An estimation of different minimum exergy return ratios required for society

This article shows that as technical change enhances the conversion efficiency of primary-to-final and final-to-useful exergy processes, the minimum exergy return ratios (ExRR) required for society decreases, irrespective of the boundary under consideration. Therefore, the gains in exergy conversion efficiency that mostly occurred between the 1940s and the 1970s have compensated for the concurrent decrease of exergy surpluses of the fossil energy system. However, while the minimum ExRR required for modern societies have been quite stable since the 1970s, actual ExRR prevailing for energy systems have continued to decrease. Therefore, the increased difficulty in improving exergy conversion efficiency since the mid-1970s has resulted in a tightening exergy constraint on economic growth; this could partially explain the global economic slowdown of the last forty years. Further work is needed to estimate actual exergy return ratios that prevailed in the past decades and compare their distance relatively to the minimum levels estimated in the present article, and hence have a more precise idea of the exergy constraint’s magnitude acting on economic growth

Energy expenditure, economic growth, and the minimum EROI of society

We estimate energy expenditure for the US and world economies from 1850 to 2012. Periods of high energy expenditure relative to GDP (from 1850 to 1945), or spikes (1973–74 and 1978–79) are associated with low economic growth rates, and periods of low or falling energy expenditure are associated with high and rising economic growth rates (e.g. 1945–1973). Over the period 1960–2010 for which we have continuous year-to-year data for control variables (capital formation, population, and unemployment rate) we estimate that, statistically, in order to enjoy positive growth, the US economy cannot afford to spend more than 11% of its GDP on energy. Given the current energy intensity of the US economy, this translates in a minimum societal EROI of approximately 11:1 (or a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level). Granger tests consistently reveal a one way causality running from the level of energy expenditure (as a fraction of GDP) to economic growth in the US between 1960 and 2010. A coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency. This would yield a “double dividend”: increased societal EROI (through decreased energy intensity of capital investment), and decreased sensitivity to energy price volatility

Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions

This article builds a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defined as the efficiency of primary-to-useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical productions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly influenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had characterized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by definition from a finite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfortunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing

A systematic review of the energy and climate impacts of teleworking

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) increasingly enable employees to work from home and other locations (‘teleworking’). This study explores the extent to which teleworking reduces the need to travel to work and the consequent impacts on economy-wide energy consumption. Methods/Design: The paper provides a systematic review of the current state of knowledge of the energy impacts of teleworking. This includes the energy savings from reduced commuter travel and the indirect impacts on energy consumption associated with changes in non-work travel and home energy consumption. The aim is to identify the conditions under which teleworking leads to a net reduction in economy-wide energy consumption, and the circumstances where benefits may be outweighed by unintended impacts. The paper synthesises the results of 39 empirical studies, identified through a comprehensive search of 9,000 published articles. Review results/Synthesis: Twenty six of the 39 studies suggest that teleworking reduces energy use, and only eight studies suggest that teleworking increases, or has a neutral impact on energy use. However, differences in the methodology, scope and assumptions of the different studies make it difficult to estimate ‘average’ energy savings. The main source of savings is the reduced distance travelled for commuting, potentially with an additional contribution from lower office energy consumption. However, the more rigorous studies that include a wider range of impacts (e.g. non-work travel or home energy use) generally find smaller savings. Discussion: Despite the generally positive verdict on teleworking as an energy-saving practice, there are numerous uncertainties and ambiguities about its actual or potential benefits. These relate to the extent to which teleworking may lead to unpredictable increases in non-work travel and home energy use that may outweigh the gains from reduced work travel. The available evidence suggests that economy-wide energy savings are typically modest, and in many circumstances could be negative or non-existent

β1 integrin activates Rac1 in Schwann cells to generate radial lamellae during axonal sorting and myelination

Myelin is a multispiraled extension of glial membrane that surrounds axons. How glia extend a surface many-fold larger than their body is poorly understood. Schwann cells are peripheral glia and insert radial cytoplasmic extensions into bundles of axons to sort, ensheath, and myelinate them. Laminins and β1 integrins are required for axonal sorting, but the downstream signals are largely unknown. We show that Schwann cells devoid of β1 integrin migrate to and elongate on axons but cannot extend radial lamellae of cytoplasm, similar to cells with low Rac1 activation. Accordingly, active Rac1 is decreased in β1 integrin–null nerves, inhibiting Rac1 activity decreases radial lamellae in Schwann cells, and ablating Rac1 in Schwann cells of transgenic mice delays axonal sorting and impairs myelination. Finally, expressing active Rac1 in β1 integrin–null nerves improves sorting. Thus, increased activation of Rac1 by β1 integrins allows Schwann cells to switch from migration/elongation to the extension of radial membranes required for axonal sorting and myelination

Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: a review of the evidence and its implications

The majority of global energy scenarios anticipate a structural break in the relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP), with several scenarios projecting absolute decoupling, where energy use falls while GDP continues to grow. However, there are few precedents for absolute decoupling, and current global trends are in the opposite direction. This paper explores one possible explanation for the historical close relationship between energy consumption and GDP, namely that the economy-wide rebound effects from improved energy efficiency are larger than is commonly assumed. We review the evidence on the size of economy-wide rebound effects and explore whether and how such effects are taken into account within the models used to produce global energy scenarios. We find the evidence base to be growing in size and quality, but remarkably diverse in terms of the methodologies employed, assumptions used, and rebound mechanisms included. Despite this diversity, the results are broadly consistent and suggest that economy-wide rebound effects may erode more than half of the expected energy savings from improved energy efficiency. We also find that many of the mechanisms driving rebound effects are overlooked by integrated assessment and global energy models. We therefore conclude that global energy scenarios may underestimate the future rate of growth of global energy demand

Distinctive sequence patterns in metazoan and yeast nucleosomes: Implications for linker histone binding to AT-rich and methylated DNA

Linker histones (LHs) bind to the DNA entry/exit points of nucleosomes and demonstrate preference for AT-rich DNA, although the recognized sequence patterns remain unknown. These patterns are expected to be more pronounced in metazoan nucleosomes with abundant LHs, compared to yeast nucleosomes with few LHs. To test this hypothesis, we compared the nucleosome core particle (NCP) sequences from chicken, Drosophila and yeast, extending them by the flanking sequences extracted from the genomes. We found that the known ∼10-bp periodic oscillation of AT-rich elements goes beyond the ends of yeast nucleosomes, but is distorted in metazoan sequences where the ‘out-of-phase’ AT-peaks appear at the NCP ends. The observed difference is likely to be associated with sequence-specific LH binding. We therefore propose a new structural model for LH binding to metazoan nucleosomes, postulating that the highly conserved nonpolar ‘wing’ region of the LH globular domain (tetrapeptide GVGA) recognizes AT-rich fragments through hydrophobic interactions with the thymine methyl groups. These interactions lead to DNA bending at the NCP ends and formation of a ‘stem-like’ structure. The same mechanism accounts for the high affinity of LH to methylated DNA—a feature critical for stabilization of the higher-order structure of chromatin and for repression of transcription

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Reviewing the scope and thematic focus of 100,000 publications on energy consumption, services and social aspects of climate change: a big data approach to demand-side mitigation

As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic analysis, community building, and by suggesting next steps for evaluating this body of literature

Energy capture, technological change, and economic growth: an evolutionary perspective

After several decades of discussions, mainstream economics still does not recognize the crucial role that energy plays in the economic process. Hence, the purpose of this article is to reformulate a clear and in-depth state of knowledge provided by a thermo-evolutionary perspective of the economic system. First, definitions of essential concepts such as energy, exergy, entropy, self-organization, and dissipative structures are recalled, along with a statement of the laws of thermodynamics. The comprehension of such basics of thermodynamics allows an exploration of the meaning of thermodynamic extremal principles for the evolution of physical and biological systems. A theoretical thermo-evolutionary approach is then used to depict technological change and economic growth in relation to the capture of energy and its dissipation. This theoretical analysis is then placed in a historical context. It is shown that during the entirety of human history, energy has been central to direct the successive phases of technological change and economic development. In particular, energy is crucial to understanding the transition from foraging to farming societies on the one hand, and from farming to industrial societies on the other. Finally, the theoretical and historical insights previously described are used to discuss a possible origin of the economic slowdown of the most advanced economies for the last 40 years. The article concludes that conventional economic growth theories should finally acknowledge the central role that energy plays in the economic process