Thermally driven circulation in a region of complex topography: comparison of wind-profiling radar measurements and MM5 numerical predictions

The diurnal variation of regional wind patterns in the complex terrain of Central Italy was investigated for summer fair-weather conditions and winter time periods using a radar wind profiler. The profiler is located on a site where interaction between the complex topography and land-surface produces a variety of thermally and dynamically driven wind systems. The observational data set, collected for a period of one year, was used first to describe the diurnal evolution of thermal driven winds, second to validate the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) that is a three-dimensional numerical model. This type of analysis was focused on the near-surface wind observation, since thermally driven winds occur in the lower atmosphere. According to the valley wind theory expectations, the site – located on the left sidewall of the valley (looking up valley) – experiences a clockwise turning with time. Same characteristics in the behavior were established in both the experimental and numerical results. <P style="line-height: 20px;"> Because the thermally driven flows can have some depth and may be influenced mainly by model errors, as a third step the analysis focuses on a subset of cases to explore four different MM5 Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations. The reason is to test how the results are sensitive to the selected PBL parameterization, and to identify the better parameterization if it is possible. For this purpose we analysed the MM5 output for the whole PBL levels. The chosen PBL parameterizations are: 1) Gayno-Seaman; 2) Medium-Range Forecast; 3) Mellor-Yamada scheme as used in the ETA model; and 4) Blackadar

A meteorological–hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central Italy

Abstract. The weather forecasts for precipitation have considerably improved in recent years thanks to the increase of computational power. This allows for the use of both a higher spatial resolution and the parameterization schemes specifically developed for representing sub-grid scale physical processes at high resolution. However, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can impact the response of hydrological models. To the aim of improving the hydrological forecast and the characterization of related uncertainties, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. The uncertainties in the precipitation forecast and how they propagate in the hydrological model are also investigated. A meteorological–hydrological offline coupled ensemble is built to forecast events in a complex-orography terrain where catchments of different sizes are present. The Best Discharge-based Drainage (BDD; both deterministic and probabilistic) index, is defined with the aim of forecasting hydrological-stress conditions and related uncertainty. In this context, the meteorological–hydrological ensemble forecast is implemented and tested for a severe hydrological event which occurred over Central Italy on 15 November 2017, when a flood hit the Abruzzo region with precipitation reaching 200 mm (24 h)−1 and producing damages with a high impact on social and economic activities. The newly developed meteorological–hydrological ensemble is compared with a high-resolution deterministic forecast and with the observations (rain gauges and radar data) over the same area. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistical indicator shows how skilful the ensemble precipitation forecast is with respect to both rain-gauge- and radar-retrieved precipitation. Moreover, both the deterministic and probabilistic configurations of the BDD index are compared with the alert map issued by Civil Protection Department for the event showing a very good agreement. Finally, the meteorological–hydrological ensemble allows for an estimation of both the predictability of the event a few days in advance and the uncertainty of the flood. Although the modelling framework is implemented on the basins of the Abruzzo region, it is portable and applicable to other areas

Age adjustment of cancer survival rates: methods, point estimates and standard errors

We empirically evaluated the performance of a new method for age adjustment of cancer survival compared to traditional age adjustment using data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. We find that both methods provide almost identical results for absolute survival but the new method generally provides more meaningful estimates of relative survival with often a smaller standard error

Effect of left ventricular hypertrophy on long-term survival of patients with coronary artery disease following percutaneous coronary intervention

The impact of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on survival among patients with established coronary artery disease (CAD) is not well understood. We sought to evaluate the effect of LVH on the survival of patients with CAD following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Three hospitals in New York City contributed prospectively defined data on 4284 consecutive patients undergoing PCI. Allcause mortality at a mean follow-up of three years was the primary endpoint. LVH was present in 383 patients (8.9%). LVH patients had a greater prevalence of hypertension (88% vs. 68%, p<0.001), vascular disease (21% vs. 6.6%, p=0.001), and prior heart failure (10% vs. 5.5%, p<0.001). LVH patients presented less often with one-vessel disease (38% vs. 50%, p=0.040) and more often with two- (34% vs. 29%, p=0.014) or three-vessel (22% vs. 18%, p=0.044) disease. Ejection fractions and angiographic success were similar in both groups. In-hospital mortality did not differ between groups. At three-year follow-up, the survival rate for patients with LVH was 86% vs. 91% in patients without LVH (log-rank p=0.001). However, after adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics using Cox proportional hazards analysis, LVH was found not to be an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.68–1.28; p=0.67). We conclude that LVH at the time of PCI is not independently associated with an increase in the hazard of death at three years

Renin Angiotensin System Blockers and Risk of Mortality in Hypertensive Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: An Italian Registry

Background: It is uncertain whether exposure to renin\u2013angiotensin system (RAS) modifiers affects the severity of the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) because most of the available studies are retrospective. Methods: We tested the prognostic value of exposure to RAS modifiers (either angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors [ACE-Is] or angiotensin receptor blockers [ARBs]) in a prospective study of hypertensive patients with COVID-19. We analyzed data from 566 patients (mean age 75 years, 54% males, 162 ACE-Is users, and 147 ARBs users) hospitalized in five Italian hospitals. The study used systematic prospective data collection according to a pre-specified protocol. All-cause mortality during hospitalization was the primary outcome. Results: Sixty-six patients died during hospitalization. Exposure to RAS modifiers was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of in-hospital mortality when compared to other BP-lowering strategies (odds ratio [OR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.32 to 0.90, p = 0.019). Exposure to ACE-Is was not significantly associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality when compared with patients not treated with RAS modifiers (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.36 to 1.20, p = 0.172). Conversely, ARBs users showed a 59% lower risk of death (OR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.20 to 0.84, p = 0.016) even after allowance for several prognostic markers, including age, oxygen saturation, occurrence of severe hypotension during hospitalization, and lymphocyte count (adjusted OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.80, p = 0.012). The discontinuation of RAS modifiers during hospitalization did not exert a significant effect (p = 0.515). Conclusions: This prospective study indicates that exposure to ARBs reduces mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Acute effects of static and dynamic stretching on jump performance after 15 min of reconditioning shooting phase in basketball players

2016-09-15. Effects of long term stimulation of textured insoles on postural control in health elderly. In JOURNAL OF SPORTS MEDICINE AND PHYSICAL FITNESS - ISSN:0022-4707 Annino, G; Palazzo, F; Alwardat, M; Manzi, V; Lebone, P; Tancredi, V; Sinibaldi Salimei, P; Caronti... Resp. del dato : GIUSEPPE ANNINO Identificativo : hdl:2108/164271 01 - Articolo su rivista validato errore 10/11/2016 12:37 Sito docente: Success

Early mortality from colorectal cancer in England: a retrospective observational study of the factors associated with death in the first year after diagnosis

Background: The United Kingdom performs poorly in international comparisons of colorectal cancer survival with much of the deficit owing to high numbers of deaths close to the time of diagnosis. This retrospective cohort study investigates the patient, tumour and treatment characteristics of those who die in the first year after diagnosis of their disease. Methods: Patients diagnosed with colon (n=65,733) or rectal (n=26,123) cancer in England between 2006 and 2008 were identified in the National Cancer Data Repository. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the odds of death within 1 month, 1-3 months and 3-12 months after diagnosis. Results: In all, 11.5% of colon and 5.4% of rectal cancer patients died within a month of diagnosis: this proportion decreased significantly over the study period. For both cancer sites, older age, stage at diagnosis, deprivation and emergency presentation were associated with early death. Individuals who died shortly after diagnosis were also more likely to have missing data about important prognostic factors such as disease stage and treatment. Conclusion: Using routinely collected data, at no inconvenience to patients, we have identified some important areas relating to early deaths from colorectal cancer, which merit further research

Multicenter comparative multimodality surveillance of women at genetic-familial risk for breast cancer (HIBCRIT study): interim results.

PURPOSE: To prospectively compare clinical breast examination (CBE), mammography, ultrasonography (US), and contrast material-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for screening women at genetic-familial high risk for breast cancer and report interim results, with pathologic findings as standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional review board of each center approved the research; informed written consent was obtained. CBE, mammography, US, and MR imaging were performed for yearly screening of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, first-degree relatives of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, or women enrolled because of a strong family history of breast or ovarian cancer (three or more events in first- or second-degree relatives in either maternal or paternal line; these included breast cancer in women younger than 60 years, ovarian cancer at any age, and male breast cancer at any age). RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-eight women (mean age, 46 years +/- 12 [standard deviation]) were enrolled. Breast cancer was found in 11 of 278 women at first round and seven of 99 at second round (14 invasive, four intraductal; eight were <or=10 mm in diameter). Detection rate per year was 4.8% (18 of 377) overall; 4.3% (11 of 258) in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers and first-degree relatives of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers versus 5.9% (seven of 119) in women enrolled because of strong family history; and 5.3% (nine of 169) in women with previous personal breast and/or ovarian cancer versus 4.3% (nine of 208) in those without. In six (33%) of 18 patients, cancer was detected only with MR imaging. Sensitivity was as follows: CBE, 50% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 29%, 71%); mammography, 59% (95% CI: 36%, 78%); US, 65% (95% CI: 41%, 83%); and MR imaging, 94% (95% CI: 82%, 99%). Positive predictive value was as follows: CBE, 82% (95% CI: 52%, 95%); mammography, 77% (95% CI: 50%, 92%); US, 65% (95% CI: 41%, 83%); and MR imaging, 63% (95% CI: 43%, 79%). CONCLUSION: Addition of MR imaging to the screening regimen for high-risk women may enable detection of otherwise unsuspected breast cancers. (c) RSNA, 2007