The monetary policy rules in EU-15: before and after the euro

The objective of this paper is to identify empirically the logic behind short-term interest rates setting of: 1) the monetary authorities of the 15 EU countries before the launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and 2) the European Central Bank (ECB) and the central banks of the non-EMU participants since 1999. We find that the Taylor rule, based on the response to inflation and to the output gap, is a reasonable description of the interest rate setting for only a few economies. In addition, the foreign interest rate and the long-term interest rate are often crucial to explain short-term interest rate developments. On the contrary, the impact of other variables often proposed in the literature (exchange rates, monetary growth and asset prices) is negligible. The application of singleequation analysis to Euro area aggregate data to identify the ECB policy rule seems to suffer econometric deficiencies. Besides, we find some evidence indicating that the ECB considers also national information for its decision-making and consequently that the ECB interest-rate rule can be revealed in quasi-panel setting.monetary policy, Taylor rule, European Monetary Union, panel data

Monetary policy rules and inflation process in open emerging economies: evidence for 12 new EU members

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.open emerging economies, monetary policy rules, open economy Phillips curve, conditional inflation variance

Is Monetary Policy in New Members States Asymmetric?

Estimated Taylor rules became popular as a description of monetary policy conduct. There are numerous reasons why real monetary policy can be asymmetric and estimated Taylor rule nonlinear. This paper tests whether monetary policy can be described as asymmetric in three new European Union (EU) members (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), which apply an inflation targeting regime. Two different empirical frameworks are used: (i) a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation of models that allow discrimination between the sources of potential policy asymmetry but are conditioned by specific underlying relations (Dolado et al., 2004, 2005; Surico, 2007a,b); and (ii) a flexible framework of sample splitting where nonlinearity enters via a threshold variable and monetary policy is allowed to switch between regimes (Hansen, 2000; Caner and Hansen, 2004). We find generally little evidence for asymmetric policy driven by nonlinearities in economic systems, some evidence for asymmetric preferences and some interesting evidence on policy switches driven by the intensity of financial distress in the economy.monetary policy, inflation targeting, nonlinear Taylor rules, threshold estimation

How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) applying moment- based estimator at time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually pointing to the importance of applying time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest rate smoothing parameter is much lower that what previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules typically report. External factors matter for all countries, albeit the importance of exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates on inflation is particularly strong during the periods, when central bankers want to break the record of high inflation such as in the U.K. or in Australia at the beginning of 1980s. Contrary to common wisdom, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting suggesting the positive effect of this regime on anchoring inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence as well as policy neutral rate typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.Taylor rule, inflation targeting, monetary policy, time-varying parameter model,endogenous regressors.

Report of the 1st International Workshop of the IUGS Lower Cretaceous Ammonite Working Group

The Lower Cretaceous Ammonite Working Group forms part of the IUGS Subcommission on Cretaceous Stratigraphy (Peter Rawson, chair) and is the successor of the Lower Cretaceous Cephalopod Team that formed part of IGCP Projects 262 and 362 respectively. The latter team had organized five Workshops (Klein & Hoedemaeker, 1999;Hoedemaeker & Rawson, 2000) and this is the first workshop under the new IUGS umbrella, which was organized by Stéphane Reboulet (Université de Lyon 1) directly after the 3rd French Symposium on Stratigraphy (Lyon, 8–10 July 2002). The workshop was attended by 18 members from 13 countries. The attendants agreed to call the group the ‘Kilian Group' after the famous French palaeontologist W. Kilian.Fil: Hoedemaeker, Philip J.. National Museum of Natural History; Países BajosFil: Reboulet, Stéphane. Universite´ Claude Bernard Lyon 1; FranciaFil: Aguirre-Urreta, Maria Beatriz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; ArgentinaFil: Alsen, Peter. Universidad de Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: Aoutem, Mohamed. Université d’Agadir Faculté des Sciences; MarruecosFil: Atrops, François. Universite´ Claude Bernard Lyon 1; FranciaFil: Barragan, Ricardo. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: González Arreola, Celestina. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Klein, Jaap. No especifica;Fil: Lukeneder, Alexander. Universidad de Viena; AustriaFil: Ploch, Isabela. Polish Geological Institute; PoloniaFil: Raisossadat, Seyed Naser. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino UnidoFil: Rawson, Peter F.. University Of Birjand; IránFil: Ropolo, Pierre. No especifica;Fil: Vasícek, Zdenek. VSB Inst. Geological Engineering; República ChecaFil: Vermeulen, Jean. No especifica;Fil: Wippich, Max G.E.. Ruhr Universität Bochum; Alemani

Sea-level reconstructions from the Peri-Vocontian Zone (South-east France) point to Valanginian glacio-eustasy

International audienceThe Valanginian is a period of global environmental change as illustrated by sedimentary, palaeontological, geochemical and climatic perturbations. A production crisis in most of the carbonate platforms suggests important changes in palaeoenvironmental conditions. During the same time interval, a major positive excursion in delta 13C, the Weissert Event, suggests perturbations of the carbon cycle from the latest Early Valanginian to the Early Hauterivian. In order to better understand the link between these changes, sea-level fluctuations have been reconstructed in detail from the Middle Berriasian to the earliest Hauterivian. Sections from the Peri-Vocontian Zone (South-east France) have been investigated because of the good quality of outcrops on the carbonate platforms, their margins and in the Vocontian Basin. Sections ranging from the most proximal zone (Swiss Jura) to the basin were interpreted in terms of sequence stratigraphy and cyclostratigraphy, and correlated at high resolutions. Using the identified small, medium and large-scale sequences as well as depositional geometries, sea-level fluctuations were reconstructed. Two main trends are evidenced during the studied interval: (i) the peak amplitude (magnitude) of the sea-level fluctuations increased gradually from the Middle Berriasian to the Early Valanginian, and reached a maximum (more than 50 m) from the middle Early Valanginian to the Valanginian/Hauterivian boundary; and (ii) sea-level variations were quite symmetrical during the Late Berriasian, slightly asymmetrical during the Early Valanginian and strongly asymmetrical (fast sea-level rise, slow fall) from the latest Early Valanginian to the earliest Hauterivian. Moreover, three orders of sea-level fluctuations were recognized in the sedimentary rocks of the Peri-Vocontian Zone. Platform-basin correlations and cyclostratigraphic interpretations of the basinal sections evidence an astronomical control on the sea-level variations, mainly by the two eccentricity cycles of 100 and 400 kyr. The increase in the amplitude of the sea-level fluctuations and their change from symmetrical to asymmetrical can be related to the onset of a major cooling event in the Early Valanginian. Fast transgressions followed by slower regressions would correspond to waxing and waning of high-latitudinal ice during most of the Valanginian, especially from the latest Early Valanginian to the latest Late Valanginian. Glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations in tune with the 100 and 400 kyr eccentricity cycles are in agreement with glaciations during the Valanginia