Diversity of Rainfall Thresholds for early warning of hydro-geological disasters

For early warning of disasters induced by precipitation (such as floods and landslides), different kinds of rainfall thresholds are adopted, which vary from each other, on the basis on adopted hypotheses. In some cases, they represent the occurrence probability of an event (landslide or flood), in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned indicator I (a function of rainfall heights), and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of a prefixed percentage a critical value for I, indicated as Icr. For each scheme, it is usual to define three different criticality levels (ordinary, moderate and severe), which are associated to warning levels, according to emergency plans. This work briefly discusses different schemes of rainfall thresholds, focusing attention on landslide prediction, with some applications to a real case study in Calabria region (southern Italy)

A space-time generator for rainfall nowcasting: the PRAISEST model

International audienceThe paper introduces a new stochastic technique for forecasting rainfall in space-time domain: the PRAISEST Model (Prediction of Rainfall Amount Inside Storm Events: Space and Time). The model is based on the assumption that the rainfall height H accumulated on an interval ?t between the instants i?t and (i+1)?t and on a spatial cell of size ?x?y is correlated either with a variable Z, representing antecedent precipitation at the same point, either with a variable W, representing simultaneous rainfall at neighbour cells. The mathematical background is given by a joined probability density fH,W,Z (h,w,z) in which the variables have a mixed nature, that is a finite probability for null value and infinitesimal probabilities for the positive values. As study area, the Calabria region, in Southern Italy, has been selected. The region has been discretised by 10 km×10 km cell grid, according to the raingauge network density in this area. Storm events belonging to 1990?2004 period were analyzed to test performances of the PRAISEST model

Rainfall nowcasting by at site stochastic model P.R.A.I.S.E.

The paper introduces a stochastic model to forecast rainfall heights at site: the P.R.A.I.S.E. model (Prediction of Rainfall Amount Inside Storm Events). PRAISE is based on the assumption that the rainfall height <I>H_i</I>+1 accumulated on an interval &Delta;<I>t</I> between the instants <I>i&Delta;t</I> and <I>(i+1&Delta;t</I> is correlated with a variable <I>Z_i^(&nu;)</I>, representing antecedent precipitation. The mathematical background is given by a joined probability density <I>f_{H_i+1}, Z_i^(&nu;)(h_i+1 ,z_i^(&nu;)</I>) in which the variables have a mixed nature, that is a finite probability in correspondence to the null value and infinitesimal probabilities in correspondence to the positive values. As study area, the Calabria region, in Southern Italy, was selected, to test performances of the PRAISE model

A population-based observational study of diabetes during pregnancy in Victoria, Australia, 1999-2008

Objectives: This paper reports secular trends in diabetes in pregnancy in Victoria, Australia and examines the effect of including or excluding women with pre-existing diabetes on gestational diabetes (GDM) prevalence estimates

Heart failure following cancer treatment: characteristics, survival and mortality of a linked health data analysis

Background: Cardiotoxicity resulting in heart failure is a devastating complication of cancer therapy. A patient may survive cancer only to develop heart failure (HF), which has a higher mortality rate than some cancers. Aim: This study aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes of HF in patients with blood or breast cancer after chemotherapy treatment. Methods: Queensland Cancer Registry, Death Registry and Hospital Administration records were linked (1996–2009). Patients were categorised as those with an index HF admission (that occurred after cancer diagnosis) and those without an index HF admission (non-HF). Results: A total of 15 987 patients was included, and 1062 (6.6%) had an index HF admission. Median age of HF patients was 67 years (interquartile range 58–75) versus 54 years (interquartile range 44–64) for non-HF patients. More men than women developed HF (48.6% vs 29.5%), and a greater proportion in the HF group had haematological cancer (83.1%) compared with breast cancer (16.9%). After covariate adjustment, HF patients had increased mortality risk compared with non-HF patients (hazard ratios 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.54–1.81)), and 47% of the index HF admission occurred within 1 year from cancer diagnosis and 70% within 3 years. Conclusion: Cancer treatment may place patients at a greater risk of developing HF. The onset of HF occurred soon after chemotherapy, and those who developed HF had a greater mortality risk

Evaluation of AUSDRISK as a screening tool for lifestyle modification programs: international implications for policy and cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the current use of Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool (AUSDRISK) as a screening tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes for entry into lifestyle modification programs. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: AUSDRISK scores were calculated from participants aged 40-74 years in the Greater Green Triangle Risk Factor Study, a cross-sectional population survey in 3 regions of Southwest Victoria, Australia, 2004-2006. Biomedical profiles of AUSDRISK risk categories were determined along with estimates of the Victorian population included at various cut-off scores. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for AUSDRISK in determining fasting plasma glucose (FPG) &ge;6.1 mmol/L. RESULTS: Increasing AUSDRISK scores were associated with an increase in weight, body mass index, FPG, and metabolic syndrome. Increasing the minimum cut-off score also increased the proportion of individuals who were obese and centrally obese, had impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and metabolic syndrome. An AUSDRISK score of &ge;12 was estimated to include 39.5% of the Victorian population aged 40-74 (916 000), while a score of &ge;20 would include only 5.2% of the same population (120 000). At AUSDRISK&ge;20, the PPV for detecting FPG&ge;6.1 mmol/L was 28.4%. CONCLUSIONS: AUSDRISK is powered to predict those with IFG and undiagnosed type 2 diabetes, but its effectiveness as the sole determinant for entry into a lifestyle modification program is questionable given the large proportion of the population screened-in using the current minimum cut-off of &ge;12. AUSDRISK should be used in conjunction with oral glucose tolerance testing, fasting glucose, or glycated hemoglobin to identify those individuals at highest risk of progression to type 2 diabetes, who should be the primary targets for lifestyle modification

Elevated left and reduced right orbitomedial prefrontal fractional anisotropy in adults with bipolar disorder revealed by tract-based spatial statistics

Context - Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies in adults with bipolar disorder (BD) indicate altered white matter (WM) in the orbitomedial prefrontal cortex (OMPFC), potentially underlying abnormal prefrontal corticolimbic connectivity and mood dysregulation in BD. Objective - To use tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) to examine WM skeleton (ie, the most compact whole-brain WM) in subjects with BD vs healthy control subjects. Design - Cross-sectional, case-control, whole-brain DTI using TBSS. Setting - University research institute. Participants - Fifty-six individuals, 31 having a DSM-IV diagnosis of BD type I (mean age, 35.9 years [age range, 24-52 years]) and 25 controls (mean age, 29.5 years [age range, 19-52 years]). Main Outcome Measures - Fractional anisotropy (FA) longitudinal and radial diffusivities in subjects with BD vs controls (covarying for age) and their relationships with clinical and demographic variables. Results - Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly greater FA (t > 3.0, P = .05 corrected) in the left uncinate fasciculus (reduced radial diffusivity distally and increased longitudinal diffusivity centrally), left optic radiation (increased longitudinal diffusivity), and right anterothalamic radiation (no significant diffusivity change). Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly reduced FA (t > 3.0, P = .05 corrected) in the right uncinate fasciculus (greater radial diffusivity). Among subjects with BD, significant negative correlations (P < .01) were found between age and FA in bilateral uncinate fasciculi and in the right anterothalamic radiation, as well as between medication load and FA in the left optic radiation. Decreased FA (P < .01) was observed in the left optic radiation and in the right anterothalamic radiation among subjects with BD taking vs those not taking mood stabilizers, as well as in the left optic radiation among depressed vs remitted subjects with BD. Subjects having BD with vs without lifetime alcohol or other drug abuse had significantly decreased FA in the left uncinate fasciculus. Conclusions - To our knowledge, this is the first study to use TBSS to examine WM in subjects with BD. Subjects with BD vs controls showed greater WM FA in the left OMPFC that diminished with age and with alcohol or other drug abuse, as well as reduced WM FA in the right OMPFC. Mood stabilizers and depressed episode reduced WM FA in left-sided sensory visual processing regions among subjects with BD. Abnormal right vs left asymmetry in FA in OMPFC WM among subjects with BD, likely reflecting increased proportions of left-sided longitudinally aligned and right-sided obliquely aligned myelinated fibers, may represent a biologic mechanism for mood dysregulation in BD

Neuropsychological and neurophysiological correlates of fatigue in post-acute patients with neurological manifestations of COVID-19: Insights into a challenging symptom

More than half of patients who recover from COVID-19 experience fatigue. We studied fatigue using neuropsychological and neurophysiological investigations in post-COVID-19 patients and healthy subjects. Neuropsychological assessment included: Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), Fatigue Rating Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, Apathy Evaluation Scale, cognitive tests, and computerized tasks. Neurophysiological examination was assessed before (PRE) and 2 min after (POST) a 1-min fatiguing isometric pinching task and included: maximum compound muscle action potential (CMAP) amplitude in first dorsal interosseous muscle (FDI) following ulnar nerve stimulation, resting motor threshold, motor evoked potential (MEP) amplitude and silent period (SP) duration in right FDI following transcranial magnetic stimulation of the left motor cortex. Maximum pinch strength was measured. Perceived exertion was assessed with the Borg-Category-Ratio scale. Patients manifested fatigue, apathy, executive deficits, impaired cognitive control, and reduction in global cognition. Perceived exertion was higher in patients. CMAP and MEP were smaller in patients both PRE and POST. CMAP did not change in either group from PRE to POST, while MEP amplitudes declined in controls POST. SP duration did not differ between groups PRE, increased in controls but decreased in patients POST. Patients' change of SP duration from PRE to POST was negatively correlated to FSS. Abnormal SP shortening and lack of MEP depression concur with a reduction in post-exhaustion corticomotor inhibition, suggesting a possible GABAB-ergic dysfunction. This impairment might be related to the neuropsychological alterations. COVID-19-associated inflammation might lead to GABAergic impairment, possibly representing the basis of fatigue and explaining apathy and executive deficits

Bioderived dyes-mediated vat photopolymerization 3D printing of chitosan hydrogels for tissue engineering

The importance of 3D printable hydrogels is constantly increasing in the field of tissue engineering, due to their characteristic structure and similarity with the human body extracellular matrix (ECM). Herein, Quinizarin-based bioderived photoactive dyes were employed for the 3D printing of methacrylated chitosan by vat pho-topolymerization (VPP). Dyes are commonly needed in VPP to obtain good resolution avoiding the light scattering in the vat, here the bioderived molecules had further utility granting the printability with good resolution while acting both as photosensitizers and fillers/crosslinkers. Defined and detailed architectures in the range of millimetres were obtained with low printing times showing for the first time the possibility to obtain all-chitosan 3D structures with suspended features by Digital Light Processing (DLP), which is a form of vat photopolymerization; such a result is not achievable without the quinizarin-derived dyes. The same structures were achieved with an opti-mized concentration of poly(ethylene glycol) diacrylate, as a comparison, enhancing the resolution. For all the formulations, the important feature to obtain the gel printability (considering reactiveness, viscosity, shear thinning behaviour, mechanical properties and stability) were evaluated. The hydrogels mechanical character-ization and swelling properties were also tested and reported. Lastly, the possible application in tissue engi-neering was also evaluated through cell proliferation analysis over samples, including metabolic activity and DNA contempt assays. The use of such bioderived photoactive molecules that simultaneously act as photosensitizer enhancing the ink reactivity, as dye improving the definition of the final structures and as filler/crosslinker increasing the me-chanical stability, could represent a valuable route for the DLP printing of soft hydrogels

Challenges of diabetes prevention in the real world : results and lessons from the Melbourne diabetes prevention study

OBJECTIVE: To assess effectiveness and implementability of the public health programme Life! Taking action on diabetes in Australian people at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Melbourne Diabetes Prevention Study (MDPS) was a unique study assessing effectiveness of Life! that used a randomized controlled trial design. Intervention participants with AUSDRISK score &ge;15 received 1 individual and 5 structured 90 min group sessions. Controls received usual care. Outcome measures were obtained for all participants at baseline and 12 months and, additionally, for intervention participants at 3 months. Per protocol set (PPS) and intention to treat (ITT) analyses were performed. RESULTS: PPS analyses were considered more informative from our study. In PPS analyses, intervention participants significantly improved in weight (-1.13 kg, p=0.016), waist circumference (-1.35 cm, p=0.044), systolic (-5.2 mm Hg, p=0.028) and diastolic blood pressure (-3.2 mm Hg, p=0.030) compared with controls. Based on observed weight change, estimated risk of developing diabetes reduced by 9.6% in the intervention and increased by 3.3% in control participants. Absolute 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduced significantly for intervention participants by 0.97 percentage points from 9.35% (10.4% relative risk reduction). In control participants, the risk increased by 0.11 percentage points (1.3% relative risk increase). The net effect for the change in CVD risk was -1.08 percentage points of absolute risk (p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: MDPS effectively reduced the risk of diabetes and CVD, but the intervention effect on weight and waist reduction was modest due to the challenges in recruiting high-risk individuals and the abbreviated intervention