Adaptation to climate change on arable farms in the Dutch province of Flevoland. An inventory for the AgriAdapt project

In Flevoland, arable farming is the most dominant land use. Adaptation options related to water, pests and diseases have been studied using a literature review. The green-blue zone Oostvaarderswold in Flevoland contributes to water storage, to nature conservation and to recreation. Compensation costs for structural wetting that are associated with various frequencies of flooding have been calculated. At inundation frequencies greater than once in 5 years, buying the agricultural land might be a better option than compensating for inundation damage or income loss. Various policies will have an effect on future agriculture in the province. A literature survey of spatial policy plans shows that urbanisation will increase and that some cities, like Almere, Lelystad, Dronten and Emmeloord, will continue to grow and expand. As a consequence, more inhabitants will require more space for nature and recreational activities, which in turn will lead to agricultural land being required

An Altered Derivatives Marketplace: Clearing Swaps Under Dodd-Frank

Though over a year has passed, the impact of the Dodd Frank Act remains unclear. This Note examines the provisions of the Act that relate to swap transactions within the context of pre-reform and postreform markets. In order to reduce the uncertainties inherent in unregulated swap transactions, the Act employs a comprehensive framework, which includes mandatory clearing through derivative clearing organizations, extensive reporting requirements, margin requirements, and position limits. This Note argues that, in doing so, the Dodd Frank Act addresses the fundamental failures of pre-reform derivative markets. However, the importance of the role for derivative clearing organizations under this framework creates a risk that these organizations will become systemically significant, mirroring problems with under-capitalized and over-exposed financial institutions in the downturn

A spatially explicit representation of conservation agriculture for application in global change studies

Conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable agricultural management strategy with the potential to alleviate some of the adverse effects of modern, industrial agriculture such as large-scale soil erosion, nutrient leaching and overexploitation of water resources. Moreover, agricultural land managed under CA is proposed to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation through reduced emission of greenhouse gases, increased solar radiation reflection, and the sustainable use of soil and water resources. Due to the lack of official reporting schemes, the amount of agricultural land managed under CA systems is uncertain and spatially explicit information about the distribution of CA required for various modeling studies is missing. Here, we present an approach to downscale present-day national-level estimates of CA to a 5 arcminute regular grid, based on multicriteria analysis. We provide a best estimate of CA distribution and an uncertainty range in the form of a low and high estimate of CA distribution, reflecting the inconsistency in CA definitions. We also design two scenarios of the potential future development of CA combining present-day data and an assessment of the potential for implementation using biophysical and socioeconomic factors. By our estimates, 122–215 Mha or 9%–15% of global arable land is currently managed under CA systems. The lower end of the range represents CA as an integrated system of permanent no-tillage, crop residue management and crop rotations, while the high estimate includes a wider range of areas primarily devoted to temporary no-tillage or reduced tillage operations. Our scenario analysis suggests a future potential of CA in the range of 533–1130 Mha (38%–81% of global arable land). Our estimates can be used in various ecosystem modeling applications and are expected to help identifying more realistic climate mitigation and adaptation potentials of agricultural practices

Modelled biophysical impacts of conservation agriculture on local climates

Including the parameterization of land management practices into Earth System Models has been shown to influence the simulation of regional climates, particularly for temperature extremes. However, recent model development has focused on implementing irrigation where other land management practices such as conservation agriculture (CA) has been limited due to the lack of global spatially explicit datasets describing where this form of management is practiced. Here, we implement a representation of CA into the Community Earth System Model and show that the quality of simulated surface energy fluxes improves when including more information on how agricultural land is managed. We also compare the climate response at the subgrid scale where CA is applied. We find that CA generally contributes to local cooling (~1°C) of hot temperature extremes in mid-latitude regions where it is practiced, while over tropical locations CA contributes to local warming (~1°C) due to changes in evapotranspiration dominating the effects of enhanced surface albedo. In particular, changes in the partitioning of evapotranspiration between soil evaporation and transpiration are critical for the sign of the temperature change: a cooling occurs only when the soil moisture retention and associated enhanced transpiration is sufficient to offset the warming from reduced soil evaporation. Finally, we examine the climate change mitigation potential of CA by comparing a simulation with present-day CA extent to a simulation where CA is expanded to all suitable crop areas. Here, our results indicate that while the local temperature response to CA is considerable cooling (>2°C), the grid-scale changes in climate are counteractive due to negative atmospheric feedbacks. Overall, our results underline that CA has a nonnegligible impact on the local climate and that it should therefore be considered in future climate projections

An evaluation of nutritional practice in a paediatric burns unit

Introduction. Burn injuries evoke a systemic metabolic response with profound effects on organ function, susceptibility to infection

Monitoring and modelling landscape dynamics

International audienceChanges in land cover and land use are among the most pervasive and important sources of recent alterations of the Earth's land surface.This special issue also presents new directions in modelling landscape dynamics. Agent-based models have primarily been used to simulate local land use and land cover changes processes with a focus on decision making (Le 2008; Matthews et al. 2007; Parker et al. 2003; Bousquet and Le Page 2001)

Lake surface temperature [in “State of the Climate in 2017”]

Observed lake surface water temperature anomalies in 2017 are placed in the context of the recent warming observed in global surface air temperature by collating long-term in situ lake surface temperature observations from some of the world’s best-studied lakes and a satellite-derived global lake surface water temperature dataset. The period 1996–2015, 20 years for which satellite-derived lake temperatures are available, is used as the base period for all lake temperature anomaly calculations