Population sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance for serotype 1 poliovirus in Pakistan: an observational study

Background To support poliomyelitis eradication in Pakistan, environmental surveillance (ES) of wastewater has been expanded alongside surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). ES is a relatively new method of surveillance, and the population sensitivity of detecting poliovirus within endemic settings requires estimation. Methods Data for wild serotype 1 poliovirus from AFP and ES from January 2011 to September 2015 from 14 districts in Pakistan were analysed using a multi-state model framework. This framework was used to estimate the sensitivity of poliovirus detection from each surveillance source and parameters such as the duration of infection within a community. Results The location and timing of poliomyelitis cases showed spatial and temporal variability. The sensitivity of AFP surveillance to detect serotype 1 poliovirus infection in a district and its neighbours per month was on average 30.0% (95% CI 24.8–35.8) and increased with the incidence of poliomyelitis cases. The average population sensitivity of a single environmental sample was 59.4% (95% CI 55.4–63.0), with significant variation in site-specific estimates (median varied from 33.3–79.2%). The combined population sensitivity of environmental and AFP surveillance in a given month was on average 98.1% (95% CI 97.2–98.7), assuming four samples per month for each site. Conclusions ES can be a highly sensitive supplement to AFP surveillance in areas with converging sewage systems. As ES for poliovirus is expanded, it will be important to identify factors associated with variation in site sensitivity, leading to improved site selection and surveillance system performance

The impact of information, value-deliberation and group-based decision-making on values for ecosystem services:Integrating deliberative monetary valuation and storytelling

We thank the four anonymous referees whose comments substantially helped to improve this paper. We thank Anna Attlee and Althea Davies who helped to facilitate the research workshops; Anna Attlee also for helping to analyse the qualitative data. We thank all the participants of our study for their effort, and the Marine Conservation Society, the British Sub-Aqua Club and the Angling Trust for assisting with participant recruitment. This work was funded through the UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-On (Work Package 6: Shared, Plural and Cultural Values), funded by the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Welsh Government, the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), and Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC); additional funding was received from the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation through the Marine Conservation Society. J.O. Kenter was also supported by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no 315925 and K.N. Irvine by the Scottish Government Rural and Economic Sciences and Analytical Service (RESAS) Division.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Teneurin Structures Are Composed of Ancient Bacterial Protein Domains

Pioneering bioinformatic analysis using sequence data revealed that teneurins evolved from bacterial tyrosine-aspartate (YD)-repeat protein precursors. Here, we discuss how structures of the C-terminal domain of teneurins, determined using X-ray crystallography and electron microscopy, support the earlier findings on the proteins’ ancestry. This chapter describes the structure of the teneurin scaffold with reference to a large family of teneurin-like proteins that are widespread in modern prokaryotes. The central scaffold of modern eukaryotic teneurins is decorated by additional domains typically found in bacteria, which are re-purposed in eukaryotes to generate highly multifunctional receptors. We discuss how alternative splicing contributed to further diversifying teneurin structure and thereby function. This chapter traces the evolution of teneurins from a structural point of view and presents the state-of-the-art of how teneurin function is encoded by its specific structural features

Farmer‐led badger vaccination in Cornwall: Epidemiological patterns and social perspectives

In the United Kingdom, the management of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) challenges the coexistence of people and wildlife. Control of this cattle disease is hindered by transmission of its causative agent, Mycobacterium bovis, between cattle and badgers Meles meles. Badger culling has formed an element of bTB control policy for decades, but current government policy envisions expanding badger vaccination. Farming leaders are sceptical, citing concerns that badger vaccination would be impractical and potentially ineffective. We report on a 4‐year badger vaccination initiative in an 11 km2 area which, atypically, was initiated by local farmers, delivered by scientists and conservationists, and co‐funded by all three. Participating landholders cited controversies around culling and a desire to support neighbours as their primary reasons for adopting vaccination. The number of badgers vaccinated per km2 (5.6 km−2 in 2019) exceeded the number culled on nearby land (2.9 km−2 in 2019), and the estimated proportion vaccinated (74%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 40%–137%) exceeded the 30% threshold predicted by models to be necessary to control M. bovis. Farmers were content with how vaccination was delivered, and felt that it built trust with wildlife professionals. The percentage of badgers testing positive for M. bovis declined from 16.0% (95% CI 4.5%–36.1%) at the start of vaccination to 0% (95% CI 0%–9.7%) in the final year. With neither replication nor unvaccinated controls, this small‐scale case study does not demonstrate a causal link between badger vaccination and bTB epidemiology, but it does suggest that larger‐scale evaluation of badger vaccination would be warranted. Farmers reported that their enthusiasm for badger vaccination had increased after participating for 4 years. They considered vaccination to have been effective, and good value for money, and wished to continue with it. Synthesis and applications: Although small‐scale, this case study suggests that badger vaccination can be a technically effective and socially acceptable component of bTB control. A wider rollout of badger vaccination is more likely if it is led by the farming community, rather than by conservationists or government, and is combined with scientific monitoring. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog

Shared values and deliberative valuation:Future directions

Valuation that focuses only on individual values evades the substantial collective and intersubjective meanings, significance and value from ecosystems. Shared, plural and cultural values of ecosystems constitute a diffuse and interdisciplinary field of research, covering an area that links questions around value ontology, elicitation and aggregation with questions of participation, ethics, and social justice. Synthesising understanding from various contributions to this Special Issue of Ecosystem Services, and with a particular focus on deliberation and deliberative valuation, we discuss key findings and present 35 future research questions in eight topic areas: 1) the ontology of shared values; 2) the role of catalyst and conflict points; 3) shared values and cultural ecosystem services; 4) transcendental values; 5) the process and outcomes of deliberation; 6) deliberative monetary valuation; 7) value aggregation, meta-values and ‘rules of the game’; and 8) integrating valuation methods. The results of this Special Issue and these key questions can help develop a more extensive evidence base to mature the area and develop environmental valuation into a more pluralistic, comprehensive, robust, legitimate and effective way of safeguarding ecosystems and their services for the future

Evaluating the performance of malaria genetics for inferring changes in transmission intensity using transmission modelling

Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilise these methodologies for malaria we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterised using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from 5 regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterise the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance