Detecting and quantifying methane emissions from oil and gas production: algorithm development with ground-truth calibration based on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery

Sentinel-2 satellite imagery has been shown by studies to be capable of detecting and quantifying methane emissions from oil and gas production. However, current methods lack performance calibration with ground-truth testing. This study developed a multi-band–multi-pass–multi-comparison-date methane retrieval algorithm that enhances Sentinel-2 sensitivity to methane plumes. The method was calibrated using data from a large-scale controlled-release test in Ehrenberg, Arizona, in fall 2021, with three algorithm parameters tuned based on the true emission rates. Tuned parameters are the pixel-level concentration upper-bound threshold during extreme value removal, the number of comparison dates, and the pixel-level methane concentration percentage threshold when determining the spatial extent of a plume. We found that a low value of the upper-bound threshold during extreme value removal can result in false negatives. A high number of comparison dates helps enhance the algorithm sensitivity to the plumes in the target date, but values in excess of 12 d are neither necessary nor computationally efficient. A high percentage threshold when determining the spatial extent of a plume helps enhance the quantification accuracy, but it may harm the yes/no detection accuracy. We found that there is a trade-off between quantification accuracy and detection accuracy. In a scenario with the highest quantification accuracy, we achieved the lowest quantification error and had zero false-positive detections; however, the algorithm missed three true plumes, which reduced the yes/no detection accuracy. In contrast, all of the true plumes were detected in the highest detection accuracy scenario, but the emission rate quantification had higher errors. We illustrated a two-step method that updates the emission rate estimates in an interim step, which improves quantification accuracy while keeping high yes/no detection accuracy. We also validated the algorithm's ability to detect true positives and true negatives in two application studies.</p

Quantifying methane point sources from fine-scale satellite observations of atmospheric methane plumes

Anthropogenic methane emissions originate from a large number of relatively small point sources. The planned GHGSat satellite fleet aims to quantify emissions from individual point sources by measuring methane column plumes over selected ∼ 10×10&thinsp;km2 domains with  ≤ 50×50&thinsp;m2 pixel resolution and 1&thinsp;%–5&thinsp;% measurement precision. Here we develop algorithms for retrieving point source rates from such measurements. We simulate a large ensemble of instantaneous methane column plumes at 50×50&thinsp;m2 pixel resolution for a range of atmospheric conditions using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) in large eddy simulation (LES) mode and adding instrument noise. We show that standard methods to infer source rates by Gaussian plume inversion or source pixel mass balance are prone to large errors because the turbulence cannot be properly parameterized on the small scale of instantaneous methane plumes. The integrated mass enhancement (IME) method, which relates total plume mass to source rate, and the cross-sectional flux method, which infers source rate from fluxes across plume transects, are better adapted to the problem. We show that the IME method with local measurements of the 10&thinsp;m wind speed can infer source rates with an error of 0.07–0.17&thinsp;t&thinsp;h−1 + 5&thinsp;%–12&thinsp;% depending on instrument precision (1&thinsp;%–5&thinsp;%). The cross-sectional flux method has slightly larger errors (0.07–0.26&thinsp;t&thinsp;h−1 + 8&thinsp;%–12&thinsp;%) but a simpler physical basis. For comparison, point sources larger than 0.3&thinsp;t&thinsp;h−1 contribute more than 75&thinsp;% of methane emissions reported to the US Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. Additional error applies if local wind speed measurements are not available and may dominate the overall error at low wind speeds. Low winds are beneficial for source detection but detrimental for source quantification.</p

FGF4 retrogene on CFA12 is responsible for chondrodystrophy and intervertebral disc disease in dogs.

Chondrodystrophy in dogs is defined by dysplastic, shortened long bones and premature degeneration and calcification of intervertebral discs. Independent genome-wide association analyses for skeletal dysplasia (short limbs) within a single breed (PBonferroni = 0.01) and intervertebral disc disease (IVDD) across breeds (PBonferroni = 4.0 × 10-10) both identified a significant association to the same region on CFA12. Whole genome sequencing identified a highly expressed FGF4 retrogene within this shared region. The FGF4 retrogene segregated with limb length and had an odds ratio of 51.23 (95% CI = 46.69, 56.20) for IVDD. Long bone length in dogs is a unique example of multiple disease-causing retrocopies of the same parental gene in a mammalian species. FGF signaling abnormalities have been associated with skeletal dysplasia in humans, and our findings present opportunities for both selective elimination of a medically and financially devastating disease in dogs and further understanding of the ever-growing complexity of retrogene biology

Dephasing-induced diffusive transport in anisotropic Heisenberg model

We study transport properties of anisotropic Heisenberg model in a disordered magnetic field experiencing dephasing due to external degrees of freedom. In the absence of dephasing the model can display, depending on parameter values, the whole range of possible transport regimes: ideal ballistic conduction, diffusive, or ideal insulating behavior. We show that the presence of dephasing induces normal diffusive transport in a wide range of parameters. We also analyze the dependence of spin conductivity on the dephasing strength. In addition, by analyzing the decay of spin-spin correlation function we discover a presence of long-range order for finite chain sizes. All our results for a one-dimensional spin chain at infinite temperature can be equivalently rephrased for strongly-interacting disordered spinless fermions.Comment: 15 pages, 9 PS figure

Evaluation of a candidate breast cancer associated SNP in ERCC4 as a risk modifier in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Results from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/BRCA2 (CIMBA)

Background: In this study we aimed to evaluate the role of a SNP in intron 1 of the ERCC4 gene (rs744154), previously reported to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in the general population, as a breast cancer risk modifier in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Methods: We have genotyped rs744154 in 9408 BRCA1 and 5632 BRCA2 mutation carriers from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) and assessed its association with breast cancer risk using a retrospective weighted cohort approach. Results: We found no evidence of association with breast cancer risk for BRCA1 (per-allele HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.93–1.04, P=0.5) or BRCA2 (per-allele HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89–1.06, P=0.5) mutation carriers. Conclusion: This SNP is not a significant modifier of breast cancer risk for mutation carriers, though weak associations cannot be ruled out. A Osorio1, R L Milne2, G Pita3, P Peterlongo4,5, T Heikkinen6, J Simard7, G Chenevix-Trench8, A B Spurdle8, J Beesley8, X Chen8, S Healey8, KConFab9, S L Neuhausen10, Y C Ding10, F J Couch11,12, X Wang11, N Lindor13, S Manoukian4, M Barile14, A Viel15, L Tizzoni5,16, C I Szabo17, L Foretova18, M Zikan19, K Claes20, M H Greene21, P Mai21, G Rennert22, F Lejbkowicz22, O Barnett-Griness22, I L Andrulis23,24, H Ozcelik24, N Weerasooriya23, OCGN23, A-M Gerdes25, M Thomassen25, D G Cruger26, M A Caligo27, E Friedman28,29, B Kaufman28,29, Y Laitman28, S Cohen28, T Kontorovich28, R Gershoni-Baruch30, E Dagan31,32, H Jernström33, M S Askmalm34, B Arver35, B Malmer36, SWE-BRCA37, S M Domchek38, K L Nathanson38, J Brunet39, T Ramón y Cajal40, D Yannoukakos41, U Hamann42, HEBON37, F B L Hogervorst43, S Verhoef43, EB Gómez García44,45, J T Wijnen46,47, A van den Ouweland48, EMBRACE37, D F Easton49, S Peock49, M Cook49, C T Oliver49, D Frost49, C Luccarini50, D G Evans51, F Lalloo51, R Eeles52, G Pichert53, J Cook54, S Hodgson55, P J Morrison56, F Douglas57, A K Godwin58, GEMO59,60,61, O M Sinilnikova59,60, L Barjhoux59,60, D Stoppa-Lyonnet61, V Moncoutier61, S Giraud59, C Cassini62,63, L Olivier-Faivre62,63, F Révillion64, J-P Peyrat64, D Muller65, J-P Fricker65, H T Lynch66, E M John67, S Buys68, M Daly69, J L Hopper70, M B Terry71, A Miron72, Y Yassin72, D Goldgar73, Breast Cancer Family Registry37, C F Singer74, D Gschwantler-Kaulich74, G Pfeiler74, A-C Spiess74, Thomas v O Hansen75, O T Johannsson76, T Kirchhoff77, K Offit77, K Kosarin77, M Piedmonte78, G C Rodriguez79, K Wakeley80, J F Boggess81, J Basil82, P E Schwartz83, S V Blank84, A E Toland85, M Montagna86, C Casella87, E N Imyanitov88, A Allavena89, R K Schmutzler90, B Versmold90, C Engel91, A Meindl92, N Ditsch93, N Arnold94, D Niederacher95, H Deißler96, B Fiebig97, R Varon-Mateeva98, D Schaefer99, U G Froster100, T Caldes101, M de la Hoya101, L McGuffog49, A C Antoniou49, H Nevanlinna6, P Radice4,5 and J Benítez1,3 on behalf of CIMB

The Slavic NBN founder mutation: a role for reproductive fitness?

The vast majority of patients with Nijmegen Breakage Syndrome (NBS) are of Slavic origin and carry a deleterious deletion (c.657del5; rs587776650) in the NBN gene on chromosome 8q21. This mutation is essentially confined to Slavic populations and may thus be considered a Slavic founder mutation. Notably, not a single parenthood of a homozygous c.657del5 carrier has been reported to date, while heterozygous carriers do reproduce but have an increased cancer risk. These observations seem to conflict with the considerable carrier frequency of c.657del5 of 0.5% to 1% as observed in different Slavic populations because deleterious mutations would be eliminated quite rapidly by purifying selection. Therefore, we propose that heterozygous c.657del5 carriers have increased reproductive success, i.e., that the mutation confers heterozygote advantage. In fact, in our cohort study of the reproductive history of 24 NBS pedigrees from the Czech Republic, we observed that female carriers gave birth to more children on average than female non-carriers, while no such reproductive differences were observed for males. We also estimate that c.657del5 likely occurred less than 300 generations ago, thus supporting the view that the original mutation predated the historic split and subsequent spread of the 'Slavic people'. We surmise that the higher fertility of female c.657del5 carriers reflects a lower miscarriage rate in these women, thereby reflecting the role of the NBN gene product, nibrin, in the repair of DNA double strand breaks and their processing in immune gene rearrangements, telomere maintenance, and meiotic recombination, akin to the previously described role of the DNA repair genes BRCA1 and BRCA2

Automated detection and monitoring of methane super-emitters using satellite data

A reduction in anthropogenic methane emissions is vital to limit near-term global warming. A small number of so-called super-emitters is responsible for a disproportionally large fraction of total methane emissions. Since late 2017, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) has been in orbit, providing daily global coverage of methane mixing ratios at a resolution of up to 7×5.5 km2, enabling the detection of these super-emitters. However, TROPOMI produces millions of observations each day, which together with the complexity of the methane data, makes manual inspection infeasible. We have therefore designed a two-step machine learning approach using a convolutional neural network to detect plume-like structures in the methane data and subsequently apply a support vector classifier to distinguish the emission plumes from retrieval artifacts. The models are trained on pre-2021 data and subsequently applied to all 2021 observations. We detect 2974 plumes in 2021, with a mean estimated source rate of 44 t h−1 and 5–95th percentile range of 8–122 t h−1. These emissions originate from 94 persistent emission clusters and hundreds of transient sources. Based on bottom-up emission inventories, we find that most detected plumes are related to urban areas and/or landfills (35 %), followed by plumes from gas infrastructure (24 %), oil infrastructure (21 %), and coal mines (20 %). For 12 (clusters of) TROPOMI detections, we tip and cue the targeted observations and analysis of high-resolution satellite instruments to identify the exact sources responsible for these plumes. Using high-resolution observations from GHGSat, PRISMA, and Sentinel-2, we detect and analyze both persistent and transient facility-level emissions underlying the TROPOMI detections. We find emissions from landfills and fossil fuel exploitation facilities, and for the latter, we find up to 10 facilities contributing to one TROPOMI detection. Our automated TROPOMI-based monitoring system in combination with high-resolution satellite data allows for the detection, precise identification, and monitoring of these methane super-emitters, which is essential for mitigating their emissions.</p