Studying stellar binary systems with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna using Delayed Rejection Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Bayesian analysis of LISA data sets based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods has been shown to be a challenging problem, in part due to the complicated structure of the likelihood function consisting of several isolated local maxima that dramatically reduces the efficiency of the sampling techniques. Here we introduce a new fully Markovian algorithm, a Delayed Rejection Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo method, to efficiently explore these kind of structures and we demonstrate its performance on selected LISA data sets containing a known number of stellar-mass binary signals embedded in Gaussian stationary noise.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, accepted in CQG (GWDAW-13 proceedings

The effects of LIGO detector noise on a 15-dimensional Markov-chain Monte-Carlo analysis of gravitational-wave signals

Gravitational-wave signals from inspirals of binary compact objects (black holes and neutron stars) are primary targets of the ongoing searches by ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) interferometers (LIGO, Virgo, and GEO-600). We present parameter-estimation results from our Markov-chain Monte-Carlo code SPINspiral on signals from binaries with precessing spins. Two data sets are created by injecting simulated GW signals into either synthetic Gaussian noise or into LIGO detector data. We compute the 15-dimensional probability-density functions (PDFs) for both data sets, as well as for a data set containing LIGO data with a known, loud artefact ("glitch"). We show that the analysis of the signal in detector noise yields accuracies similar to those obtained using simulated Gaussian noise. We also find that while the Markov chains from the glitch do not converge, the PDFs would look consistent with a GW signal present in the data. While our parameter-estimation results are encouraging, further investigations into how to differentiate an actual GW signal from noise are necessary.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, NRDA09 proceeding

Cosmic Swarms: A search for Supermassive Black Holes in the LISA data stream with a Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm

We describe a hybrid evolutionary algorithm that can simultaneously search for multiple supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) inspirals in LISA data. The algorithm mixes evolutionary computation, Metropolis-Hastings methods and Nested Sampling. The inspiral of SMBHBs presents an interesting problem for gravitational wave data analysis since, due to the LISA response function, the sources have a bi-modal sky solution. We show here that it is possible not only to detect multiple SMBHBs in the data stream, but also to investigate simultaneously all the various modes of the global solution. In all cases, the algorithm returns parameter determinations within $5\sigma$ (as estimated from the Fisher Matrix) of the true answer, for both the actual and antipodal sky solutions.Comment: submitted to Classical & Quantum Gravity. 19 pages, 4 figure

Supplement: Going the Distance: Mapping Host Galaxies of LIGO and Virgo Sources in Three Dimensions Using Local Cosmography and Targeted Follow-up

This is a supplement to the Letter of Singer et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.07333), in which we demonstrated a rapid algorithm for obtaining joint 3D estimates of sky location and luminosity distance from observations of binary neutron star mergers with Advanced LIGO and Virgo. We argued that combining the reconstructed volumes with positions and redshifts of possible host galaxies can provide large-aperture but small field of view instruments with a manageable list of targets to search for optical or infrared emission. In this Supplement, we document the new HEALPix-based file format for 3D localizations of gravitational-wave transients. We include Python sample code to show the reader how to perform simple manipulations of the 3D sky maps and extract ranked lists of likely host galaxies. Finally, we include mathematical details of the rapid volume reconstruction algorithm.Comment: For associated data release, see http://asd.gsfc.nasa.gov/Leo.Singer/going-the-distanc

Inference on inspiral signals using LISA MLDC data

In this paper we describe a Bayesian inference framework for analysis of data obtained by LISA. We set up a model for binary inspiral signals as defined for the Mock LISA Data Challenge 1.2 (MLDC), and implemented a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to facilitate exploration and integration of the posterior distribution over the 9-dimensional parameter space. Here we present intermediate results showing how, using this method, information about the 9 parameters can be extracted from the data.Comment: Accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravity, GWDAW-11 special issu

Classifying LISA gravitational wave burst signals using Bayesian evidence

We consider the problem of characterisation of burst sources detected with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) using the multi-modal nested sampling algorithm, MultiNest. We use MultiNest as a tool to search for modelled bursts from cosmic string cusps, and compute the Bayesian evidence associated with the cosmic string model. As an alternative burst model, we consider sine-Gaussian burst signals, and show how the evidence ratio can be used to choose between these two alternatives. We present results from an application of MultiNest to the last round of the Mock LISA Data Challenge, in which we were able to successfully detect and characterise all three of the cosmic string burst sources present in the release data set. We also present results of independent trials and show that MultiNest can detect cosmic string signals with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as low as ~7 and sine-Gaussian signals with SNR as low as ~8. In both cases, we show that the threshold at which the sources become detectable coincides with the SNR at which the evidence ratio begins to favour the correct model over the alternative.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, accepted by CQG; v2 has minor changes for consistency with accepted versio

Risk of criminal justice system interactions in young adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: findings from a national birth cohort

Objective: To examine criminal justice system (CJS) interactions and pathways through the justice system for young adults with ADHD compared to young adults without ADHD. Method: Nationwide 3-year birth cohort study using linked health and CJS data. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to examine associations between ADHD and police proceedings, court charges, court convictions, and incarcerations. Results: Young adults with ADHD were significantly more likely to interact with the CJS including police proceedings (hazard ratio [HR], 2.1 95% CI [2.0, 2.2]) court charges (HR, 2.2 95% CI [2.1, 2.3]), court convictions (HR, 2.3 95% CI [2.2, 2.4]), and incarceration (HR, 4.8 95% CI [4.3, 5.4]). Conclusions: Young adults with ADHD are overrepresented at all stages of the CJS. Results highlight the importance of early identification and responsivity to ADHD within the CJS and suggest that the NZ justice system may require changes to both areas to ensure that young individuals with ADHD receive equitable access to, and treatment within, the CJS

Compact Binary Coalescences in the Band of Ground-based Gravitational-Wave Detectors

As the ground-based gravitational-wave telescopes LIGO, Virgo, and GEO 600 approach the era of first detections, we review the current knowledge of the coalescence rates and the mass and spin distributions of merging neutron-star and black-hole binaries. We emphasize the bi-directional connection between gravitational-wave astronomy and conventional astrophysics. Astrophysical input will make possible informed decisions about optimal detector configurations and search techniques. Meanwhile, rate upper limits, detected merger rates, and the distribution of masses and spins measured by gravitational-wave searches will constrain astrophysical parameters through comparisons with astrophysical models. Future developments necessary to the success of gravitational-wave astronomy are discussed.Comment: Replaced with version accepted by CQG

Report on the first round of the Mock LISA Data Challenges

The Mock LISA Data Challenges (MLDCs) have the dual purpose of fostering the development of LISA data analysis tools and capabilities, and demonstrating the technical readiness already achieved by the gravitational-wave community in distilling a rich science payoff from the LISA data output. The first round of MLDCs has just been completed: nine data sets containing simulated gravitational wave signals produced either by galactic binaries or massive black hole binaries embedded in simulated LISA instrumental noise were released in June 2006 with deadline for submission of results at the beginning of December 2006. Ten groups have participated in this first round of challenges. Here we describe the challenges, summarise the results, and provide a first critical assessment of the entries.Comment: Proceedings report from GWDAW 11. Added author, added reference, clarified some text, removed typos. Results unchanged; Removed author, minor edits, reflects submitted versio

The Mock LISA Data Challenges: from Challenge 3 to Challenge 4

The Mock LISA Data Challenges are a program to demonstrate LISA data-analysis capabilities and to encourage their development. Each round of challenges consists of one or more datasets containing simulated instrument noise and gravitational waves from sources of undisclosed parameters. Participants analyze the datasets and report best-fit solutions for the source parameters. Here we present the results of the third challenge, issued in Apr 2008, which demonstrated the positive recovery of signals from chirping Galactic binaries, from spinning supermassive--black-hole binaries (with optimal SNRs between ~ 10 and 2000), from simultaneous extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (SNRs of 10-50), from cosmic-string-cusp bursts (SNRs of 10-100), and from a relatively loud isotropic background with Omega_gw(f) ~ 10^-11, slightly below the LISA instrument noise.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, proceedings of the 8th Edoardo Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves, New York, June 21-26, 200