Did long-memory of liquidity signal the European sovereign debt crisis?

This paper analyses high frequency MTS data to comprehensively evaluate the liquidity of the European sovereign bond markets before and during the European sovereign debt crisis for eleven countries. The Hill index, Generalized Hurst exponent and Dynamic Conditional Score are employed to evaluate the properties of the bid-ask spread. Sovereign bonds exhibit the stylized facts reported for a range of financial markets. The 1-min interval analysis indicates the level of bid-ask spread exhibits long-memory and the change in bid-ask spread experiences volatility clustering. In a dynamic setting, the volatility of bid-ask spread also exhibits long-memory in most European sovereign bond markets across all three maturities. Long-memory effects diminish (disappear) for 5-min (15-min) interval, and for short-term maturity (peripheral countries) is stronger than long-term maturity (core countries). Analysis of sub-periods indicates that long-memory process reached its peak during European sovereign debt crisis from May 2010 to December 2011. This analysis suggests that estimating long-memory parameters for high-frequency data could be a useful tool to monitor market stability

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants

Dynamically Driven Evolution of the Interstellar Medium in M51

We report the highest-fidelity observations of the spiral galaxy M51 in CO emission, revealing the evolution of giant molecular clouds (GMCs) vis-a-vis the large-scale galactic structure and dynamics. The most massive GMCs (so-called GMAs) are first assembled and then broken up as the gas flow through the spiral arms. The GMAs and their H2 molecules are not fully dissociated into atomic gas as predicted in stellar feedback scenarios, but are fragmented into smaller GMCs upon leaving the spiral arms. The remnants of GMAs are detected as the chains of GMCs that emerge from the spiral arms into interarm regions. The kinematic shear within the spiral arms is sufficient to unbind the GMAs against self-gravity. We conclude that the evolution of GMCs is driven by large-scale galactic dynamics --their coagulation into GMAs is due to spiral arm streaming motions upon entering the arms, followed by fragmentation due to shear as they leave the arms on the downstream side. In M51, the majority of the gas remains molecular from arm entry through the inter-arm region and into the next spiral arm passage.Comment: 6 pages, including 3 figures. Accepted, ApJ

Interpreting physical performance in professional soccer match-play: Should we be more pragmatic in our approach?

Academic and practitioner interest in the physical performance of male professional soccer players in the competition setting determined via time-motion analyses has grown substantially over the last four decades leading to a substantial body of published research and aiding development of a more systematic evidence-based framework for physical conditioning. Findings have forcibly shaped contemporary opinions in the sport with researchers and practitioners frequently emphasising the important role that physical performance plays in match outcomes. Time-motion analyses have also influenced practice as player conditioning programmes can be tailored according to the different physical demands identified across individual playing positions. Yet despite a more systematic approach to physical conditioning, data indicate that even at the very highest standards of competition, the contemporary player is still susceptible to transient and end-game fatigue. Over the course of this article, the author suggests that a more pragmatic approach to interpreting the current body of time-motion analysis data and its application in the practical setting is nevertheless required. Examples of this are addressed using findings in the literature to examine: a) the association between competitive physical performance and ‘success’ in professional soccer, b) current approaches to interpreting differences in time-motion analysis data across playing positions and, c) whether data can realistically be used to demonstrate the occurrence of fatigue in match-play. Gaps in the current literature and directions for future research are also identified

An HST Archival Survey of Feathers in Spiral Galaxies

We present a survey of spiral arm extinction substructure referred to as feathers in 223 spiral galaxies using HST WFPC2 images. The sample includes all galaxies in the RC3 catalog with cz < 5000 km/s, B_T < 15, i < 60 degrees, and types Sa--Sd with well-exposed broadband WFPC2 images. The detection frequency of delineated, periodic feathers in this sample is 20% (45 of 223). This work is consistent with Lynds (1970), who concluded that feathers are common in prototypical Sc galaxies; we find that feathers are equally common in Sb galaxies. Sb--Sc galaxies without clear evidence for feathers either had poorer quality images, or flocculent or complex structure. We did not find clearly defined feathers in any Scd--Sd galaxy. The probability of detecting feathers was highest (83%) for spirals with well-defined primary dust lanes (PDLs; the lanes which line the inner edge of an arm); well-defined PDLs were only noted in Sab--Sc galaxies. Consistent with earlier work, we find that neighboring feathers tend to have similar shapes and pitch angles. OB associations are often found lining feathers, and many feathers transition to the stellar substructures known as spurs (Elmegreen 1980). We find that feathers are coincident with interarm filaments strikingly revealed in Spitzer 8 micron images. Comparison with CO 1-0 maps of NGC 0628 and NGC 5194 from BIMA SONG shows that feathers originate at the PDL coincident with gas surface density peaks. Contrary to the appearance at 8 microns, the CO maps show that gas surface density in feathers decreases rapidly with distance from the PDL. Also, we find that the spacing between feathers decreases with increasing gas surface density, consistent with formation via a gravitational instability.Comment: 47 pages, 22 figures (Figures 1-16,18 are in JPEG format, figures 17,19-22 are embedded postscript files; full resolution images at http://www.astro.umd.edu/~mlavigne/research/hst-survey-06-2006/). Accepted for publication in the Ap

Dynamically Driven Evolution of the Interstellar Medium in M51

Massive star formation occurs in giant molecular clouds (GMCs); an understanding of the evolution of GMCs is a prerequisite to develop theories of star formation and galaxy evolution. We report the highest-fidelity observations of the grand-design spiral galaxy M51 in carbon monoxide (CO) emission, revealing the evolution of GMCs vis-a-vis the large-scale galactic structure and dynamics. The most massive GMCs (giant molecular associations (GMAs)) are first assembled and then broken up as the gas flow through the spiral arms. The GMAs and their H_2 molecules are not fully dissociated into atomic gas as predicted in stellar feedback scenarios, but are fragmented into smaller GMCs upon leaving the spiral arms. The remnants of GMAs are detected as the chains of GMCs that emerge from the spiral arms into interarm regions. The kinematic shear within the spiral arms is sufficient to unbind the GMAs against self-gravity. We conclude that the evolution of GMCs is driven by large-scale galactic dynamics—their coagulation into GMAs is due to spiral arm streaming motions upon entering the arms, followed by fragmentation due to shear as they leave the arms on the downstream side. In M51, the majority of the gas remains molecular from arm entry through the interarm region and into the next spiral arm passage

Detection of Multiple Variants of Grapevine Fanleaf Virus in Single Xiphinema index Nematodes

Grapevine fanleaf virus (GFLV) is responsible for a widespread disease in vineyards worldwide. Its genome is composed of two single-stranded positive-sense RNAs, which both show a high genetic diversity. The virus is transmitted from grapevine to grapevine by the ectoparasitic nematode Xiphinema index. Grapevines in diseased vineyards are often infected by multiple genetic variants of GFLV but no information is available on the molecular composition of virus variants retained in X. index following nematodes feeding on roots. In this work, aviruliferous X. index were fed on three naturally GFLV-infected grapevines for which the virome was characterized by RNAseq. Six RNA-1 and four RNA-2 molecules were assembled segregating into four and three distinct phylogenetic clades of RNA-1 and RNA-2, respectively. After 19 months of rearing, single and pools of 30 X. index tested positive for GFLV. Additionally, either pooled or single X. index carried multiple variants of the two GFLV genomic RNAs. However, the full viral genetic diversity found in the leaves of infected grapevines was not detected in viruliferous nematodes, indicating a genetic bottleneck. Our results provide new insights into the complexity of GFLV populations and the putative role of X. index as reservoirs of virus diversity

Return spillovers between White Metals ETFs: The Role of Oil, Gold, and Global Equity

This paper investigates the relationship between white precious metals and gold, oil and global equity by means of spillovers and volatility transmission. Relying on the recently introduced ETFs, this study is the first to analyse return spillovers derived from an E-GARCH model and to take into account frequency dynamics to understand changes in connectedness across periods of time. Results uncover numerous channels of return transmission across the selected ETF markets over the last 10 years and highlight the role of gold ETFs as the most influential market in the sample. Furthermore, our work provides insights into the characteristics of white precious metal markets using a hidden semi-Markov model. Finally, we argue that even though silver and platinum have gained more importance as investment assets over the last few years, palladium still very much remains an industrial metal

A Warp in Progress : H I and Radio Continuum Observations of the Spiral NGC 3145

Date of Acceptance: 16/06/2015We present VLA H I and 6 cm radio continuum observations of the spiral NGC 3145 and H I observations of its two companions, NGC 3143 and PGC 029578. In optical images NGC 3145 has stellar arms that appear to cross, forming "X"-features. Our radio continuum observations rule out shock fronts at 3 of the 4 "X"-features. In the middle-to-outer disk, the H I line-profiles of NGC 3145 are skewed. Relative to the disk, the gas in the skewed wing of the line-profiles has z-motions away from us on the approaching side of the galaxy and z-motions of about the same magnitude (about 40 km/s) towards us on the receding side. These warping motions imply that there has been a perturbation with a sizeable component perpendicular to the disk over large spatial scales. Two features in NGC 3145 have velocities indicating that they are out-of-plane tidal arms. One is an apparent branch of a main spiral arm; the velocity of the branch is 150 km/s greater than the spiral arm where they appear to intersect in projection. The other is an arm that forms 3 of the "X"-features. It differs in velocity by 56 km/s from the disk at the same projected location. Based on its SFR and H I properties, NGC 3143 is the more likely of the two companions to have interacted with NGC 3145 recently. A simple analytic model demonstrates that an encounter between NGC 3143 and NGC 3145 is a plausible explanation for the observed warping motions in NGC 3145.Peer reviewe