exposed to the lowest temperatures of all. Our results suggest that offspring temperature exposure is not simply a function of latitude, but that other factors such as retention, larval prey availability and potential energetic costs of parents may modify the profitability of the spawning migration

The Northeast Greenland Shelf as a Potential Habitat for the Northeast Arctic Cod

Observations (1978–1991) of distributions of pelagic juvenile Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua L.) show that up to 1/3 of the year class are dispersed off the continental shelf and into the deep Norwegian Sea while on the way from the spring-spawning areas along the Norwegian coast to the autumn-settlement areas in the Barents Sea. The fate of this variable fraction of pelagic juveniles off-shelf has been an open question ever since Johan Hjort's (1914) seminal work. We have examined both the mechanisms causing offspring off-shelf transport, and their subsequent destiny using an individual-based biophysical model applied to quantify growth and dispersal. Our results show, consistently with the observations, that total off-shelf transport is highly variable between years and may be up to 27.4%. Offspring from spawning grounds around Lofoten have a higher chance of being displaced off the shelf. The off-shelf transport is dominated by episodic events where frequencies and dates vary between years. Northeasterly wind conditions over a 3–7-day period prior to the off-shelf events are a good proxy for dispersal of offspring off the shelf. Offspring transported into the open ocean are on average carried along three following routes: back onto the adjacent eastern shelves and into the Barents Sea (36.9%), recirculating within the Lofoten Basin (60.7%), or drifting northwest to the northeast Greenland shelf (2.4%). For the latter fraction the transport may exceed 12% depending on year. Recent investigations have discovered distributions of young cod on the northeast Greenland shelf indicating that conditions may support survival for Northeast Arctic cod offspring

Wind-Driven Atlantic Water Flow as a Direct Mode for Reduced Barents Sea Ice Cover

Variability in the Barents Sea ice cover on interannual and longer time scales has previously been shown to be governed by oceanic heat transport. Based on analysis of observations and results from an ocean circulation model during an event of reduced sea ice cover in the northeastern Barents Sea in winter 1993, it is shown that the ocean also plays a direct role within seasons. Positive wind stress curl and associated Ekman divergence causes a coherent increase in the Atlantic water transport along the negative thermal gradient through the Barents Sea. The immediate response connected to the associated local winds in the northeastern Barents Sea is a decrease in the sea ice cover due to advection. Despite a subsequent anomalous ocean-to-air heat loss on the order of 100 W m22 due to the open water, the increase in the ocean heat content caused by the circulation anomaly reduced refreezing on a time scale of order one month. Furthermore, it is found that coherent ocean heat transport anomalies occurred more frequently in the latter part of the last five decades during periods of positive North Atlantic Oscillation index, coinciding with the Barents Sea winter sea ice cover decline from the 1990s and onward.publishedVersio

Retention of Coastal Cod Eggs in a Fjord Caused by Interactions between Egg Buoyancy and Circulation Pattern

Norwegian coastal cod form a stationary population of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua consisting of several genetically separated subpopulations. A small-scale differentiation in marine populations with pelagic eggs and larvae is made possible by local retention of early life stages in coastal environments. A numerical model was used to simulate the circulation in a fjord system in northern Norway over 2 years with different river runoff patterns. The dispersal of cod eggs was calculated with a particle-tracking model that used three-dimensional currents. The observed thickness of the low-salinity surface layer was well reproduced by the model, but the surface salinity was generally lower in the model than in the observations. The cod eggs attained a subsurface vertical distribution, avoiding the surface and causing retention. Interannual variations in river runoff can cause small changes in the vertical distribution of cod eggs and larger changes in the vertical current structure. Retention in the fjord system was strong in both years, but some eggs were subjected to offshore transport over a limited time period. The timing of offshore transport depended on the precipitation and temperatures in adjacent drainage areas. A possible match between maximized spawning and offshore transport may have a negative effect on local recruitment

Dispersants Have Limited Effects on Exposure Rates of Oil Spills on Fish Eggs and Larvae in Shelf Seas

Early life stages of fish are particularly vulnerable to oil spills. Simulations of overlap of fish eggs and larvae with oil from different oil-spill scenarios, both without and with the dispersant Corexit 9500, enable quantitative comparisons of dispersants as a mitigation alternative. We have used model simulations of a blow out of 4500 m³ of crude oil per day (Statfjord light crude) for 30 days at three locations along the Norwegian coast. Eggs were released from nine different known spawning grounds, in the period from March 1st until the end of April, and all spawning products were followed for 90 days from the spill start at April first independent of time for spawning. We have modeled overlap between spawning products and oil concentrations giving a total polycyclic hydrocarbon (TPAH) concentration of more than 1.0 or 0.1 ppb (μg/l). At these orders of magnitude, we expect acute mortality or sublethal effects, respectively. In general, adding dispersants results in higher concentrations of TPAHs in a reduced volume of water compared to not adding dispersants. Also, the TPAHs are displaced deeper in the water column. Model simulations of the spill scenarios showed that addition of chemical dispersant in general moderately decreased the fraction of eggs and larvae that were exposed above the selected threshold values

Atlantic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae have a magnetic compass that guides their orientation

Atlantic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) is a commercially important species of gadoid fish. In the North Sea, their main spawning areas are located close to the northern continental slope. Eggs and larvae drift with the current across the North Sea. However, fish larvae of many taxa can orient at sea using multiple external cues, including the Earth's magnetic field. In this work, we investigated whether haddock larvae passively drift or orient using the Earth's magnetic field. We observed the behavior of 59 and 102 haddock larvae swimming in a behavioral chamber deployed in the Norwegian North Sea and in a magnetic laboratory, respectively. In both in situ and laboratory settings, where the magnetic field direction was modified, haddock larvae significantly oriented toward the northwest. We conclude that haddock larvae orientation at sea is guided by a magnetic compass mechanism. These results have implications for retention and dispersal of pelagic haddock larvae